Dafina Dances With Interest Rates

Among the numerous speculations and doubts concerning the first arrests and the flight of Jezdimir Vasiljevic, but certainly also the systematic launching of "reliable" information from various sources, only one thing is certain - even well informed sources within the authorities do not have precise information about what is really happening. Does this point to an extremely well prepared political and police action, or is the majority dumbfound simply because there is no system any more?

There is no doubt that the main question in Belgrade, and further, has lately been: who is next? In this regard it is less important which name will next be included in the chronicle of crime. The important thing is whether the next person to be accused will be able to point to the main target of the promised fight against corruption and crime. Namely, it should be recalled that the head of the Serbian state has never made "empty" promises concerning arrests. This time too, he has strong reasons to keep his word. The most often mentioned are one international and one domestic reason. The first one is to draw the domestic public's attention, according to the classical recipe, to the hoodlums in their own ranks while crucial talks on the war in Bosnia are taking place, that is while Slobodan Milosevic is getting increasingly open and sharp warnings from Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic (it is rumored that, after the latest round of the talks in New York, there was a strong disagreement between Karadzic and Milosevic because the leader of the Bosnian Serbs did not sign the Vance-Owen proposals).

On the domestic plane there is nothing more important than the economic collapse. Everything has been drained out, for which the previous Serbian prime minister excellently served his purpose, so that some kind of war-time economy is now in order. It is good to use as an explanation for this, apart from the world conspiracy in the form sanctions, also domestic thieves. Of course, this does not mean that they do not exist, primarily and naturally, in circles of the authorities, but in order to pass a definite judgement on this, one should wait at least for some kind of investigative and court procedure.

So, who is next, that is, who is the boss? The most frequently mentioned name is that of former Serbian prime minister Radoman Bozovic. There are usually two stories linked to him. The first one is a minor one: it refers to an imported "Mercedes" he recently got. The second is of a general nature and it ranges from years of business partnership and friendship with arrested former Serbian Minister Sava Vlajkovic, to claims that it was he who made the former minister a member of both the provincial and the republican governments. In other words, Bozovic at least had to know what this minister, who was very close to him, was doing. But this already borders on morality, and connoisseurs do not expect Bozovic to react to such stimuli, and especially not to resign from his present post because of the moral responsibility for having led a government from which two ministers are now behind bars. However, a small number of those who are, to all intents and purposes, acquainted with the situation, do not take Bozovic seriously, and do not see him as the next participant in informal talks - and especially not as the main target of the present action. From this point of view, there are people in the republican government itself who are much more important than was the former prime minister. The reason for this does not lie in the classical importance of certain ministries, or it does not lie only there, but it is primarily to be sought in the excessive stratification and turmoil in the army and police. The defense minister would have to be acquainted with the whereabouts of oil, or, also according to the job description, the civilian head of the police should know what is happening among the employees in uniform. Furthermore, Bozovic's name is way behind all the others that are being linked to money laundering, arms dealing, and even international fraternization as a screen for such business (that is why Klara Mandic, president of the Society of Serbian-Jewish friendship is among the favorites).

Is the war really coming to an end? Business with oil has lately come to the forefront as the main field for various machinations. A lot of false information is circulating among the public, say those who are familiar with the situation, but they refuse to say what is true. However, for example, one does not need a very long memory to remember the debates in Bozovic's government over whether business with oil should be retained for several "of our own" firms or to let everyone who proves to be skillful to take them. Perhaps what we have now is a struggle within the bodies of authority for control over oil? Perhaps it is for this reason that Boss Jezda became dispensable, although those who know claim that oil, and especially exchange bureaux were only his secondary business?

When speaking of the "banker" who has fled, whom even the press in the country which has very much grown together with money calls "the biggest Yugoslav banker", many think that his spectacular move has nothing to do with the arrest of the ministers or with the political background of the latest moves by the head of the Serbian state. The "Boss's" possible contribution to political outcomes are brought in connection with Montenegro, that is, the conspicuous badmouthing of the Montenegrin president Momir Bulatovic and prime minister Milo Djukanovic. In fact, Boss Jezda has committed criminal offenses against Bulatovic and Djukanovic, so that his return to Belgrade and the court's silence would be sure signs that he had helped the Serbian leadership to pacify the mischievous Montenegrins. Nevertheless, there are much more of those who consider that the main reason for the "banker's" flight is that he had nothing more to find in Yugoslavia. It is also the nervous moves by the another bank owner Mrs. Dafina Milanovic that point to such a conclusion: first of all she spat on her colleague for having gone abroad, raised high her Serbian orientation and also the interest rates on hard currency deposits (15 percent per month), and then on Thursday it was announced that, as of Monday, "Dafiment bank" would give interest rates that are a few percentage points higher than is usual in the world (which means, some ten percent annually). The accompanying statement was fantastic: people lived enough off of machinations, they should return to production!!! Of course, Dafina Milanovic knows what she's doing. Even earlier on she would raise interests when the inflow necessary for paying the non-payable obligations dropped. Or she lowered interests for the same reason, but then there would come a marketing message saying that until the date of the change she would accept deposits at old, that is, higher interests. Now there is no such offer, or any other explanation except that it has been made clear to Mrs.Dafina that she can no longer count on credits from the central bank money and other para-state faucets from which she would collect marks off the street. In short, that the state no longer needs her services.

It remains to be seen whether the state will accept or turn down similar services of the Serbian Radical Party. Namely, one of its prominent representatives has praised on television the state's resoluteness to combat crime and immediately brought out papers "proving" that former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic was a criminal, as were many around him, as the Radical Party had been claiming for a long time.

All in all, those with experience warn that, perhaps, it is those who have lately been the loudest in welcoming "the fight against crime and corruption" that are afraid the most of the further course of developments. Or, according to another version, the clearing of the terrain in Serbia suits them fine since they have finished cleaning outside the borders. However, even those "foreign" business deals are not certain forever - this can primarily be concluded from the unheard-of police inspections on Belgrade streets, primarily of more expensive cars and the accompanying papers.