Parliamentary, Extra-Parliamentary...

Unlike Yeltsin, Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic has still some time to go before surviving the "impeachment" by the Parliament, which does not particularly like him. The Montenegrin MP's, who shudder at Cosic's intentions to change the Constitution, so the Federation is strengthened, prevented revoking of the (unconstitutional law), which leaves the President's replacement to the sheer will of the majority. Believing that the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court should be regulated by the Constitution, they announced an initiative to change it. They did not nave enough signatures for such an initiative, nor did they, as it turned out, ask the Democrats of the members of the Democratic Movement of Serbia (DEPOS) whether they would join them (which they would).

The Radicals (SRS) and the Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) did not get the two-third majority. Therefore, there is no knowing why they tried so hard. The Democrats carried out a maneuver by proposing an amendment, which would make the earlier initiative of the Radicals illegal. The leader of the Serbian Radical Party, Vojislav Seselj, agreed to it expecting that this would win the Democrats to vote for the law, but it didn't. Yet, this could not have been crucial.

The fact that the members of the Democratic Movement of Serbia quietly returned to the Parliament after a two month long abstention was the news. Naturally, old parliamentary quarrels could be heard right away: Seselj said from the speaker's platform that Mihajlo Markovic of the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) was a "psychiatric case," while the latter replied in a similar fashion.

The following day showed that the Serbian Renewal Movement (on the horns of the Hamlet-like dilemma) returned to the Parliament to save Cosic, with whom they are disappointed, without consulting their main coalition partner within the Democratic Movement of Serbia - the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), which had separated from the Democratic Party (DS) last summer only to join the very same Movement. Then, a controversial meeting of the incomplete DEPOS parliamentary group in the Serbian Parliament followed. The leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia, Vojislav Kostunica, said afterwards that the times when DEPOS could figure as a movement was over, adding that, as the things are right now, it could exist as a coalition or perhaps only as an electoral list. The final decision on DEPOS' return to the Parliament was put off until the Constitutional Court of Serbia passes a verdict on whether the Serbian Constitution was violated by the adoption of the law on electing the members to the Federal Parliament's Chamber of Republics, while the issue is regarded as a matter of consistency.

After at least five to six major defeats the Opposition has suffered over the last five years (the elections lost two times in 1990 and 1992; March 9 and the "velvet revolution," the petition with several hundred signatures for the resignation of the Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic 1992, the St. Vitus' Day Revolt , spring 1992, the outcry of the "third Serbia" at the University; summer 1992), the latest indecisions point to a toilsome dilemma of the feeble opposition. One opposition MP has said that due to the overall depression the opposition is best off doing nothing - it should remain on the scene and wait. Yet, such fatalism is risky in the galloping catastrophe. It can already be seen that the story might end so sadly, that there would be no other page left to turn. There would be no point in, say, the reformists starting to boast about having been in the right when they had accurately assessed that the nationalism would ultimately lead to the tragedy. The former Yugoslavia is no more, and that can't be mended in the foreseeable future.

Over the last three months the opposition parties have not shown that they can or want to do something through extra-parliamentary means. There are no signs either that any party has tacitly gained in terms of its organization, developed its network or enlarged its membership. All parties have remained hopelessly divided, suffering from the same syndrome - a total loss of initiative. The idea of civic resistance has remained an empty story. Just like an old house, a party falls into pieces rapidly if it is not used. The social revolt, which is being awaited like sour grapes, could be headed by a man, now sitting in the Parliament.

By taking it a step at a time, the Radicals have, meanwhile, tried to annul all fruits of the year long labor of the democratic opposition, practically eliminating it from the scene as a "pro-Western" force. They have begun installing their own people at the University, which had rebelled. They have frightened those whom they considered a "destabilizing factor" on television. By taking the advantage of the opposition's electoral knock-down, they set up a managerial dictatorship in numerous institutions, ranging from the National Theater to the Museum of Modern Art (it would not be a bad idea to make an inventory of the Museum's collection on time; the works of art, as history has taught us, tend to disappear most often in the times when flour is in short supply while excuses abound).

