The Street In Defence Of The "Avram''

by Zoran Jelicic

Even though the people here have been forced, and taught, to forget everything, including yesterday's disasters and events, a text on the second week of curbing hyperinflation starts with a fact which belongs to a long gone past, and inflation in the period between December 21, 1993 and January 21, 1994. The general rise in prices in those thirty days stood at nearly 310 million percent. Nearly, because the exact statistical data have not been given yet.

Dragoslav Avramovic who heads the anti-inflationary program was the first to inform journalists of the figure. Only three days before the appearance of the new dinar, which street dealers dubbed the ``Avram,'' the daily growth of prices in Serbia and Montenegro stood at over 60%. For those who like to make comparisons between Serbia and Croatia, it is worth adding that the hourly growth of inflation in Serbia was 1.2%, and that this figure was close to the monthly inflation rate in Croatia in January.

The most important question now is: how great is the danger of hyperinflation making a comeback? This question has been repeated by many during a random poll in the streets. The people expressed hope that hyperinflation would never return, or they didn't believe that the new dinar would last. It is obvious, however, that the people support the new dinar wholeheartedly. The truth has a dreamlike quality. People find it hard to believe that the goods are back in the shops. The tradesmen can't believe their eyes when they see customers giving them real money. In short, everybody is happy.

Street dealers have accepted the new dinar and only voice doubts when speaking of the authorities' intentions. This stand was expressed last week by Belgrade Faculty of Economy professor Danijel Cvjeticanin who advised the opposition to cross over to the other side, and stop rejecting the anti-inflationary policy in advance. Cvjeticanin believes that they should force the authorities to carry the economic program and policy through to the end. This advice is based on the belief that protecting the population's interests should be the priority of all political parties. The political scene is changing unexpectedly. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) has undersigned an economic program with very wide market possibilities, even though they did their best to push market mechanisms to the periphery of the national economy before the introduction of sanctions and during the war. The opposition parties now reject the anti-inflationary policy, citing evil intentions on the part of the ruling party, and in spite of the fact that all the opposition parties have been urging economic freedom and a market economy in their economic programs.

On the other hand, the SPS does not mention the program very much. An SPS vice president, in an interview to Belgrade's highest circulation daily, just mentioned the program in passing. Even if there were no differences among the Socialists, it is obvious that the opposition has been given something it never dreamed about. The opposition has been given the new dinar without any scheming on its part. It has been given the opportunity of playing the game with facts, and of asking: is the Government implementing the program, and how; is the Central Bank protecting a stable dinar, is it susceptible to political pressures, and which ones? Briefly, are the authorities doing a proper job, and are they working in the interests of the people who voted them into power from the lowliest clerk to the president of the state?

Surely, it won't turn out that there are no adversaries in the game and that the players are on one side and the public on the other? The public or rather the population voted for their interests in the last years and against those who stand in the way of a new and healthy dinar. If the word did not conjure up bad memories, one would be apt to say that elections had finally taken place in Serbia.

Prices To Remember

In late January 1994, the following prices held in a village in Vojvodina.