The Sarajevo Plug

The whole world has shrunk somehow and is lacking in seriousness since it started meddling in Yugoslav affairs and started roaming through Balkan brothels, and especially so since it has started unravelling the bloody Bosnian knot. Bosnia has definitely become a planetary problem. Everyone has an opinion, and half the world believes that it is affected in some way and directly interested in the outcome. As if the globe were a balloon and the plug somewhere in Sarajevo. As if the shells have damaged it a little, deflating it and leaving the world a little shrunk.

It is said that there are no more local wars, and that this is especially true of conflicts in Europe and the Balkans. The Bosnian war has alarmed all its neighbors, then first some and later all the countries of the European Community, Islamic countries, Russia and America. This time it is not so much a matter of a geographically and strategically important area, because Balkan roads have long lost in importance and don't lead anywhere any more. The matter pertains more to a historical knot which easily brings back memories of old enemities and alliances: religious, political, cultural and military. And that is why in the year of Europe's great unification, Yugoslavia's disintegration and the war in Bosnia, have made all suspicious of each other again, and there is a growing fear of some great national monster emerging.

The war here will not, in itself, change the main European and world developments, but the will for separation and ethnic purity have uncovered, as in a mirror, the existence of this same will and motives in many places in a Europe full of historical seams and cracks. The builders of a united Europe still believe that issues here are limited to the awakening of tribal atavisms, a post-communist insanity and a pointless repetition of history in the Balkans. But, in spite of all this, this war is starting to look rather European and not all that old fashioned.

Bosnia has shown that Europe does not exist, something no one here was aware of, and this greatly stimulated the war. Europe was the source of contradictory messages, empty threats, false promises: there will be an intervention, there will not be, we will recognize, we will never accept... All this was interpreted here as the voice of Europe and all could find something favorable and encouraging. Had this been a small skirmish, and had none wanted war, Europe's stand would have started it. It was expected that Europe would make the final judgement, but it turned out that Milosevic and Karadzic who had paid the least attention to Europe, the arbiter, fared best.

The world's survival mechanism has been set in motion, but only after the war has become an insoluble problem. Vance and Owen's plan has been drawn up as if there is and there isn't a Bosnia, the people have been separated and they haven't, so that it all looks like a reasonable compromise; but also a punishment for the people who are supposed to live in such a state. Naturally, Karadzic did not get a territorial whole, not because the ethnic map was followed blindly, or because it was necessary to punish the most aggressive side, but in order to make the Serbs vitally interested in Bosnia's survival. The proposed maps are supposed to direct the future state towards integration and not disintegration.

This is where things tripped up. Karadzic and his Belgrade allies cannot renounce their initial idea of a State of all Serbs, and that is why they need those famous corridors; and a Serbia under sanctions has less willpower and money for continuing the war. But, while one has military superiority, it is difficult to let go of a nearly fulfilled dream.

This is the moment when, young and innocent, Bill Clinton enters the scene, resolved to put an end to this European mess. The American public is boiling over with moral indignation, but the best opportunity for a decisive, morally-inspired action has already passed. For the greatest part, ethnic cleansing has already been carried out and Izetbegovic does not look so innocent and helpless as in the beginning. The planes are not flying all that much, and there is little that can be put back as it was before. Clinton also finds the whole world already involved in this war.

All expect America to do something, even the Americans. The new President has promised to devote himself to domestic affairs more than his predecessor did; to finding a way out of the recession, to modernizing education and health services. He has just unpacked, and he finds Vance and Owen waiting with their plan for Bosnia. All the others follow: Europe, claiming that the plan is good and it only remains for the U.S. to carry it through; Turkey and the Islamic countries claiming that the plan is repulsive and that the Serbs should be bombed, or that Moslems should at least be given arms; Russia pleading that Karadzic should be treated gently because he has a lot of influential cousins in Moscow. In short, one big family.

In America Clinton is being advised to go cautiously and to think of American interests, i.e., to be daring, to protect the world order and moral principles, and punish the Serb bullies. Clinton seems to have diligently gathered together all these arguments, and determined the specific gravity of all the forces across Bosnia, and put all this into a computer which came up with the six-point plan. There is something for everyone: America is becoming active and is sending its man to the negotiations; Vance and Owen's plan is supported in principle; military intervention remains in principle; sanctions against Belgrade are tightened; and war criminals will be judged, in principle.

All the active participants in Bosnia say they are satisfied with the judgment, since they all want to look like winners, and know that it is not wise to quarrel with the man who will be in the White House for the next four years. The Serbs fared the worst, but not as badly as they feared. Disappointment is being expressed only by Turkey and those political moralists who expected the Serbs to be punished more seriously. But, America has dealt Bosnia as much justice as was possible right now.

Clinton was under great pressure and on the verge of opting for a military action, but has abandoned it, for the moment. It seems that those who claim that Russia's stand on the matter was more decisive are right, and not only because of it still has too many nuclear heads. The fact remains that the disintegration of the communist empire has shaken the West and America to such an extent that none are capable of foreseeing all the consequences. Two blocs, two worlds, two ideologies supported one another in various ways. A great part of the Western structure was based on the Soviet Union as a stable and familiar opponent. But, it turned out that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, America itself has become effectively weaker and less sure of its own values and advantages.

Regarding the Bosnian war it was necessary to think of the fate of the whole world, because this war is aimed against the world order. The offered solution tries not to disturb this order, but it does disturb this war which is still going strong, which means that some force and coercion will be necessary. It will be very difficult for the Serbs, and there will be little cause for celebration in Bosnia and Croatia. The idea of setting up a joint state in Bosnia doubtless seems equally monstrous and impossible to all warring sides. This is something even those who refused to take up arms have stopped believing in. But, all must be given time to calm down.

Vance and Owen's plan and Clinton's platform count on time and look at the whole issue from a level-headed and more precise vantage. This is not the first war, nor the first crimes and innocent victims. And we can take their word that Bosnia can look, after all, as they drew it. They will convince us, if only temporarily, that life is lived out of interest, in order that we might stop trying to persuade them that it is much better to surrender to passion.