At Least One Friend Should Be Found

The United Nations sanctions which were imposed against Yugoslavia at the end of May 1992, and which were recently toughened because of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's role in Bosnia-Herzegovina, will probably be lifted one day. Experts in international law explain how this can be done. No one dares to forecast - when. Professor Obrad Racic, an expert at international organizations said shortly for VREME that the lifting of the sanctions will depend on the political will at the United Nations. This is also the opinion of Ljubivoje Acimovic who adds that chapter seven of the UN Charter, regulating the imposition of sanctions, does not include a defined procedure for lifting them. Every case is a case for itself - and ours is beyond all of them. Yugoslavia's possible confrontation with its brothers in Bosnia-Herzegovina will not have a great impact on the UN's stand regarding the sanctions - it will request concrete actions, considers Acimovic.

"Procedurally speaking, it is just as difficult to introduce sanctions as it is to lift them", said prof. Vojin Dimitrijevic, an expert at international law. It is necessary to get a majority of nine Security Council members and to see to it that none of the permanent members - the big powers - vote against. In our situation and our solitude it was enough to find one permanent member country to veto the imposition of sanctions - but we didn't find it. Now, however, it is enough for one permanent member to vote against the lifting of the sanctions and they will not be lifted, and that one member country would be easy to find. Prof.Dimitrijevic's conclusion is: "The Security Council can gain the impression that Yugoslavia no longer endangers peace and to lift the sanctions. In order for this to happen, Yugoslavia should show the Security Council and the world at large, that it has wiped off its war colors and buried its war hatchet." In concrete terms, this would require diplomatic skill of which there has been no trace since the outbreak of this war. It would be necessary to find at least one country that would want to do something for us. This is not impossible, since the international community, that is the UN, or better the say the Security Council - despite the domestic propaganda - is not a monolithic body of a central committee type in which there are no different opinions and no rivalry.

According to certain views, if official Serbia hadn't insulted Boris Yeltzin, it is possible that he would have invested a little more effort in our case. Now the search for a political friend is left up to the uncertain future. Konstantin Obradovic, an expert at international law, gives the following explanation: "The signing of the Vance-Owen plan is not the only problem. The Security Council must be convinced that Yugoslavia has stopped supporting Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic. An even simpler way to lift the sanctions would be - peace. If Karadzic were to withdraw his troops a few kilometers, if he surrendered his cannons to UNPROFOR, if the bombing of Sarajevo stopped..." The procedure for lifting sanctions, according to Mr.Obradovic, is no special problem. The Security Council will, at the proposal of one or more countries, adopt a resolution partly or fully lifting the sanctions. If Karadzic had signed the Vance-Owen plan, for the beginning, the ban on cultural, scientific and sports cooperation would, probably, have been lifted. That would be a kind of initial sign of good will, but now this too will have to be waited for. There is yet another question which is causing many dilemmas among the public.

Even if the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina stopped, isn't it probable that the lifting of the sanctions would be made conditional on the change of the policy in Kosovo, towards the Hungarians, the Muslims in Sandzak... Obradovic thinks that this wouldn't be possible because the sanctions were imposed exclusively because of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The international community had characterized the Yugoslav People's Army as the aggressor in Croatia as well, but sanctions were not imposed. Even in Bosnia, the war went on for almost two months, during which a cessation of attacks kept being requested, before the UN decided to impose sanctions. If the wish is to punish Yugoslavia because of its policy in Kosovo, theoretically speaking a new resolution would have to be adopted, but the Security Council is not authorized to impose sanctions because of the violation of human rights, but rather only when peace is endangered. The other interviewees do not dispute that, legally speaking, this is how things stand, but they point out that it is political criteria that will be crucial for the sanctions to be lifted. They consider that, with a certain delay, the Kosovo issue will certainly keep being brought up, as will the problem of uniting the Serbian states - two of which are new UN members. However, as we have said, all this will be placed on the agenda only when the situation in Bosnia calms down.