Three Losers in Search of a Winner

When they try to hide humiliation, and present defeat as a new approach, as a deeper probing into problems or a briefly postponed victory, all politicians and diplomats look equally piteous. Both in Belgrade and in Washington. In Bosnia two opposed policies and goals have been simultaneously humiliated and defeated. As soon as Belgrade had abandoned its project for the unification of all the Serb lands, the international community lost all ambition to save Bosnia. For the time being, the only victors are Karadzic and Mladic.

At the meeting of foreign ministers in Washington it was concluded that there was no cure for Bosnia. Earlier the whole world had agreed on the Vance-Owen plan which would have preserved a bit of Bosnia, and all had pledged to enforce the plan at all costs. Since the company in Pale disagreed, making it clear that some sort of a price had to be paid; and since the Croats in Bosnia went their way, the Vance-Owen plan was buried by Washington according to standard diplomatic procedure: with compliments to all sides and promises that it was only a temporary death.

At the beginning, an international intervention had seemed relatively simple and bloodless, but became more expensive and risk-ridden with each passing day, until it finally became pointless and practically impossible. World leaders shouldered the burden of public criticism at home and stood their ground in the face of scenes from hell, waiting patiently for the necessary time to pass, sharing the responsibility. That it how we ostensibly arrived at the end.

It would seem that nonsense has become a permanent characteristic of international politics, without which nothing is planned or concluded any longer. That is why "five or six" security zones in Bosnia are foreseen now, where open season on Moslems will reign, on condition that they are not too expensive to maintain. An international court for looking into war crimes has been formed, but it will not condemn anyone in absentia, which means that the same will hold true for those present when being tried. Monitors will be stationed along the Bosnian-Serbian border - if they are allowed, which they will not be. Until the Bosnian Serbs withdraw from captured territories, Serbia and Montenegro will remain under sanctions, which means forever. Croatia will be punished if it doesn't do better.

None of this will lead to peace in Bosnia, nor will it bring stabilization and democracy to Serbia and Croatia. It does not lessen the risk of new wars, neither will it save the face of international organizations or the new world order. America, Russia and the United Nations have turned out to be inefficient and ridiculous, precisely at the moment when it was believed that the world could be put into order and improved a little, it was seen that nothing functioned. Basic principles have failed and the Bosnian case is starting to look like the beginning of an epidemic rather than being a solitary incident which would serve for the finding of an efficient vaccine.

The moral is that if you stick your thumb into international politics you immediately lose it, wrote Ambrose Bierce. However, the matter here does not refer to morals, but to self-preservation. Bosnia is not the only issue at stake, but the international community as such. Perhaps it is true that Bosnia is the most difficult and most complex problem on the planet. It has shown that the world is led by people who are no different from our Balkan bluffers. They are all competent in the technical sense of the word, and their TV appearances are faultless. However, their only concern is that the world won't go to the dogs before they have finished their mandates.

Bosnia has been sacrificed and the Moslems will now declare war on the world order. A sufficient number of desperados have remained and they believe that they are not making a mistake if they shoot someone or throw a bomb somewhere. Matters are developing in such a direction so that there could be many minorities in the Balkans soon, or entire nations could turn into revenge-seekers. In order that this trend might not spread and inundate Europe, punishments are being meted out to Serbs and to some extent, the Croats. The goal is to show that delinquent behavior is not profitable.

Probably no one would dare take Henry Kissinger's advice and take cynicism to the end and reward the Serbs and Croats. Because instead one defeated side, there would be three. There would be no victorious side, which promises permanent instability in the greater part of the Balkans. However, stability cannot be returned here in any way, even if the Serbs and Croats were to become the world's favorites.

We will remain in quarantine, and if we are prevented from waging war against someone else, we will have to do so among ourselves. The scene is slowly being set for this final act in Serbia. All alliances and coalitions have fallen through, no one can cooperate with someone else anymore, none can live together and it is as if all are out to get one another. Milosevic has tried to rid himself of the Bosnian Serbs, but Seselj, Kostunica (Vojislav, leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia - editor's note) and even the Church are in the way... There is confusion in the army similar to that in the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA) at the time of the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia. Political goals are being lost, it is becoming unclear where the civilian authorities are, and even more, where they will be tomorrow. Who owes loyalty to whom, and in the name of what.

By making the lifting of sanctions against Serbia conditional to the withdrawal of Bosnian Serbs, war is being encouraged in Serbia. This would become a war for Serbia's independence and sovereignty from a Greater Serbia. It seems that Milosevic has already understood this and is debating on whether to strengthen his power with a surprise attack and so neutralize his opponents, or slowly cleanse the army of non-Serbians, or put everything off and bury it, and open a new, third front. But then again, he could do it all at the same time. One thing is for sure, whatever he may decide, the Serbian Assembly will be debating on city parks at that particular time.

There have not been many good ways out for a long time, and now there are no more bloodless and non-violent ones. Bosnian Serbs and the all-Serb idea in Belgrade are not Milosevic's only problem. His problem lies with the opposition in Serbia, the Church, ethnic Albanians, Moslems, Hungarians, militarists, pacifists, a hungry people... It seems that the world has been cunning after all. If it had been necessary to punish the Serbs, the most efficient and cheapest thing was to leave them to themselves. Madness which has resulted because of others sees no reason for stopping before one's own kind, because among them there are always those who are different.

Instead of opposing the posting of international monitors along the Drina River, Cosic and Milosevic would have done better to invite them to Belgrade, because they will have much to monitor there. Instead of waging war against the mirage of the new world order, it would be wiser, while there is still time, to admit that Serbia does not know how to govern itself, let alone others. To seek the internationalization of Kosovo and of all Serbian problems, to propose international arbitrage and beg for a protectorate would make sense, as sanctions would then have to be lifted.

But, matters have taken a different course in the world too. It looks as if there will be more places seeking arbitrage and protectorates, but fewer good arbiters. Even the best and most successful countries are no longer absolutely sure that everything is fine with them and that they know where they are heading, let alone to advise wretches such as us.

The way they dealt with Bosnia, the United Nations deserve to be declared a protectorate. All those principles and charters ended up with "finders keepers" as a Montenegrin brigand said long ago when they told him to give back what he had taken. The discipline and principles of the United Nations are not for all. Our example shows that the world could easily be divided into two parts instead of striving towards a global village. Bosnia is primarily a failure of civilization to which all contributed in their way. This warning does not concern us who have rejected civilization, but those representing it.