A Letter from the Darkness

There are no more trucks at Cukarka. According to the reporter at this border crossing at the Yugoslav-Macedonian border, the transport of goods has ground to a halt, but it is comforting that buses from the south can enter Yugoslavia without any problems. Customs officers from America and Europe will probably rarely come to control Cukarka, but it is already clear to everyone that the Yugoslav economy cannot function on the basis of the "franco Cukarka" regime. In fact, this wasn't possible even up to now - although a lot of necessary imported goods with papers on the names of importers from Macedonia, Bosnia and Croatia entered the country. When, for instance, the enormous rotational furnace of the cement works in Beocin got "rusty" last summer (because the entire shift played cards), it was repaired immediately because old Macedonian friends helped get the equipment from France. When someone says that the "Zastava" factory of Kragujevac has "mastered" the production of as many as 700 out of 1200 imported parts, one must know that a bridge is not finished even when it is constructed almost to the other side and that it still cannot be crossed. Is it necessary to recall that, last year, "Zastava" produced only 24 000 cars compared to 100 000 in the previous year and to the projected capacity of around 250,000 vehicles annually. Should we add to this gloomy picture the fact that 1200 trucks have been produced, while the plan was to produce ten times more. Is there any point in recalling that "Zastava's" main partner, DMB of Rakovica, has produced only 10 percent of the planned engines and that, because of the embargo, it has lost a practically concluded contract with Lombardini for the production of 100 000 compact engines a year. And what's the use of DMB having "mastered" the production of engines when it has no one to sell them to.

The situation is no better with plastics. For instance, in a technological surge, "Zastava" announced that it would resolve the problem of the plastic dashboard in its automobiles. Unfortunately, the petrochemical factory in Pancevo stopped working already last June. And with it go all other processing factories, from those producing plastics to caoutchouc and vinegar. Is it necessary to recall that over 5 billion dollars were invested in this field alone over the past decades. The new blow of sanctions is destroying what was painstakingly "pieced together" over the mentioned "year and a half" under the blockade.

The Electronic Industry of Nis was practically at a standstill for a long time. Now, somehow, as many as 9300 out of the 16 500 employees are at work (until recently, 9000 of them were on forced vacation, while now it is 7500 of them).

Now everything has been brought into question again. In order to calm down its viewers, the television has most often visited certain textile factories to show that some work is being done after all. And figures show that in the sector of cotton, only around 15 percent of the capacities are used, in knitwear around 20 percent and in the garment sector around 40 percent. It is difficult to say whether a greater problem here is the fact that there are no imported materials or that this branch cannot survive if it doesn't export 60 percent of its production. Without exports, around 200,000 people in the leather and textile sector have no future.

As soon as the New York sanctions were "confirmed" in Bijeljina, agriculture started becoming the focus of attention, although food is not under the strictest regime of sanctions (even luxurious food, although it is not imported in enormous quantities). It is already known that, as regards the covered areas, the sowing of wheat was successful last autumn and that over 850 000 hectares were sowed and around 3 million tons of crops are to be expected (which is almost two times more than the annual consumption). Nevertheless, it should be borne in mind that at least 30 percent of the land was sowed with ordinary seeds "from the attic". It is also disturbing that most of the agricultural pharmacies in Vojvodina villages sell very little. Even when one can find artificial fertilizers, complains an owner of an agricultural pharmacy in Gospodjinci, farmers don't even think of buying it. They don't even agree to some form of "delayed barter", to pay for the things they buy today when they get money for their crops. Last year's move by then Serbian Prime Minister Radoman Bozovic, to impose a monopoly on the purchase of wheat in favour of the Republican commodity reserves, warned farmers, already then, not to sell their wheat. This year, the state will have even more problems to place the "balance of food" under its control. Perhaps there is truth in the claims of a member of the republican parliament, that it is not Kisgeci (Minister Of Agriculture) who will be dealing with the purchase of wheat, but rather Sokolovic, the Minister of police. According to Serbian Prime Minister Sainovic, despite all kinds of shortages, the spring sowing is not proceeding badly ("everyone can see that on television", he says). It is officially estimated that, by mid April, 500 000 out of around 2.5 million hectares will be sowed. The government has announced that it has ensured 59 000 tons of artificial fertilizers, which is around 15 percent of the normal needs. The ministry of agriculture itself is dissatisfied with the assessment that only 60 percent of the necessary quantities of diesel reach the farmers. Since all the necessary fuel can obviously not be obtained from domestic resources, while, at the same time, maintaining as normal internal traffic as possible, crazy ideas about agriculture returning to horse traction can also be heard. A veteran of agrarian journalism, Milosav Ilijin, reminds all the advocates of "animal traction" that we have only 51 000 mares for foaling, that they carry their offspring for 11 months and that the upbringing of a harness horse lasts three years. The 94000 Yugoslav horses can do little in a short period of time. True, if cows are also included in the job, somewhat better results could be expected. It would, of course, be better to ensure somehow around 50 000 tons of diesel a month in order for tractors to do the job.