Life Under Sanctions In Figures

A plunge of the industrial production began as early as in 1990, with a 12 per cent minus. It was further reduced the following year by 18 per cent, which the plummeting of activity accelerated last year at the reduction rate of 23 per cent. The production was cut down by 40 per cent in the first months of this year, compared to the last year's average. The experts assess that the production level in the most production branches is about the same level marked in the early sixties, while the sanctions would push us further back to the past. It is estimated that out of all employed---about 2 million---almost 700,000 are on forced vacations, 500,000 people work in the production (the others are in involved in "superstructure"---a Marxist phrase for non-production branches: education, healtcare, etc...).

Even without a physical blockade of borders, supplying of the industry which depends on imports would be very difficult in the months to come. It has been announced in the Yugoslav Parliament that only 286 million dollars are effectively at a disposal out of the alleged total of 1.3 billion dollar hard currency state reserves. It seems that the money, which was not under control of the Central Bank, was hastily spent in March ahead of the Federal Government measures. Namely, the import of goods in March amounted to 460 million dollars, which is four times more than the average, recorded in the recent months. The question is how much hard currency has remained on the accounts of the banks and join ventures, if it true that the trading deficit reached 587 million dollars in the first three months of this year (after the last year's trading deficit of 1,320 million dollars).

A smaller part of the March imports has been used for stocking up reproduction material and energy reserves, while a bigger part was used for consumer goods, since greater profits can be made on them. Last year already the foreign trade showed the signs of dying down; the exports dropped by almost 50 per cent, and the imports followed by 30 per cent.

The food and energy balances are crucial in case the Yugoslav economy is "hermetically" closed. The government has, naturally, avoided announcing the minimum amounts needed, so that we can only present the evaluations of food and energy consumption derived from the indicators of the "normal" years. Therefore, it is estimated that Yugoslavia annually consumes 1.6 million tons of wheat in normal circumstances. According to the Federal sources, 2.1 million tons were produced last year; it is claimed that over 800,000 hectares were sown with wheat last autumn. The only problem is that only 17,000 tons of costly artificial fertilizer were stored last winter, while the estimated 500,000 tons of fertilizer (on the whole) for the spring works are yet to be obtained.

4.6 million tons of corn were produced last year, while 5.8 tones are expected this year. These figures, in both cases, exceed the normal annual consumption, and especially the reduced needs caused by a rapid fall in the cattle breeding. 480,000 tons of all kinds of meat were produced last year, which is ten per cent less than the previous year. The breakdown in meat exports and the reduced buying power inside destimulate the cattle breeding. Even last year, in comparison to 1965, we had 14 per cent fewer heads of cattle and 41 per cent fewer sheep. A number of sheep was increased by only 9.6 per cent over almost 20 years.

In normal circumstances (when the food industry works in full force) Yugoslavia annually consumes 400,000 tons of white sugar. 300,000 tons were produced last year. The annual need for vegetable oil is assessed at about 170,000 tons, while 200,000 tons were produced last year.

In case, an absolute blockade is imposed, the Government will have a number of problems in preventing hunger, in spite of theoretic self-sufficiency in food. Farmers have an unpleasant experience with a forced purchase of their crops, and the purchase for dinars, which the inflation made worthless.

The cultivation of almost 5 million hectares of arable land is also a problem, since there is no fuel for some 300,000 hectares. Normal yields cannot be expected due to the lack and high prices of artificial fertilizers.

The difficulties are greater in drawing up the energetic balance sheets of potentials and needs, than in food balances. Here we have to rely on the estimates as well, since the energetic balance sheet for Yugoslavia not made for the year of 1993 for the first time after many years.

It is assessed that some 4 million tons of oil derivates were spent last year, out of which only 1.2 million tons were produced from the domestic oil (the production of 1.3 million tons of crude oil). The consumption of 5.8 million tons of derivates was planned for the last year.

2.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas were spent last year, while 0.8 billion was derived from the domestic sources.

It is well known that Serbia has a surplus capacities for the electric power production. 37 billion kW/h of electrical power were produced last year, out of which 5.3 billion kW/h were exported.

Big losses of the electric power industry, the lack of spare parts and big oscillations in consumption are a problem, since the two thirds of the electric power already go towards the heating of households.

39.5 million tons of coil were produced last year, the two thirds of which were low-caloric lignite. There is as much wood as is cut. In other words, for several years.