The War Continues

The armed conflict in the southern part of the UN protected area, or, the southern part of the Republic of Serbian Krajina, after Croatia's ceasefire violation, is entering into the third week and the end is not in sight. Neither side wishes to depart from proclaimed goals: Croatia wants to hold onto captured territory and the Republic of Serbian Krajina wants the situation back to what it was before January 22. Apart from battles in Zadar's hinterland, the Skradina area has become a battlefield, while information arriving from the vicinity of Drnis and the Peruca dam now controlled by Croatia, speak of sporadic incidents. The Croatian army says that it considers the conflict over and has proposed a new demarcation line which would run from the Male Bobije saddle above Jasenica and Obrovac over Przun hill, above Gornji Karin to the elevation Vijenac above Nadine and Lisanj Tinjski. The military authorities in Knin do not agree and claim that Croatian attacks continue in the following directions: Zadar-Benkovac, Sibenik-Kistanje, Skabrnja-Benkovac, Maslenica-Obrovac, and Muc-Petrovo Polje near Drnis. Apart from fierce battles deploying armored units and heavy artillery, and a large number of casualties, the Republic of Serbian Krajina has warned that Croatian troops are being concentrated in Kordun and Banija. At the same time, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia continues with diplomatic pressures, and has asked the UN to force Croatia to accept Security Council Resolution 802. Politicians are striving to keep the conflict under control. The Yugoslav Army continues to exert "restraint" and is restricting itself to allowing volunteers to go to the front, primarily officers who originate from the Krajina, including all those who so wish, but each new day brings the threat of an escalation of conflicts.

The Zagreb weekly GLOBUS surveyed 400 citizens of Zagreb, and the results show that 81.2 % of those polled uphold the military operation in the Maslenica gorge. The polled believe that the other parts of Croatia should be recaptured by military actions (74.5%), while only 50% think that Croatia is ready to continue with the war. The question: Will Yugoslavia intervene in the event of further actions by the Croatian army?, gave the following results: 40.8% said "yes", 30.5% said "no", 24.5% said "I don't know", and 4.2% said they did not want to answer. The team which carried out the survey has concluded that citizens of other nationalities (18% of the polled), with the exception of Moslems, generally do not approve the action in the Maslenica gorge.

Croatia's new media star is Croatian National Guard General and Chief of the General Staff Janko Bobetko. Headlines call him the "general who makes Serbian Krajina tremble" and "the general who has saved Croatia's reputation." His capacity to analyze, his thoroughness and excellent planning are underscored, and are considered to have been fully expressed in the January 22 action. Before being promoted to Chief of the General Staff, General Bobetko (74) had fought in Herzegovina and was in command of the so-called South battlefield in the Dubrovnik hinterland. The culmination of his efforts at the time was the withdrawal of the Yugoslav Army from Konavle and Prevlaka.

During his election tour of Dalmatia, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman did not refrain from making aggressive statements. In Karlobag, he said that Croatia was in those "borders which even Ante Starcevic, the father of the nation had not dreamt of," and that "soon every foot of Croatian land would be free." In Split, Tudjman said that "if UN forces do not allow us to set up total sovereignty, we will liberate Drnis, Benkovac, Obrovac and Knin," and that "the exact date and hour would be determined when the least number of victims would be claimed."

The current battles are characterized by artillery duels. After the first few days, infantry clashes have been reduced to isolated sectors and showdowns between sabotage groups. Volunteers continue to arrive and it has been learned that they play an important role. The "Tigers" led by Zeljko Raznjatovic Arkan control points around Benkovac and Obrovac, the most vulnerable towns in Krajina. Arkan said on TV Knin that he intended to swim in the sea at Zadar.

UNPROFOR Force Commander General Satish Nambiar said after a meeting with General Zivota Panic that he did not believe that the Yugoslav Army would intervene. Nambiar said that the peacekeeping forces were trying to contain the conflict and that they had been given assurances by the Croatian authorities that a military operation aimed at capturing more territory would not be continued. In accordance with this, UNPROFOR civilian police stations have been set up again in all municipalities in Krajina where they had stopped work for several days. The concentration of Croatian troops on the borders of western Slavonija, Banija and Kordun, led Argentine general Zambala to deploy his troops along the demarcation line. UNPROFOR Director of Civil Affairs Cedric Thornberry said that detonations could be heard in the vicinity of Karlovac and that an UNPROFOR armored transporter had run over anti-personnel mines in the village of Turanj near Karlovac. It is not known who laid the mines. Thornberry believes that battles will continue because the Croatian army has not captured all it planned to, and because the Krajina authorities do not wish to accept the new situation. It is underscored that the battles are of a lesser intensity, and that both sides have barred the presence of UN observers near the frontlines.

UNPROFOR spokeswoman Shannon Boyd confirmed on February 4 in Zagreb that Serbian delegations from the Republic of Serbian Krajina led by Goran Hadzic would meet with representatives of the Croatian authorities in New York, and as learned unofficially, with Croatian Defence Minister Gojko Susak. How much can be expected from these negotiations? Information from Ravni Kotari speak of continued battles and new victims. It remains uncertain if the conflict will spread. Serbian sources say that Croatian troops are being concentrated in the western areas under UNPROFOR protection, and that a Croatian plane which had dropped two bombs, was downed in the vicinity of the village of Mirkovci (Eastern Slavonija) on February 4. The authorities in Zagreb are under international pressure, above all from Western Europe which demands an end to military operations, and support of Vance and Owen's peace plan.