Victims of Somebody Else's War

Moslems have been saying that Serbs have overestimated their strength, that the war did not go smoothly for them, that the whole world condemned them as aggressors, that the Army is falling apart and is unable to draft enough reservist even in Serbia. Serbs, however, have been threatening the entire fascist Europe and are trying to convince everyone that they would resort to any means, that they are out of their minds and will not come to their senses.

It will turn out that Milosevic got himself a much stronger opponent in the image of Alija Izetbegovic (the president of Bosnia and Herzegovina) than Tudjman ever was. As a national leader he has a much more convincing pedigree than anybody else: he did not build his political carrier first and then suddenly discovered that he was a Moslem when he needed it. At his young age he was convicted for his national and religious beliefs to three years in prison, and then, during the eighties, to six more. He has learned to be tough and patient and his boldness should not be questioned either. Finding himself in power, this true Moslem (or rather moslem) did not care for revenge, and unlike Tudjman he refrained from flirting with triumph. He has never instigated nor encouraged tension between different nations.

One should trust Izetbegovic when he says that Bosnia cannot be a national state but only a civilian one, although it is quite clear that after the communist era everybody is striving exclusively for the formation of national states. The reason for that lies in the fact that the nations have somehow survived and the citizens did not stand a chance. In that sense, Bosnia is not an exception.

In order to survive, Bosnia should be wiser than other Yugoslav republics have proved to be so far. It should immediately impose on itself what others have yet to build. National domination is out of the question because of the Croatian experience, the proportions and the disposition of the three main nations. The solution is in strict division of power and in consensus, as it always has been. The sacred principle of consensus has, however, been violated by the misunderstood implementation of integrity and sovereignty. Surely, Izetbegovic has, from the outset, been aware what the war in Croatia meant for him personally, for Moslems and Bosnia. He has seen Milosevic and Tudjman dividing their peoples, he realized that there will never again be a common state and that keeping distance from both Serbia and Croatia gives Bosnia an opportunity to fight for its sovereignty. He has also seen that the Army was slowly closing on him from the West. Serbs have proclaimed their SAO (Serbian Autonomous Regions) and Moslems (and Croats) the sovereignty of Bosnia, although they do not recognize each other. Thus they are all paralyzed but there is no compromise: either sovereign Bosnia or Great Serbia.

There must be a line somewhere in Koran which suggests patience in such situations. What else could Alija Izetbegovic live to see? The recognition of Bosnia by the European Community - if there is going to be any - is not likely to change the state of affairs. It would only make Serbs even more nervous. There is more reason to hope for a change of course of the war in Croatia, which the international community is working on. The best thing would be for the "blue helmets" to come, which was rejected by Karadzic (leader of the Serbian Democratic Party in Bosnia), that is by Milosevic. However, it may be that quite soon Karadzic will need their presence badly in order to keep the front line in Croatia. He would then consent to their interference in Bosnia as well, to lift the threat of war. Finally, Izetbegovic is rightfully expecting that Allah could do something as well. In the meantime, he has to negotiate with the powers that be, represented by general Kadijevic. In the statement given after their last meeting, it says that the Army will secure the inter-national peace and disarm all the paramilitary formations, which in Bosnia refers almost exclusively to Serbs, who have been well armed by that same Army. This can be implemented only under the condition that the generals take over in Serbia as well and than create Military Yugoslavia instead of Great Serbia. In any case, if Kadijevic promised to keep peace and order in Bosnia, Izetbegovic must have given him something in return, since the Army is not in position to place moral support above the material. And finally, it is possible that the internal Army conflict between Serbs and Yugoslavs is getting more and more profound, and that this last segment wants to settle in Bosnia, where it was born. In that sense, it is symptomatic that the last meeting was held on Kadijevic's initiative. Alija Izetbegovic rejects the war, but he is determined to give a forceful resistance. He has recently strengthened the pushy wing of his party (The Party of Democratic Action) by electing the fundamentalist Omer Behmen and Sulejman Ugljanin vice-presidents. A while ago, he said that only a conscious decision can produce an act of aggression against Moslems, which is probably true. The fear of war in Bosnia is so strong that no accidental incident could possibly cause an avalanche. When he said "a conscious decision", he meant, of course, Serbian action, although in some respects Croats could also find the spreading of war to Bosnia convenient. Karadzic alone would never dare, and would probably never succeed, to push the Bosnian Serbs in war against Moslems. Even without a war he has succeeded in making all the territories with Serbian majority independent, but that is still not enough for Great Serbia. The territories have to be connected and that can be achieved only by war and massive migrations. The responsibility for such an act could be undertaken only by Slobodan Milosevic, by whose side are the people who believe that, after all, Serbs will enjoy a hundred years of happiness in their own state. It is possible that Milosevic himself does not believe in that any more, but he knows for sure that he will be in power for as long as this war lasts. Izetbegovic was so far saved by his peace- oriented stand, but the most extreme Serbian leaders are already mentioning the genocide. And a genocide can only be defeated by starting another one.