Who Flies Over Bosnia

"Mirage," "Harrier," F-14, F-16 and "Tornado" fighter planes, supported by the AWACS surveillance planes, will soon be patrolling the air space over the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina. This means that the Security Council resolution, adopted last Thursday, will be sanctioned with the latest armaments of the NATO alliance. The resolution is clearly worded: the flights over Bosnia-Herzegovina can be carried out only if given permission by UNPROFOR, the violators will be warned, and then shot down; the aircraft enforcing the ban will be authorized to use force in defense against the attacks coming from the ground and from the air. A lesser concession has secured the Russian approval: the aircraft will not attack the ground targets (air-fields) while pursuing the violators.

A representative of the Russian Government has stated placidly that such a measure had been "necessary," which baffled the Bosnian Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic.

The first Security Council resolution, which was adopted last fall and laid out a principle, was more of a warning. It has so far been violated several hundred times, but the large majority of violations were non-combat flights: small planes (An-2) were used by the Croats for supplying Cazinska Krajina, where Fikret Abdic, a member of the B-H Presidency, is minding his business and running his own state; the Serbs used helicopters to supply their positions and transport the wounded, although there were reports at first of combat flights by the Banja Luka Air Force.

The imposition of a no-fly zone had been primarily taken as an academic issue: the Banja Luka Air Force was soon to hit the minimum of technical resources due to a lack of spare parts (the similar problem befell the Yugoslav Air Force due to sanctions and the destruction of the Mostar's "Sokol" plane). The flight ban gained in significance for a short while during the Croatian offensive on the Zadar battlefield, only to sink in oblivion soon afterwards.

Two weeks ago, however, an abrupt change, which gives cause for concern, took place: the United Nations personnel in Eastern Bosnia reported three combat flights of the propeller driven planes. The airplanes reportedly came from Western Serbia, bombed some settlements and flew back. The Yugoslav Army Headquarters claimed and still is that it has no knowledge of it (one officer mumbled out reluctantly in private something about "being tripped over, once again"). According to some information, these were P-2 "Kraguj" planes (propeller driven attackers, which are no longer in use in the Yugoslav Air Force; there had been about seventy such planes in the fleet, which were later put under the charge of the Territorial Defense) and at least one An-2 (a large single engined by-plane for general purposes, which was mostly used for agricultural needs). A certain air-club from Western Serbia and some patriotically inclined amateur pilots were mentioned on the occasion; the adapted 120 mm caliber mortar mines were also talked about, but the larger airplane bombs were not. Those who do not tend to forget quickly could recall that one "Cessna" plane was stolen from the Belgrade Airport several months ago. The rumour had it that it could be spotted around Bosnia. The Bosnian side complained of 5 people being killed and another 15 wounded in those attacks.

What has actually happened? The air support was avoided even when the position of the Serb side in Eastern Bosnia was much more difficult (fighting over the point of Jezero, for example). Why is it being used now when their offensive is successful? The Serb side in Bosnia even accused UNPROFOR of being responsible for the attacks, while it could be heard at the Headquarters that everything was being done by the Croats. The issue of the planes' effective range and operation radius aside, it is obvious that someone's air force is running wild, operating around. Such a "Mickey Mouse Air Force" is commonly put to use in special operations and unconventional warfare. It was named in Laos, when CIA provided similar support to its secret operations in the region in the early 1960's.

Yet, the political setting, where all this is taking place, seems to be more interesting: the better way, than the air strikes are, could not have been found in order to make the Security Council pass such a resolution. Did anyone need it? Who may benefit from it? Karadzic was forced against the wall, after having been driven into a corner by signing the Vance-Owen plan in Geneva - for the love of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic. Then the UN Commander in Bosnia, Philippe Morillon placed him before an accomplished fact: the whole world could see Srebrenica and the evacuation of refugees. The UN helicopters were shot at and the Tuzla Airport was attacked. B-H President Alija Izetbegovic then signed the Vance-Owen plan, leaving Karadzic all alone in the clearing. This position is extremely dangerous: whether he signs or not, he'll repent it either way. The only option left to him is to stall and put his hopes in the passage of time. The resolution can hardly be used as an excuse: those who do not fly, won't be shot down. But, if those who do fly, get shot down, a possibility for further deterioration will be created.

We can only watch the Bosnian sky intently: if the provocations occur and if the aircraft, serving the United Nations respond, many things will become clearer.