The Opposition's Greatest Victory

Serbia lost its opposition during the night between Tuesday and Wednesday. The regime managed to capture Vuk Draskovic, and he is for the opposition what Milosevic is for the regime. Compared to March 9, it wasn't the students who gathered this time, no one has exerted pressure for Draskovic to be freed, his party leaves the impression of being in a panic, and the rest of the opposition are issuing carefully worded statements, so as not to disturb the public.

This time Milosevic has a much better chance of keeping Draskovic in jail - until he breaks his movement and energy and makes him harmless; or at least until he finishes things which Draskovic could have frustrated. That is the intention. But, to beat up, arrest and prosecute an opposition leader is a very risky move and as a rule, detrimental to all regimes, unless of course the matter pertains to a stable and long lasting dictatorship. In jail Draskovic could grow into a symbol of resistance against tyranny. Milosevic's regime cannot hope for legitimacy either at home or abroad while it keeps its main opponent in jail.

It is perfectly irrelevant now how and why all this happened. Apart from being abominable, as far as the opposition is concerned, it would also be stupid and harmful to try and prove that the demonstrations were a mistake and that the advantage gained with the assault on deputy Markovic in parliament has been lost. Much has been gained. In jail, Draskovic is the opposition's greatest victory ever, and it remains to be seen if they will know how, or wish to use it.

From now on, every opposition member can end his speech with: "Vuk Draskovic must be freed!" In any kind of debate with Milosevic and Seselj, this is the one argument to which they will never have a satisfactory answer, even though it would perhaps be better not to debate with them any more. We know what the Serbian opposition looks like and what the relations are between various parties and leaders. Many of them quietly rejoiced when Vuk was put away, and hope they won't see him for some time, even though they must be aware of the fact that they stand to gain with him in jail. It is not easy for them, for now, more than ever before, the fate of the entire opposition is linked to Draskovic, and if Vojislav Kostunica, Dragoljub Micunovic (Democratic Party of Serbia and Democratic Party leaders respectively - editor's note) and the others don't realize this, then there is not much hope for them or this country.

A prison term is the best protection from one's enemies and malicious gossip, especially for political prisoners. Vuk Draskovic is a political prisoner whose case is easy to defend. This is a country in whose parliament sit criminals and probably war criminals such as Raznjatovic, Dacevic and Seselj - all former and current owners of private armies. Seselj personally promoted eighteen Chetnik Voivodas of whom some also vote on laws, except when they take time off to beat up an opposition deputy. Vuk Draskovic is guilty, and this provokes the anger of the citizens and his supporters.

This is a country in which privately-owned banks rob the people, and the state helps them do so. The only forms of crime here are organized and state-sponsored crime. It has become impossible to distinguish between patriots and criminals, ministers and war profiteers, or poets and war mongers. State-owned banks make deals with black marketeers, and the police take racket, except when they are busy beating up demonstrators and arresting Vuk Draskovic.

This is a country without law and without courts, in which the President is relieved in one afternoon on trumped up charges of violating the Constitution, at the request of that very same Seselj who doesn't deserve to be put in jail, but in a cage. All this is taking place in an Assembly whose Speaker bases his moral authority on the fact that the investigation into corruption stopped at his door (allusion to Radoman Bozovic, forme Serbian PM - editor's note). This is a country which has been damned by the whole world and punished for starting and aiding war, and whose citizens are starving. Vuk Draskovic is in jail because he wasn't satisfied with such a state of affairs.

I do not want gentlemen of the legal profession to conclude that I am justifying violence and urging revolutionary methods under an unfavorable balance of strengths. I don't believe that it makes sense to charge against the Assembly, make war on special police units and hope that this regime will be toppled this way. On that particular night a friend said: "NATO can't harm these guys, let alone us". However, I do not believe that anything else makes much sense any more, and I approve if people sometimes show that there is still some life and resistance in them. I do not understand why the opposition and this country's desperate citizens should be the only ones to respect legal procedures and rules of etiquette, while the regime need not observe even the Ten Commandments.

It is hard to believe that Cosic's dismissal and the showdown with Draskovic happened in just two days by sheer accident. In principle, politics, like life, consist mostly of accidents and coincidences. This time, however, it would seem that the two writers walked into traps tailored to their temperaments and weak points. The generals invited Cosic to tell them in confidence what he thought; he told them his pet doubts, concerns and dilemmas; they jotted some down, and then someone picked a few and offered them to the Assembly.

In Draskovic's case, his and especially Danica's (Vuk Draskovic's wife, also detained - ed. note) temperament and fighting spirit could be counted on. They are not the kind of people to pass over the scene in the Assembly hall when Seselj's deputy-gorilla beat up a man. Speaker Radoman Bozovic's stand was pointedly provocative, or at least cool and level headed, as if he expected, and knew what was taking place outside. People started gathering in front of the Assembly; the police prevented them from installing loudspeakers and turning it all into a peaceful rally. The further course of developments was logical and inevitable.

Even if the speedy removal of Cosic and Draskovic had not been carefully planned and prepared, it would have produced much the same consequences it did. Milosevic will now continue in the same direction, inasmuch as is possible. The intention of declaring the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) illegal is serious, and none should have illusions that it will be easily abandoned, or that something will go awry with the judicial mechanism. Prosecutor Milosevic is sending a demand to judge Milosevic to pass the sentence. The largest opposition party is being suppressed, and this ends the parliamentary experiment in Serbia.

All resistance will be met with a greater show of violence. This regime rejected dialogue and tolerance long ago as civil hypocrisy. On this road of general brutalization all moral considerations are being thrown off quickly because force considers all morals as hypocrisy. That is how pornography and crime are reached. How far Milosevic and Seselj will go, together or individually, will depend on their force and the resistance of all the others.

It seems that Milosevic has understood that he can no longer be a popular leader, nor can he count on the support, or at least passivity, of the silent majority. If he intends to withdraw completely from the Bosnian war, and lie low in order to satisfy international busybodies, then he has to face cooled-off passions and poverty in Serbia. When this stage has been reached, then it becomes impossible to rule without beatings. If he has different plans, and continues with old or starts new wars, Milosevic needs beatings in Serbia, but he doesn't need Cosic, Draskovic or anything like that. It seems that Serbia and this regime have entered a new phase. It is still not clear if Milosevic will look to examples in Serbia's history or in modern Croatia.

The banning of a party creates complications, and the people might accept the banning of all parties as being a more just solution. And then, who needs this little freedom of the press? There will just be the leader, the people and the army. If someone doesn't like this semi-finished project, let them stand in the defence of Vuk Draskovic, such as he is, right now and without reservations.