Three More Years

Yugoslavia's airlines fly two lines today compared to the 50 flights a day they had before the sanctions.

Essential spare parts are being smuggled in with difficulty at high prices while pilots are barely able to get enough flying time to extend their licences.

You can't avoid wondering how safe you are on one of the Yugoslav flights. Before the sanctions were imposed experts warned of some safety failings but maintenance crews coped with them.

There are several things that could cause problems in airline safety; personnel (flying and maintenance crews, flight control...), aircraft, equipment, ground support, instruments, organization and maintenance, discipline and procedure.

Before the blockade JAT and AVIOGENEX flight crews flew an average 60 hours a month. Now they're just barely flying enough to renew their licences. Whether that's enough to ensure the high professional levels necessary to guarantee safe and comfortable flights is anybody's guess. The pilots are the least of problems. They are men who love their work and undergo constant checks both medical and in flight.

DC9 pilots are in better shape than others because they have a flight simulator in Yugoslavia. Boeing 737 crews can take inflight and other tests here but have to go abroad to fly in simulators. