A Shotgun Wedding

After the three-day-long negotiations, Haris Silajdzic, the Prime Minister of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Mate Granic, the Foreign Minister of Croatia, and Kresimir Zuban, the leader of the Bosnian Croats, put their signatures in Washington on "The General Agreement on the Federation" and "The Main Outlines of the Preliminary Agreement on the Confederation with the Republic of Croatia." The first document envisions a federation based on a cantonal principle in those parts of Bosnia-Herzegovina where Muslims and Croats are a majority population. There would be a central government and a parliament made of the council of representatives (elected on a proportional basis) and the people's council (on a parity basis). The foreign policy, the armed forces, the fiscal and monetary system, as well as the federal police would lie within the competence of the federal government, while everything else would be independently regulated by the cantons. The Confederation between the Bosnia-Herzegovinian Federation and the Republic of Croatia envisions its access to the Adriatic, the Croat transit through Neum, an agreement on monetary and customs union, apart from the regulation of

defense. The Council of the Confederation comprising the same number of deputies of both nationalities would be responsible for coordinating the policy.

The Croat-Muslim negotiations and concretisation of the Washington agreement are scheduled to continue in Vienna from 4th to 15th of March.

It is assessed in general that the Croat-Muslim agreement resulted from the pressure of the Clinton administration primarily on the Republic of Croatia since it apparently became clear that Bosnia-Herzegovina cannot survive as one state, at least judging by the current situation. All rounds of negotiations and all peace plans, like the Vance-Owen plan, which supported the latter option have fallen to ruins. Bosnian Serbs and their instigators from Serbia who appear to be the winners in this war have not been willing to accept anything short of what they have taken by force. Such a position encouraged Croatia (that has done some premeditation) to embark on a predatory course, regardless of the number of lives which would be lost if the example set by the Serbs was followed. Herzeg-Bosnia, the Croat state in Bosnia, was created exclusively for the purpose of fulfilling this goal so that the launching of the joint Serb-Croat platform on division of Bosnia-Herzegovina should come as no surprise. The Muslims refused any such thing regardless of the territory they would get; they would have found themselves pinched between two hostile neighbor states, in both of which there are a few who believe that the existence of Muslim enclaves represents only an interim solution before a final partition. When everyone started fighting everyone following the break-down of the Vance-Owen plan, such a solution appeared for some time to be the only one possible.

The Muslims have consistently refused to sign a peace plan which would result in a partition. On the other hand, Croatia and Serbia tried to sanction the Muslim refusal by means of a joint statement on the normalisation of relations during the last round of the Geneva talks. Especially since the Muslim-Croat conflict, particularly that in Central Bosnia, brought it to light that fighting the enemy including ethnic cleansing is not foreign to the Government in Sarajevo. In the end it turned out that the Bosnian war cannot die away on its own without three monstrous ethnic states being created. Their existence would by no means represent the stabilisation of the bloody territory of the former Yugoslavia. On the contrary.

The West has thus been forced to deal in the near future with two states which managed to change the borders in Europe after World War Two exclusively by force, i.e. the betrayed and squandered Islamic state which could become a ground for the most fanatic of actions such as are the sites of the exported Islamic revolution, which could have unforseeable consequences.

After everything thats taken place the job of seeking a solution is now being divided between U.S. as the worlds only super power and Russia as a potential one. The Americans, therefore, decided to deal with the Croats and Muslims and the Russians with the Serbs. Croatia was threatened with economic sanctions, the Bosnians with being left to oblivion, and the Serbs with being left to their destiny and the economic collapse because of the embargo which could last infinitely. The threats proved to be effective. On one hand, the Washington agreement was signed and, on the other, the assent for the opening of the Tuzla airport was given. Besides, everybody is happy;

the Muslim-Croat coalition is a competition to potential Greater Serbia.

The question is whether the Croat-Muslim federation in Bosnia-Herzegovina can be successful without the consent of the Bosnian Serbs who view the realisation of the signed agreement with considerable skepticism. Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic holds nothing against it on condition it contributes to peace and is not aimed against the Serbs. However, no one can be sure about the latter. When it comes to the borders, the U.S. position is clear on the issue (the amendment by the Senate, nb. 1334): the international borders between the independent state on the territory of the former Yugoslavia will remain the same as the internal borders between the constitutional republics of former Yugoslavia as defined in the federal Yugoslav Constitution from 1974 and cannot be changed without the consent of all interested states. The position of the Bosnian Serbs, and especially that of the Serbs in Krajina, is by no means promising if viewed in this light. It resembles a frying pan with a long handle which can be broken at any moment (the Corridor). The Serb Republic in Bosnia could possibly count on unification with Serbia (with significant territorial concessions), while the Serb Republic of Krajina is practically lost in that case (with a possible exception of Eastern Slavonija and Baranja). It seems that Croatia, besides being faced with a threat of sanctions, agreed to the arrangement with the Muslims because of certain guarantees that UNPA areas would be reintegrated within its territory - one way or another. Its because of this that the American administration believes that the Serbs could join the Bosnian-Croat federation. It is assumed that the regime in Belgrade could not survive the break-down of Krajina and would, therefore, put pressure on the Bosnian Serbs to accept the offer. A modus vivendi, such that suits Belgrade, could thus be found for Krajina. In any case a joint Croat-Muslim block has been created; the Croatian Army will remain in Bosnia-Herzegovina according to the agreement and Sarajevo will gain access to the sea.

Nevertheless, the Croat-Muslim relations are nothing like idyllic. Fierce fighting ensued after their original alliance broke up. According to the report of General Jean Cot, the UNPROFOR Commander in former Yugoslavia, in Mostar at one point the Croats fired 1,400 shells in response to 75 Muslim shells. The Croat population in Central Bosnia fled before the Army of Bosnia-Herzegovina and found refuge on the territory under Serb control, not even to mention joint Croat-Serb military actions in the same area. The convoys of the Croatian Defence Council (HVO) were allowed passage through Banja Luka. The Croat-run camps for Muslims and vice versa are not to be forgotten either.

The change in the leadership of the Croatian Union of Herzeg-Bosnia, when Mate Boban was replaced by Kresimir Zuban, was a prelude to the Washington agreement. Some claim that the strings are still being pulled by the same persons. In other words, the powerful lobby in Herzegovina maintained its control of the situation in the field and judging by the current state of affairs it cannot but feel betrayed by Zagreb and not react by sabotaging the agreement. The leadership in Croatia also seems divided over the issue; Gojko Susar, the Defence Minister powerful in Croatia, stated that the Washington agreement is hard for him to take. In any case, the Washington agreement has not been accepted with satisfaction in Croatia. The opinion poll conducted by the Zagreb-based weekly Globus showed that almost 40 per cent of those polled disapprove of the confederation between Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. The same paper stressed that such a confederation would comprise only 60 per cent Croats, 20 per cent Muslims, 10 per cent Serbs and almost 10 per cent Yugoslavs (whatever this may mean). It is also important to underscore that almost the entire Croatian opposition was unanimous in criticising the policy of Croatian President Franjo Tudjman towards Bosnia-Herzegovina, i.e. his support exclusively to Western Herzegovina. There are objections that the survival of all other Croats is thus endangered while Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic are thus being directly supported.

It is interesting that no kind of pressure was mentioned in Sarajevo, while officials in Zagreb described the Washington agreement as a result of a combination of American threats with sanctions and a promised credit for development (a half a billion dollars) along with joining the West-European military structure (The Partnership for Peace). Judging by the statements of Muslims officials the time has come for what they've wished for all along. There is an impression that what their representatives had agreed in Washington represents a step to something else. Zagreb may have found ulterior motives in a possibility to impose its own will by means of its indisputably superior economy, while Sarajevo can continue to insist on unified Bosnia-Herzegovina through international pressure. It seems that's where the key to the agreement is to be found. If the Bosnian Serbs are forced to make large territorial concessions which would render their joining Serbia not worthwhile, there is nothing left for them but to join the Bosnian-Croat federation. In that case, they could request a confederation with Serbia, and then there is nothing else left but to in a way revive that Yugoslavia which had been laid to rest. This solution does not appeal to any war lord on whatever side. By accepting the stick and carrot game, they continue to hope that they will eventually trick both the Americans and the Russians and eventually achieve that for which so many lives have been lost. Any other solution, i.e. a real agreement which would mean peace, leaves them with one possibility only - that is to step down from the political scene. But, such an agreement would have to be signed by someone else, since it is not likely that the current power-holders could deal with questions such as why has everything had to take place at all.