God And Gavrilo

A year has passed since it all started in Bosnia. War usually creates retro-illusions of inevitability, and finds many strong justifications. As if history had piled up so many contradictions and then mixed them all together, making any other outcome impossible. But, many of these reasons are the product of war, and are created while it lasts. That is how the idea of the impossibility of a life together in Bosnia, first started the war and then later proved itself through the war. It is possible to prove anything this way, let alone that the man whose house I have torched will hate me.

In the beginning there were decisions which could be made and could not be. There were goals of which some implied war, and some did not. Now, one year later, it would be interesting to know what all those who started all this, really think. Did they know how things would turn out? Would they do it all again? In the same way? I'm afraid that the answer would be yes. At least on the Serbian and Croatian sides. It is important to know this answer, not because of history, but because of what still awaits us. We are dealing with people who believe in their great historical goals and missions, or at least they seem to do so, or perhaps they don't have any choice anymore?

It was a year of defeats and break downs, one in which we lost many illusions about ourselves, the world, civilization and the end of the 20th century. The decades-long nurtured illusion of Europe as the place where eternal bliss and harmony rule, has been destroyed by the terrible agony of Sarajevo which none wished, or knew how to prevent. The West is protecting itself in a reflex action, and many are proving, not without cynicism and arrogance, that this here is not Europe, and never was. But, among Sarajevo's murderers there are people who have been educated in the West. They speak foreign languages, watch American movies, eat and dress as anywhere else in the world. They do not differ from European standards, even if they are not part of the top European elite. Those who belong to this exalted circle can be found in Sarajevo, Belgrade and Zagreb. Their numbers are proportional to those of Western capitals, but they were not able to influence developments here.

I do not wish to say that Europe could find itself facing a Bosnian-type catastrophe one day, but this is a European war, and the arrogance of those who choose to ignore this fact, could easily become contagious. The dream of European unification is based on a readiness to accept and respect differences, and this stand is incompatible with contempt for a neighboring country, and viewing it as barbarian. Bosnia inevitably influences Europe's view of itself and contributes to the general growth of arrogance, intolerance, a differentiating between better and worse Europeans, the civilized and the barbarians.

The neglect of Bosnia, the incapability to save Sarajevo are already taking their revenge on Europe, but that does not concern us who are closer to Sarajevo. Karadzic's and Mladic's army have made Sarajevo the greatest Serbian disgrace. With Milosevic, whom Serbia re-elected after everything, the signature of the whole nation has been put on these ruins, regardless of what some may think of Milosevic's victory and collective guilt. I believe that they all feel they have gone too far, and what is worse, are now alone. That is why their hope in Russia's help, is not linked to the blocking of Western threats and possible intervention, inasmuch as to provoking a conflict of enormous proportions.

With regard to the UN Security Council's decision on the enforcement of the no-fly zone over Bosnia, Karadzic said that it could be the start of a third world war. If it were estimated that something like this were possible, Karadzic would again easily reject Vance-Owen's plan, because that would be his only way of becoming Gavrilo Princip (the man who triggered off World War II). I have no other explanation for his statement, nor can I imagine anyone who would not agree to some kind of peace paper if a third world war depended on it. Karadzic dreams from Bileca of starting the mechanism of a global cataclysm. He behaves like one of those crazy terrorists in James Bond films: holding the world hostage with his little finger on the nuclear button. For someone who has destroyed Sarajevo, a third world war is no big thing: just a little more of the same.

In principle, Milosevic is in a similar position, but I am nursing a secret hope that he would be capable of changing his mind at the last moment, and of withdrawing. He has always looked to ensure some kind of an alibi for himself and remove the traces. He has worked behind the scenes, shunned the lime light, and it seems that he never wanted to be in the same boat with Karadzic. They have certainly spent hundreds of hours talking, but I don't recall that anyone has ever seen them together on television. I can't even remember joint photographs, or reports that the Serbian President had met with the President of the Serbian Republic in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Officially, they do not know each other.

In this way Milosevic has left himself the possibility of being shocked by the destruction of war, and of appealing for peace which he holds dear. This is not only a manoeuvre aimed at convincing the world that Karadzic is independent, and at avoiding the punishment of Serbia, but also a precautionary measure in case the venture proves a spectacular failure. Even if nobody believes him, Milosevic knows the importance of not giving formal proof of involvement. This is why he so persistently denies having any influence over Karadzic, just as, during the war in Croatia, he insisted that Serbia was not formally at war. This is the behavior of a man who knows that he is involved in something that is not allowed.

The strategists of the Bosnian war, at least those sitting in Belgrade, knew they would have problems with the world press. They knew that the world would take notice of the systematic killing of Sarajevo, even though some of them still complain that they have lost the media war. It is true that the facts and media truth do not always coincide. It is true that there is a great deal of cynicism and indifference in the world, but it is impossible to achieve a military and media victory in a war for territories in present day Europe. This was a year of media defeats for Serbia. Somebody here did not understand that the media have become more powerful than arms, and that such a defeat is more dangerous than one in war, and that it can annul the results of victories in war. That is why Cosic's theory of Serbs as losers in peacetime will be proved correct in its contradiction. They were never this, but Cosic wants to be proved right.

The Assembly in Bileca is in session, and I don't think I am missing much if I don't know how it will end. Karadzic will have a big problem if he rejects the map and agrees to peace, because Yeltsin's envoy has come to Bileca, and he has probably hinted that a third world war is not in the offing. I can hear Karadzic speaking of the fulfillment of God's justice, and how God is on the Serbian side. But, as God is not momentarily in Bileca, I think that the Assembly will try to put off, for just a little longer, the admission of earthly injustice.

This torture can go on for some time, but the real end of the war will arrive when this entire generation has passed away. Recently in Berlin I heard a story about a German whom they call "Doktor-Doktor" because he holds two Heidelberg doctorates, but works as a valet. Not because of the economic crisis or unemployment, but because he has lost his mind. He was a member of the German Army unit which shot the pupils in Kragujevac in 1941. Since then he has always talked of the great battle near Kragujevac, one of the greatest in the war, and is surprised that no one has ever heard of it. We are going to have thousands of such madmen here. Men who will not be able to live with their conscience and what they did in the war. If God gets involved in our affairs, then his finger will be felt when he starts taking away sanity.

Milosevic, however, will not have great difficulties in surviving the end of the war in Bosnia. A good part of the opposition are repeating the same mistakes and believe that his weakness will show when he accepts peace and abandons his maximum goals, and that this moment can be taken advantage of. If this should prove the case, if the opposition turns out to be more militant and allegedly more consistent in representing the interests of Serbs outside Serbia, the only impression they will leave will be one of thinking how to get into power, rather than thinking of Serbia's interests. Milosevic will become invulnerable, and one never knows what he will think of next. It is hard to believe that after all this he will sit in peace. Perhaps we will look back on this Bosnian year with nostalgia.