Violence Continues

The triumvirate of governments is trying to camouflage its mistakes, especially those made by the Serbian government last week, by determining prices and threatening to impose fines and jail sentences. For three days the most serious dailies gave extensive coverage to the Serbian government's plan to freeze the prices of certain groups of products for a two-four month period. They wrote about the ultimatum made to the federal government which didn't favor a general freeze, i.e. of the Serbian government's decision to carry out its intentions on its territory (this is how the idea of banning "exports" to Montenegro originated). The Serbian government then charged its Trade Ministry with the task of denying all on Saturday. However, a comic statement was issued and its message was: People, there is no need for concern, your government is not doing anything.

The only thing that had been done was to force businessmen to prepare themselves for a two-four month freeze. That's the way things would be anywhere else in the world, if any government in the world were to let it be known that it was preparing delicate measures such as a price freeze, or a change of the national currency rate. Prices in shops were such that even the shopkeepers were embarrassed. It then occurred to the triumvirate of governments that there were speculators and war profiteers around, as well as a "state of war". That it is how it came about that low ranking officials were denying the topmost official who keeps claiming that Serbia is not at war, and that it only sends humanitarian aid to brethren outside Serbia. According to some calculations, salaries and pensions in Serbia would triple overnight if this aid were really reduced to humanitarian aid only. Naturally, the matter pertains to real terms, because a 300% growth would be below July's 431% inflation. A true picture of the general price growth in July should be looked for in the agreement between the Serbian government, the trade unions and the Chamber of the Economy, that July wages should stand at one billion and 43 million dinars. Compared to minimal wages in June which stood at 90 million dinars, the sum has increased 11.5 times. Naturally, this only refers to the state's indirect acknowledgment as to the approximate degree of inflation in July. The dilemma remains as to who will have the funds to pay wages out of this "minimal" sum, and when and how the people will be able to get checks or ready money. Commercial banks face disaster, since an increasing number of checks take longer and longer to reach their destination.

The noise being made by the triumvirate and the banks issuing money, makes it difficult to view the contents of the latest measures being taken by the monetary authorities. It has turned out that the federal government has decreed prices for some ten odd products, including their wholesale and retail margins. An announcement of measures to be taken by the National Bank of Yugoslavia (NBJ), is still expected. Serious and responsible businessmen refrain from making public statements before being acquainted with the new elements in monetary policy. It is understood that such novelties could be positive, but VREME has not managed to find a businessman who firmly believes in such a turnabout. In fact, the majority do not expect any great departures from the present policy of excessive money printing, and are concerned with the "balance of forces" and with who could become the new scapegoat. Judging by everything, this could be the fate of the central bank, and the new NBJ Governor could make history for having the shortest term in office.

In the meantime, i.e., on Thursday and Friday, shoppers would peep into shops, and shopkeepers would go through their post, hoping to find official information concerning prices. Only the triumvirate of governments wasn't taking any peeps. The authorities are calm because they know that taxes have not been decreased. They don't seem to realize that the hyperinflation which they have created has destroyed the tax base and the budget. It seems too, that a lot of people still believe, quite sincerely, that the triumvirate of governments really does administer something. This can be concluded from answers given by people polled in the streets. The most frequent dilemma: is the government lying or isn't it? Some believe that the government is sincere in its promises to lower prices, while others view this as more hot air. However, all continue to believe that the triumvirate is really serious in its intentions to do something.

On Thursday, however, the Civic Alliance recommended that people prepare stocks of foodstuffs which do not need refrigeration, because there will not be any electricity this winter, and to get their stoves ready and clean their chimneys - if they have them. Another piece of advice was to become indebted to the state as much as possible, since the state has already spent the population's future.

There is growing nervousness on all sides, so that excessiveness is not unusual. We must believe that there won't be any meat or cooking oil, since the state determines their prices. However, it will probably be possible to find these things in neighboring states.