Socialists Locked In an Emrace With Radicals

All Belgrade chroniclers believe that Vojislav Seselj (leader of the Serbian Radical Party-SRS) is well informed and that academician and President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Dobrica Cosic will be dishonored and relieved as head of state, and that this task cannot be left to the leader of the Serbian Radicals, but that it must be carried out by some trustworthy person from one's own ranks. It is not yet certain that the Serbian authorities wish to remove President Cosic from office right now. A recently released US State Department report on human rights in Serbia and Montenegro, says that "after the London Conference President Cosic and Federal Prime Minister at the time Milan Panic condemned ethnic cleansing," and that "federal officials promised to step up measures against nationalist Serbian paramilitary groups." The report is also critical because the "federal authorities arrested only a few persons, and did not oppose the most disreputable leaders who are believed to have special links with President Slobodan Milosevic." Will he, whose amnesty was urged by Cyrus Vance in order that a peace might be signed, continue to be an open and consistent protector of extremists? Milosevic has certainly not forgotten Cosic's wavering ahead of the 1992 elections and his spiritless support of Panic, and perhaps he has not forgotten that Cosic saved him in June 1992 (under the students' and DEPOS protests) when his back was up against the wall. Cosic holds the foreign policy initiative in Geneva and communicates with Moscow with which Milosevic does not have any communication. After the 1991 putsch in Moscow, it pleases Milosevic to have Seselj irritate Cosic, but it is hardly likely that he will take part, because Seselj is accusing Cosic of things he and Milosevic did together in Geneva.

A new arrangement, organized with the usual parliamentary scandal is more probably aimed at the future Federal Prime Minister, who according to some assumptions is Radoje Kontic from Montenegro.

Because of objections regarding the regularity of the December elections, the opposition is still wondering whether to accept the mandates. When they could not stand the humiliation in the Serbian parliament any more, opposition deputies followed leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) Vojislav Kostunica and walked out. For several days, Kostunica kept saying that this move would expose the Socialist-Radical authorities in Serbia. After a short while it proved that the action had not been well thought out and the whole thing soon reached an impasse. The Montenegrin parties were very restrained in their reaction to a DEPOS letter which warned of the loss of balance in the federation. They hope to set up a workable coalition with the Socialists, who, however, have a tacit coalition with the Radicals, friends of Russian atamans, strong opponents of Montenegrins and the democratic pro-Western center, who, with the Montenegrins in the federal parliament, will represent a coalition out of necessity.

Last week's embrace between the Socialists and Radicals in the Serbian parliament was truly affectionate; they were content while waiting for "those to leave," calling "And don't come back," after the departing DEPOS members.

The sincerity of the embrace is psychologically loaded with a Socialist-Radical hatred of the educated and polymorphous democratic center, which President Milosevic obviously regards as a destabilizing factor in Serbia.

After the elections President Milosevic told the nation that an attempt at destabilizing Serbia had failed. He has obviously decided to smash the center, and is partly successful in this because of the opposition's disintegration after defeat at the elections. The Social Democrats are falling apart, there is no coordination between DEPOS and Micunovic's Democrats, DEPOS members are drifting apart, and no trust has been built up with the Montenegrins.

The December 1992 elections proved that none of Serbia's internal problems had been resolved or alleviated and this nakedness should sooner or later prove to be intolerable. There is a risk that a vindictive rule will continue to function without any complications in parliament and that it will encourage growing repression and so increase resistance in society. Vojislav Kostunica who seems to be setting the tempo of the opposition's resistance, said several days later at the protest evenings at the Writers Club, that Poland's Solidarity was a model the Serbian opposition should consider. In spite of the fact that no serious organization has grown up in these areas, or trade union, this idea is upheld by growing social tensions, the activities of weak independent trade unions, a growing dissatisfaction among those working in public institutions where purges and intimidation were carried through speedily during the post-election depression (theaters, television, university, schools, health institutions). Seselj felt what the authorities needed and launched an all out persecution of independent trade unions questioning the national origin of the leaders, and not allowing Belgrade Television independent trade union leaders to enter the building.

It seems that civic resistance to fascistization is starting to consolidate somewhat, and after the attack on actor Irfan Mensur, Belgrade is on the way to finding its anti-chauvinist soul.

While there was enough space to calm down social discontent with a high inflation, this social dynamite was not a problem for the ruling Socialists who have so far managed to keep group after group in a state of narcosis resulting from small victories of the type "Great, we got a 56% salary rise."

The Radicals could rule in such a situation with the introduction of a wartime communism, and talk of equality in poverty, on condition that the Socialists' authority has not fallen apart and they manage to organize a seemingly efficient and just distribution of essential goods. It is difficult to this while the black market is tolerated and the citizens are turned into law breakers and potential culprits. This state of affairs could perfidiously postpone an outburst of popular anger against the nouveau riche who are protected by the authorities. In a situation, when a catastrophe cannot be controlled, Milosevic's regime has declared a drive against crime. But, Milosevic's followers are locked in an embrace with the Radicals, and he is not doing anything.