51 : 49

The Association of Russian Writers awarded the ``Mikhail Sholohov'' award to Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic. The Belgrade press did not devote much space to the occasion. This was one of the rare occasions when Karadzic could travel without being afraid that he might be arrested as a war criminal, or when he travels in the capacity of a negotiator in the name of Bosnian Serbs. The whole story practically boiled down to his earlier meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev.

``You can count on Russia's strong support, and I underscore this, only if your choice is peace. That means you can count on 49% BosniaHerzegovina territory for the Serbs, regardless of the fact that they make up 33% of the population. If you agree to this, I repeat, you can count strongly on sanctions against Yugoslavia being lifted. And, hand in hand with peace, Yugoslavia's return into the world family of nations, and economic aid for the reconstruction of a devastated economy,'' said Kozyrev.

We have cited the world news of the day (June 14) here according to a report in the Belgradebased daily ``Vecernje Novosti.'' Similar articles were brought by other dailies. The only exception was ``Politika,'' the most influential daily in the country. In its version Kozyrev promised the lifting of sanctions and aid to Serbs (the daily does not say which Serbs). There is no mention of the rest of what ``Vecernje Novosti'' carried. ``I also want to make it clear, so that there won't be any misunderstandings or misconceptions between us, that there is another choice: the avoiding of a reasonable territorial compromise, with the attempt of holding by force all 70% territory which you control now. More precisely: 70% is too much and such a choice would mean war. If your choice is war, and I believe it won't be, then I can tell you immediately clearly and publicly: don't count on Russia in that case.'' And for the third time: ``If your choice is peace and a reasonable compromise, I repeat, then you can count on Russia's firm support and in that case, if necessary, Russia will be prepared to enter into a political confrontation with anyone.''

Even the most exhaustive reports claim that in his answer to Kozyrev, Karadzic said that ``we all'' want peace, ``are tired of the crisis,'' ``want a free economy and free society.'' As a born peacemaker, he spreads his hands and agrees with all that has already been said, adding: ``It is very difficult to stop civil wars.'' Perhaps because he knows how easy they are to start. Karadzic then goes on to say that it would be possible to discuss even 49% if the quantity of ``Serb'' territory were exchanged for the quality of ``Muslim'' territory, and if the ``Serb'' state in Bosnia were ``in one piece,'' and if Sarajevo, Tuzla and some other places were to belong to the Serbs... And so on.

Speaker of the Serb Republic in BH Momcilo Krajisnik said that the cartographic offer of the contact group in Geneva concerned ``the Croats' and Muslims' megalomaniac demands for the whole of Western Bosnia, Krupa, Novigrad, Prijedor, Sanski Most, a part of Kljuc and Mrkonjic Grad, Kupres, Srbobran, Doboj, Derventa, Teslic, Modrica, Brod, Samac, Brcko and the wider area around Gorazde, i.e., the right bank of the Drina River.'' And of course: ``We will never agree to give up those places in which, during the past two wars, genocide was committed against Serbs.''

On Wednesday, Krajisnik informed the Department for Strategic Research of the French PM's cabinet of the same thing, only in different words. ``We cannot agree to increasing enclaves in Western and Eastern Bosnia, thus narrowing down the corridor in Posavina.''

In the meantime, Serb Republic in BH VicePresident Biljana Plavsic said, that the way things stood, there was no need to talk about percentages, since one final battle was all that was needed for a lasting solution. Serb Republic in BH Army Commander General Ratko Mladic whose job in maintaining ``a little over 70% of the former BH territory'' in Serb hands is becoming increasingly difficult, has not said anything about percentages yet.

Serbian Commissioner for Refugees Bratislava Morina has announced a revision of the refugee status for around 500,000 people currently in Serbia, and their return to their hearths, especially young and able men, now that the ``war is over.''

The alleged cartographic proposal for the division of BH and the ``take it or leave it, no bargaining'' stand of the UN contact group, the European Union, the United States of America and Russia, was carried only by the daily ``Politika'' on June 12. The authenticity of the maps has not yet been confirmed or denied. The organ of the Yugoslav Army ``Vojska'' claims that a ``loss'' of 21% difference in territory between the present 70% Serbheld territory and the envisaged 49%, will be resolved by returning the greater part of five Posavina municipalities to the MuslimCroatian federation, the extending of the present Autonomous Region of Western Bosnia in the east and south, toward Prijedor and Sanski Most, i.e., Drvar, and the extension of the central part in favor of the Croatian Muslim federation, approximately along the line LivnoJajceDoboj in the west, and NeumUgljevik in the east. In Eastern Bosnia the linking of the area of Sarajevo and a greatly extended zone around Gorazde and the Muslim enclave in the SrebrenicaRogatica area are foreseen. Sarajevo, Visegrad, Rogatica, Zvornik, Brcko and Doboj (the grey zones) would remain under UN protection. Mostar would come under the protection of the European Unioninitial funds have already been approved, and civilian police are being trained for the job.

It all started in the Lisbon with Cutilliero's maps on the division of BH along ethnic lines, on which the three leaderships of the three local ``nations'' had previously agreed after a meeting in the villa ``Konak'' in Sarajevo. All three sides confirmed their agreement in Lisbon and on the way home, in the plane, decided unanimously that they now disagreed.

At the start of the conflicts in summer 1992, 1.2 million BH citizens had already become homeless (they accounted for over threequarters of all the refugees or displaced persons in Yugoslavia); at the end of the same year, this figure passed two million, and the number of BH citizens among the three million refugees recorded by the UNHCR, increased significantly. The latest data issued by international organizations late last month claim that 2.7 million BH citizens are refugees. Before the war, there were 4.5 million inhabitants in BH.

Since the start of the war in BH, only the agreement reached by Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Croatian President Franjo Tudjman in early 1991 in Tito's hunting lodges Karadjordjevo and Belja, has endured. It remains a secret to this very day what the two Presidents agreed on, unless we count a recent statement by former Yugoslav PM Ante Markovic which has been partly denied, that the partitioning of BH was decided then.

Karadzic and Bosnian Croat leader at the time Mate Boban, later confirmed the existence of some kind of an agreement when they signed a bilateral agreement in Graz, Austria, in May 1992, a few days after having agreed with ``Cutilliero's maps.'' And that would be all, if we don't count last week's statement by Bosnian Croat Army Commander General Ante Rosa, who said that the Croats would not fight against the Serbs if the goals could be reached without war. The goals were not mentioned.

Cartography, cantonization, provincialization, agreements, truncheons and sugarnone of these have succeeded in the former Yugoslavia. This is why optimism over the world's latest concerted effort, is small. Relevant world statistics show that twofifths of the refugees never return to their former homes.

Regardless of the final outcome, the local leaders will inform their frightened citizens through indoctrinated media that another historical victory has been won. Chief of Staff General Perisic is an example to point. At celebrations marking the Yugoslav Army's new Army Day, he said that: ``Three armies had been created from the Yugoslav People's Army. Two were successful. This was the fourth year that they were fighting against the whole world.'' Victories against the whole world are not celebrated, just those won against one's own people: so far they have produced over 200,000 dead, several times as many physical and mental invalids, and nearly four million refugees.

When peace is signed and they shake hands all round, it will be the peace of graveyards.