Death In Athens

Vecernje Novosti, another Belgrade daily, said the terrorists justified their attack claiming Omer Sipasiogula was responsible for ``crimes against the Greek Cypriot community and the suffering of the Kurds.''

FoNet news agency and the Athens correspondent of the Belgrade daily ``Borba'' added that November 17's statement focused on the war in Bosnia and the West's relations towards the Serbs, i.e. that the Serbs were unjustly accused of ethnic cleansing in Bosnia, that the santions against Serbia were unjust. The statement adds that the sending of Turkish UN peacekeepers to to Bosnia under the influence of reports of ethnic cleansing ``showed the depth of immorality, decay, prostitution and political bankruptcy which are the characteristics of the great Western powers and their new world order.''

There has been no explanation why the state media here failed to report that part of the statement which the Athens daily Elefterotipia reported as clearly proSerb.

There are two possible explanations: the authorities possibly believe that the statement is just another form of media satanization and the public should not be exposed to it, or the decision to keep quiet is aimed at preventing misunderstandings in interpreting the ``eternal and indestructible SerbGreek friendship.''

Observers feel that the killing of the Turkish diplomat has nothing to do with Serbia or the war in Bosnia. The Greeks and Turks have always had tense relations, especially recently. The Greek economy is in bad shape, its prestige in the world is declining over the refusal to recognize Macedonia and its economic blockade of that country. Add to that the difficulties facing Turkish Prime Minister Tansu Ciller who's caught between mistrust from traditionally influential military circles and the surge in popularity of fundamentalist Islamic parties.

Greek Foreign Minister Carolas Papoulias announced the start of a dialogue with Turkey in September at a meeting with that country's FM Hikmet Cetin a day after the killing. The speculation is that the US is putting pressure on both countries to normalize relations.

The reasons for the terrorist attack should be sought in the fact that someone is not in favor of that normalization.

It's hard to say who that someone is. November 17 is one of the most mysterious terrorist organizations of this century. The Greek Public Order Ministry claims that they are foreign secret services. In the 19 years since they first appeared those terrorists have killed 20 people (Greeks, Turks, Americans including the CIA bureau chief in Athens) but they left no trace nor was a single one of them ever caught. That can be explained in part by the unpopularity of carefully selected targets and the fact that they rarely wounded innocent bystanders. That enabled November 17 to create the image of a just avenger.

Their trademarks have not changed since they started except for bombings which came later. All their victims were shot with.45 pistols (probably Colt M1911 A pistols once used by the Greek army) and their statements were found in garbage cans after anonymous phone calls. The only novelty in the latest statement is that it was typed on a computer not a typewriter and that its tone moved from ultraleftist to nationalist.

``The killing of a diplomat is always aimed at destabilizing the country where it took place,'' says Dr. Konstantin Obradovic of the Belgrade School of Law. ``It leads to deteriorating relations between the two states involved. There simply is no substance to claims of an alliance between Greece and Serbia. It's just a voicing of media statements based on almost identical stands on Macedonia. The terrorists' statement on Serb interests is probably aimed at gaining support of the nationalist public.''

Still, by mentioning the unjust treatment of the Serbs as a terrorist motive and making the new world order an enemy the statement could not but draw international attention. Namely, no one has forgotten the threats by Bosnian Serb Chief of Staff General Milovanovic (``We can't send bombers to London and New York but we have Serbs in London, New York, Australia''), Bosnian Serb Foreign Minister Aleksa Buha (``The Serbs will activate special terrorist units and suicide bombers if necessary'') and Serbian Radical leader Vojislav Seselj (``Missile attacks on countries that allow attacks to be launched from their territories on the Bosnian Serbs''). Attention also focused on HVO General Ivan Andabak who said he'd trained abroad with the IRA as well as on statements by Bosnian Moslem officials that they will turn to the Islamic world if the West deserts them.

``Undoubtedly, the losers in the wars in former Yugoslavia, either those who lose militarily or lose international support, could turn to terrorism as a means to an end,'' says Dr. Predrag Simic of the Institute for International

Politics and Economy. ``The same could happen if a long term war continues as a low intensity conflict. Terrorism would then be aimed at drawing international attention.''

For now, the relevant international factors are trying to prevent any side from reaching a complete dead end and the war does not seem to be calming down.

``Parts of secret police files opened in the former Eastern block show that they were behind many terrorist organizations in the 1960s and 70s,'' Obradovic says. ``The media simplified it to the USSR inspiring those activities, Czechoslovakia supplying the weapons, East Germany giving specialists and operatives and some countries, such as Libya, training grounds. A significant drop in terrorist activities occurred after the fall of the Berlin wall. It is clear that vast logistics are needed for those activities and even though the attacks were ordered by cool, realistic politicians the operatives had to be idealists. The warring sides in Bosnia cannot organize that kind of logistical support, they even lack enough people with the knowledge of other languages, and they don't have the idealists ready to die.''

In the course of their three years the Yugoslav wars did not spill over into other countries nor have terrorist attacks been used to blackmail important members of the international community. But, if you put the killing of civilians and POWs, destruction of buildings, ethnic cleansing into the category of war crimes that does not mean other things did not happen which fall into the undefined category of terrorism such as the abduction of Moslem civilians from a train in Strbci (1993), attacks by Croatian troops in Yugoslav army uniforms in Vojvodina (1992), the bombing of the Jewish community buildings in Zagreb (1991).

``You should note that the breakup of Yugoslavia was accompanied by terrorist attacks,'' says Dr Vladan Vasiljevic. ``The figures show that some groups carried out attacks with the aim of creating insecurity among civilians. Witness accounts from Borovo Selo, Vukovar, both Krajinas (in Croatia and Bosnia) show that unknown people appeared in villages in those areas and organized the lynching of prominent local people, spread nationalist and religious hatred, carried out attacks. All this carries elements of terrorism. The direct cause of the Bosnia war was the attack on the Serb wedding in Sarajevo. The available information does not show who did the shooting.''

What are the chances of the former Yugoslavia becoming a hotbed of global terrorism?

``I don't think so,'' says Obradovic. ``There simply isn't anyone to use it against. The Moslems are expecting too much from the international communitypolitical support and aid in reconstructionto let themselves into terrorism. The West's extreme sensitivity to terrorism is an important element. The same is true for the Croats. In regard to the Serbs, they know that would mean the loss of any kind of position in the West and the loss of Russia's support. The authorities in all the former Yugoslav republics see the consequences clearly.''

Simic is much more skeptical. ``Bosnia and Herzegovina have become a laboratory in which interests win or lose. The national contingents in UNPROFOR are keeping up their countries' presence and projecting their power. I am not excluding the possible use of militant groups for individual goals if some interests were in the background.''

Vasiljevic says war profiteers, criminals and politicians are in collusion in all the newly independent republics and adds: ``You should not forget the fact that many Serbs, Moslems and Croats live abroad and that sufficient numbers of militants could be found among them. Some individuals have been involved in terrorism before. Serious thought should be given to the conflicts and misunderstandings between the Bosnian and Krajina Serbs and authorities in Serbia. There is increasing talk of rooting out traitors, especially in Belgrade. The kidnappings of Veljko Dzakula (highranking official of Krajina) and Dusan Reljic (journalist of VREME) are warnings.''

One thing is sure. The invoking of the Serb Cause is a wonderfully flexible platform for any terrorist group because it gives them a choice of potential victims. The Serb Cause is the ideal mask for any amount of dirt. November 17 is a prime example.