An independant Slovenia

"The independant state of Slovenia will need seven to ten billion dollars in financial aid from the West; only then would Slovenia's economy be able to establish itself on the European market. It is not yet clear whether the European Community, or any of its members, is interested in providing financial aid to Slovenia."

This estimate, made by Jens Rojter, the leading specialist for Yugoslavia at the Munich-based Institute for South-East Europe, is based on an analysis by the Deutsche Bank and other financial institutions. Rojter's article

"The Expencive Dream of Autonomy -- Remarks on Slovenia's Ability to Survive Economicaly" was published in a pocket book entitled: "Yugoslavia: A Country Falling Apart" in August 1991., by the Hamburg-based publishing house.

Despite impending recognition, the question of financial assistance to Slovenia and Croatia has not yet been discussed. Rojter points to the Deutsche Bank's appraisal which claims that Slovenia's loss of the Yugoslav market would result in a 15 to 25 percent drop in GNP.

Rojter claims that Slovenia should orient its exports to non-Yugoslav markets. Likewise, Slovenia will have to look elsewhere for products it once received from the other Yugoslav republics and it will have to pay for these imports in foreign currency. Because Slovenia lacks hard currency reserves, it will need foreign credits: according to Rojter, 7.5 billion dollars will be needed over the next three years. Also, both Rojter and the Deutsche Bank estimate that Slovenia will have to assume between 2.5 and 3 billion dollars of Yugoslavia's foreign debt. Another six billion Slovenia owes to other Yugoslav companies.

Slovenia's severance of economic relations with other Yugoslav republics would necessarily affect those republics whose economies are tied to Slovenia's.

Slovenia's prospects appear dim enough, but one's view would darken considerably more if one takes into account the price Croatia is currently paying for its independance.