They even have a possible social revolt under control, by directing it, as the last week's general strike has shown, at the red-hot Mint or by spreading deception of demagogic equality in privation. It does not look it that they will give up centralizing anything and everything speedily. The outcome could have been expected - the robbery involving the ministers.

The Socialists have not come up with the affair only to divert the attention, or, as some analysts claim, to find a scape-goat fro the economic collapse. They have come to grips with crime since it has become much too obvious and perhaps posed a threat to the police itself. Now that the disgrace is out they will for some time at least be very careful not to allow any political consequences to come of it. The question of objective responsibility of the former Prime Ministers Bozovic and Zelenovic is being raised by the unpopular opposition only. Still, it was Bozovic, before whom the newly elected judges of the Federal Court took a pledge several days ago.

The Radicals are deftly using the fight against crime for their own political promotion while demagogically pressing the Socialists to continue the fight for the rule of law. Their MP from Kragujevac, Tomislav Nikolic has made several statements, where he demanded that he ruling party continue to persecute the criminals and threatened that the Serbian Radical Party will take it upon itself should the state falter.

The fact that the schemes, which are southward bound, are thwarted, rather than those leading to Bosnia and Krajinas, indicates that the police, which obviously has considerable power, will at least for some time try to expose the deals conducted with the knowledge of the somebody who could be envisioned on the pyramid's top. The political center feels that the fight against crime may be an overture to a dictatorship, to banning of the freedom of speech and to imposition of press censorship, which is done when the investigation has gone too far.

The democratic opposition has thus far invested most of its energy in the fight for the freedom of speech and against TV Bastille (as TV Serbia often referred to by the opposition). If the opposition only remembered its old requests it could even do something, which could, on the other hand, be a harder nut to crack than the "conducted" strikes are. The outcome is never certain. For example, the Croats have failed in defending the minimum freedom of press in Split.

After the Radicals had refused the proposal to set up an Inquiry Committee which would be likely to politically steer the investigation towards the top, the democratic opposition met the campaign with passive skepticism, which can hardly pay a political bonus. On such guard, the opposition deprived itself of a demagogic weapon (the fight for justice and safety) which might prove rather efficient in a crisis. It actually allowed Milosevic to score yet another significant point. The secret of the failure of Milosevic's opponents seems to be contained in a syntagm, "parliamentary, extra-parliamentary ..." which only portrays his will for power and their Hamlet-like nature.

Milosevic has tried to make it known that he is pulling out of the war faster than Cosic, who finds it necessary that Europe should open up its eyes before the Eastern question and the recomposition in the Balkans. He has undertaken what appears to be a successful mediating action between the Bosnian Serb Commander, General Ratko Mladic, and the UNPROFOR Commander in Bosnia, French General Philippe Morillon, but there are no signs that he is distancing himself from the war lobbyists at home, those directly involved in war crimes. The question remains whether he will bite a poisonous apple, especially if the new war-like atmosphere is created here after the Security Council resolution on enforcing a no-fly zone over Bosnia. In the rural areas the radicals are busy hunting down the draft dodgers from Krajinas, insisting that hospitality be denied to the men, who are of age, and that they be sent to the front, which Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic's Serb Republic in Bosnia has requested from the Serbian Government.

The high officer corps has obviously elected Milosevic once again as the one who can defend the system, secure high budget and prevent the debate on involvement in the war and on mistakes committed while it was waged. The military demands for money are significant, which the Federal Prime Minister Radoje Kontic (one analysis calls him a "light weight politician") has grasped and proposed a state budget which is actually a military one. This set is with hopes analyzing the patronizing speech Milosevic made in Batajnica. If the assessments have it that Yeltsin in Moscow will not stay in power (which is less likely this week than it was last week), this set could sooner of later more directly aim at quelling the freedom, which is always done in face of threatening hunger and unrest.

In a situation when many wish for the state of emergency, the return of MP's to the Parliament might raise some hope that the democratic forces in Belgrade could stay alive, even though they may be having the lowest standing ever since the law on political parties was adopted in the distant 1990.