The Friends of Bosnia Club

Bosnia is the right kind of a job for a magician, one of those who saw women in half. One who would be able to saw her into three parts, so that each got the bigger part, but left her alive and well at the end. Vance-Owen's plan strove to achieve exactly that, but unfortunately the two of them don't know this particular trick. It cannot be said that they didn't try, nor that the world watched scenes of the Apocalypse indifferently. But, on occasions such as these, people always hear a small devil telling them that such things only happen to others, and that it is a good thing - because others' misfortunes make us appreciate the fact that we have electricity and water and that we do not have to run when crossing a street. Without helping those in need we could not be magnanimous and earn a place in heaven.

Judging by what has been done in Bosnia so far, the greater part of the world here will burn in hell. The only result is a plan which offers good advice. If anyone here had wanted plans, they would have drawn them up themselves. That is how Vance and Owen found themselves in the roles of priests who have stumbled across a mass orgy and are trying to stop it with prayers. That is why they are calling on the whole world to join them.

Threats of an intervention have turned out to be a bluff, so that one should not be surprised when General Mladic threatens to bomb London. And where Mladic is concerned, the inhabitants of Sarajevo are apt to believe him. Bosnian Serbs said that they didn't like the plan, and Bosnian Croats immediately followed suit. Local tamers have so tamed the world powers that they are now practically begging them to accept a bit of the Vance-Owen plan, and Devil take the rest.

It turns out that Milosevic and Cosic, the main authors of the war, like the Vance-Owen plan best of all. They did not vacillate even after the danger of a direct military threat had been averted, which means that they have stronger reasons for abandoning the idea of a state of all Serbs. They have held on to the very end, exposed Serbs to sanctions and have suddenly lost all appetite for territories which they had wanted so badly. The secret lies in the fact that the situation outgrew them, and they realized that a Greater Serbia threatened to swallow up the small Serbia along with them.

As a man who understands the mechanisms of power, Milosevic realized that he was losing control over Karadzic and Mladic, and that the war was dictating his moves, rather than the other way round. The influence of the Bosnian lobby has increased in Belgrade, especially among officers, and Vojislav Seselj, the real leader of the Bosnian Serbs has already started criticizing Milosevic. Dobrica Cosic on the other hand, might have been shocked by what he saw on the other side of the Drina River. Namely, everything brought back to mind the Chetnik movement as he remembered it. He might also have noticed that at Pale no one was pretending anymore to respect his authority, while in Belgrade, Seselj was calling for his head.

Even if Vance and Owen were to renounce their plan, Milosevic and Cosic would not. They do not need a Greater Serbia any longer, or some other Serbian state in Bosnia, all the more so as Bosnian Serbs are calling for the return of the monarchy. In that case, how would Milosevic be able to prevent the return of the monarchy in Serbia? Milosevic has distanced himself from the Partisan-Communist legacy as much as he could, but even he would not be able to survive the return of the King.

Serbian-Serb relations have become incredibly complex. The matter does not pertain only to authority, to Milosevic, Seselj and the King. As soon as a theoretical possibility for unification were to emerge, the fierce rivalry between the Serbs on either side of the Drina River would become evident. Without doubt, the wish to dominate would explode in a joint state. Those who dreamed of a Greater Serbia from Belgrade have greatly overestimated the homogeneity of the Serbian people, believing that territories can easily be annexed just because Serbs live in them. The problem which would arise would be as great if another people were concerned.

Monarchists believe that the Crown could surpass everything, reconcile and bring together all, just as Seselj hopes that he could be the man who would bring this about, considering the support he enjoys on both sides. However, Milosevic is not the only obstacle, but Bosnian Serbs themselves. By warring against those who are closest to them, they have forgotten God, so that a King would not impress them greatly. When it proves that Seselj cannot enforce himself on Serbia, he will become useless to those in Bosnia, so that he could end up in the middle of the Drina River.

Milosevic has found himself in an unusual position. International threats have ceased suddenly, precisely when he needs them most. If America were to declare the Vance-Owen plan dead tomorrow, he wouldn't know what to do. But since the matter does not concern his skin only, it must be hoped that the world will not give up on Bosnia, but will continue to exert pressure on Karadzic and Mladic. Because if they let them, the two might wish to shake up treacherous and cowardly Belgrade.

The opposition and all those in Serbia concerned with public affairs, should forget the all-Serbian romance which is turning into a horror story, and stand up in the defence of Serbia. This is the moment for political trading, deals, concessions and measures which would lead towards stabilization in Serbia. It is necessary to think about power sharing, something that has always been difficult here, even though it has become obvious that the situation is more than flesh and blood can stand.

It seems that the Croats face a similar conflict. Zagreb, just like Belgrade has been groaning under the pressure of hardliners from Herzegovina. Even though he hasn't admitted so yet, Tudjman does not have full control over Croatian fighters who are cleansing Mostar and fighting in central Bosnia. He has probably started fearing his own idea on the division of Bosnia.

It is very likely that Zagreb cannot continue the patriotic match in which the greatest favorites are always supermen. There are claims that representatives of the two regimes, beset by the same problems, have started meeting secretly somewhere. I do not aim at proving that they are ready to found a "Friends of Bosnia Club", but it is very possible that both sides are complaining about their extremists, about Chetniks and the Ustashi who have turned renegade and do not wish to stop fighting. After pushing them into war, Belgrade and Zagreb are now wondering why the Bosnians have become so militant.

Belgrade and Zagreb could now reach an agreement over the division of Bosnia, on the understanding that there are practically no Moslems there. It is unfortunate that the whole world is watching, and that it might decide to get involved in the end and spoil the trade in territories and people. But what is even worse, it has been discovered that neither Belgraders nor Zagrebers live in Bosnia, and that after the war Bosnians would head for Belgrade and Zagreb in order to seek compensation.

It will not be a great surprise if Milosevic and Tudjman back away from such future and decide to close their borders with Bosnia. Both have striven towards homogeneous states and abhorred the idea of life with others, while those arriving from Bosnia are different, albeit with Serb and Croat names. The opposite also holds true: it won't be unusual if Boban (Mate, Bosnian Croat leader - editor's note) or someone else, thanks Tudjman, like Karadzic did, on deciding that it is better to be number one in the village rather than number two in the city. This is the basic logic followed by all great and small political leaders. It must not be forgotten that a process of destruction and partitioning is taking place in the whole of the former Yugoslavia. A Greater Serbia and a Greater Croatia are only slogans under which this process is taking place. Both Belgrade and Zagreb will have to make a great effort in order to preserve those territories which formally belong to them.