Commotion in the Balkans

Thursday morning, the border crossing at Presevo. The Belgrade-Skoplje train has been standing for almost an hour and a half. This is the amount of time needed by border guards and customs officers to get through the overcrowded train cars. The jam is not the reason why some young men jumped off the train cars with big heavy bags and waited, underneath the car or in the nearby forest, while the customs inspection was completed. The second act was already underway in Kumanovo where well organized taxi drivers were waiting for their partners from Serbia. The scene then moved to Skoplje (capital of Macedonia) and ended at the market - full of all sorts of people and things. There, one can see people from all country's bordering with Macedonia, including all kinds of currencies and all sorts of goods - from cheese and meat, to sweaters. The epilogue takes place in the evening at the Skoplje railway station: "These Macedonians are very stingy", complains a meat "dealer" from Serbia. They are, confirm others, but "all of us made 100- 150 DM today. We come once a week, that's enough for us." They all agree that the meat business is good, while cooling off with "Skoplje beer" before the appearance of the train, when a stampede towards the doors and windows starts. This is the way things are every day.

The Macedonian-Yugoslav border is crossed daily by around 3000 travellers in both directions. Those Macedonians who are not involved in smuggling, or some other illegal business, live off a monthly salary of 250 DEM, but which will probably rise. Those not familiar with the situation can't stop wondering why the average salary in much more prosperus Serbia has dropped below 30 DM. Since independence, Macedonia has been granted two favorable credits worth nearly 150 million dollars. All help is more than welcome, but there is no doubt that the above mentioned sum did not have a crucial impact on increasing the state's hard currency reserves (now at the level of two month's worth of foreign payments), on the stability of the Macedonian currency (a free exchange rate of the denar has been introduced and exchange offices have been legalized, so that there is no difference between the official and the black market rate) and on reigning in inflation. In May prices wnet up by 3.5 percent, while experts say that the normal monthly growth is 8-10 percent (in May the rich green market reduced the general growth of prices). The prices of most goods - apart from gasoline (80 pfennigs for a liter of super) and a few other articles - are higher than in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, but their relative level is much lower when one bears in mind that an average salary in Macedonia is almost 10 times higher than that in Yugoslavia. Of course, the Macedonian economic authorities, just like those in Slovenia, still face a long and hard road before reaching a stabile national economy and the beginning of development according to standards of the developed world. Skoplje is becoming a dynamic political center. The week started off with an unexpected visit by the head of the Serbian state, and is ending with the arrival of the British foreign secretary. That is why it does not come as a surprise that by the middle of the week, Milosevic's visit had started receding into oblivion. Or more precisely, political circles and journalists no longer mention minor details, like Milosevic's request for a secret meeting with the Macedonian president somewhere in the border region. Among those familiar with the situation there is no dilemma regarding the main goal of Milosevic's: he came with assurances of good future Serbo-Macedonian relations, even in the triangle with Greece, so that no mediator is necessary. Officials in Macedonia are still silent about their meeting with Milosevic, and it is not clear whether this is due to the two sides' agreement to make a short announcement only, or because they are thinking over the offer from Belgrade. Namely, with regard to the announcement that, for the sake of stability in this part of the Balkans, NATO (or only American) troops could come to Macedonia, the Russian ambassador visited Skoplje before Milosevic did. He also believes that it would not be a good move. These two episodes are a good illustration of the new commotion in the Balkans and around it. To put it shortly and simply: domestic and foreign analysts of large and strategic political trends seem to have no doubts that Russia's influence has definitely spread across the Drina river. A free interpretation of the latest statement by US Secretary of State Warren Christopher would be as follows: America has no business in Bosnia, but it wants to prevent the clashes from spreading to Macedonia. Predrag Simic, director of the Belgrade-based Institute for international politics and economics said in an interview to the Belgrade daily Vecernje Novosti on Monday:"Yes. The Russians want to go to Bosnia, and the Americans want to come to Macedonia. Then the Russians will be in the north, and the Americans in the south of the Balkans." The latest initiative by the Security Council's five foreign ministers contains an unequivocal item on Macedonia: everyone has been warned not to touch Macedonia, the sending of international forces with the previous consent of the Macedonian authorities has been announced and it was underlined that the United States is looking for a way to contribute to this international action. In other words, the dilemma lies in whether to send NATO or American units to Macedonia.

Judging by the course of developments so far, it seems that the Russians and the Americans are not in dispute over the reorganization of the Balkans, and not just because of the fact that the Russians had played an important role in the above mentioned initiative of the five foreign ministers. However, this will be valid if the circumstances do not change and while the present ruling teams are in power. Political uncertainty is not characteristic only of Russia. It is symptomatic that while preparations for the first all-Slav gathering were underway, a national branch was first founded in Bulgaria and that its main target was pro-European oriented president Zhely Zhelev. In general, Bulgaria's place in the restructuring of the Balkans is uncertain. This is also attested to by the fact that Bulgaria's request to join NATO has not been answered for three years. On the other hand, in a short period of time, Albania has become an associate member of this military alliance of which both Greece and Turkey are members. Bulgaria has not untangled the knot concerning the Turkish part of its population (even those Turks who have left Bulgaria have kept the leases to their property), so that in this respect, Bulgaria and Greece share the same fears. Then again, unlike its neighbors, Turkey is truely expanding so that all will have to take into account its increased political ambitions in the Balkans.

Even though they are keeping to the concept of a civil democracy, the Macedonian authorities have not been obstructing national - political rallies. However, it is an important fact that, in Macedonia, there are now four ethnic Albanian parties, compared to one earlier on. This means that a political, economic and every other kind of stratification of national parties is underway. Macedonia is, according to claims, oriented towards Europe and will not abandon the stand that there is no Macedonia outside its present borders. Speaking in daily terms, it remains to be seen how the Macedonian leadership will react to Douglas Hurd's possible request for the sealing off of the economic border with Serbia. This is not just a question of the Macedonian economy's current losses, now estimated at 1.8 billion dollars, but also of the danger of a long-term severance of ties between the Serbian and the Macedonian economies. In short, Macedonia is focused on defining its international status (one of the first steps will be a request to the EC to approve an agreement on economic and political cooperation, as was done with Slovenia). Speaking of overall stabilization in Macedonia, those familiar with the domestic situation assess that the critical moments could be the possible arrival of foreign troops and the start of the implementation of the law on privatization, about to be adopted by the assembly. However, there is undivided belief that a postponement of economic, ownership and technological restructuring would only increase existing problems. It remains to be seen why Russia postponed opening an embassy in Skoplje.