Trading in Misfortune

Global strategy or geopolitics are a field in which experts and lunatics move confidently. It is often difficult to differentiate between them and there is no great need to do so. It would be best just to make a note of the degree of self confidence they have. Namely, the lunatics know exactly what the Germans want, what the Americans dream about and what the Russians have thought up, while the experts are not quite so positive in their assessments of the same.

This discipline has spread abruptly in most of the former Yugoslavia, which has changed from a subject of sorts, into many small objects. Disintegration and war have created a picture of Biblical chaos in which light and darkness, the sky and earth and men and beasts still have to be separated. Since it is pretty clear that internal forces cannot undertake this Divine task, but are only increasing the chaos, men have turned to world powers and the deciphering of their secret intentions and hidden interests. That is why many waiters in this part of the world are sick and tired of drunken analyses of strategic directions and breakthroughs.

As a rule, it is not necessary to be informed here, information gleaned from the press will do. The starting point here is the belief that everything is contrary to what everybody knows, and the biggest mistake is to believe in something that looks obvious and logical. In this way imagination and creativity are given a free hand, thus filling up the unbearable uncertainty of tomorrow. Good or gloomy forecasts - it doesn't matter. All that matters is to expect something to happen, and that it doesn't depend on us, but on the world powers.

It is said that the world powers always determined the fate of the Balkans, but also that Balkan countries far too often sought their arbitrage and left their business to them, often with the intention of spiting neighboring countries. There was a time when Yugoslavia was a positive exception to this rule. But now Serbs, Croats and Moslems are waiting for the world to reach an agreement on what to do with them, while they are in the meantime busy committing genocide.

This time the world agrees that the show must be stopped. It still remains to be decided who should do so and how. This time no one's great interests are at stake in the Balkans, because if this were the case, international tensions would have grown by now. Once we knew how to start a world war by firing only one bullet, while now we are destroying entire cities in vain. Once we were wooed and bribed; our governments bargained and vacillated which side to take, but now none of the sides here can find a single ally.

The Russians have disappointed the Serbs, the Germans are turning their back on the Croats, while the Moslems are losing the sympathy they won through suffering. They are all offering themselves and asking if anyone needs faithful vassals in the Balkans, but there are no takers. The world is just shrugging its shoulders. It seems that it is just as bad in the Balkans when the interests of the big powers overlap as when there are none. In fact, as far as the war in the former Yugoslavia is concerned, it would be over very quickly if one the world powers showed some interest in an outcome.

The war would perhaps end sooner if those waging it were fully aware of the world's indifference. But, the majority of them still believe that foreign powers started it and that they are conducting it by pulling some invisible strings, and that they will bring it to an end when they wish, and have fulfilled their secret plans. People here are waging war with a feeling that they must fight against these secret plans, because, as always, the all-powerful masters will show up in the end and have the final say. It is necessary to be prepared when that moment comes and to win as good a position as possible.

The world's great interest is taken as proof that all wish to achieve something here. At the same time, our cafe strategists reject as naive, the interpretation according to which the world is simply aghast at the triumph of evil. Why should the world be disturbed if they are not? However, stopping evil is the biggest and only interest of the great powers in this part of the world. It is our misfortune that this is our local evil, and that it has not managed to jeopardize the vital interests of the big powers.

We have reached a situation where we are trading with our own misfortune. The only thing we have to offer the world is evil. Milosevic was the most important international partner while it seemed that he was the main lord of evil and that he was capable of stopping it whenever he wished. It is obvious now that this is not quite the situation, even though Milosevic would like it to be. I think that this is the reason why he refuses to let monitors be stationed along the Drina River. It would become obvious how little he can influence the war. If, in the beginning, his role was the biggest, many other important criminals have show up in the meantime, and the world powers no longer know whom to turn to, or how to get them all together and make them see reason. As soon as they press one, another pops up on the other side.

The international community has finally abandoned expensive solutions and decided to wait while the price of evil here drops. Since it is expected that domestic producers and traders might try to prevent this and export their goods to neighboring countries, the world is taking preventive measures. That is why U.S. troops will arrive in Macedonia. Milosevic visited Skopje with the aim of persuading Gligorov that he didn't need the Americans and that he (Milosevic) would defend him, but to no avail.

Experts and lunatics now have fresh material and who knows where their analyses will end. Since I am one of them, and none too sure in which of the two groups I belong, here are my analyses. The future of the states and peoples of the former Yugoslavia is foggy and there is nothing the world powers can do about it. Only Slovenia got away. The Americans are trying to ensure Macedonia and prevent the opening of a southern front, if this doesn't prove too expensive. That which remains can be turned into anything.

The only sure fact is that all has been destroyed or has decayed. Nothing has yet emerged, nor is there an outline of something ordered and stable. All looks equally incredible and impossible. The internal process aims towards the creation of many small states - Serbian, Croatian and even Moslem, since Fikret Abdic has practically declared that he will not surrender his Cazinska Krajina to Alija Izetbegovic. (Abdic, member of B-H Presidency, governing a little pocket between Serb Krajina in Croatia and Serb-held territories in north-west Bosnia, with Bihac as its political center - ed. note). Someone might think that this is a fine example of European regionalism, were not all these small states in conflict with each other and hotbeds of violence, lawlessness and fascist terror. This means that they cannot start or end a war in a normal fashion.

On the other hand, if the international community opts for a policy of "active waiting", it will mean that all have been placed more or less, under arrest. I believe that it will become clear to the world soon that it is not a matter of national hatred here, but just hatred. Division along ethnic lines is not enough and does not resolve anything. A cure against hatred must be sought. The alternative is just to sit back and wait until it all passes of its own accord. In the meantime it is necessary to save the unfortunate Bosnians. Finally, it would be logical if Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia or the Bosnian states, and perhaps Kosovo, were offered some regional-national-confederal formula.

Once this point has been reached, perhaps a policy of patience is the most that the world can do for us. If they would but say: "We are watching you, and remembering, and we'll be there at the end to give each as they deserve. If you want to die, no one will stop you."

Vuk Draskovic, the only political prisoner in Europe is into his second week in jail.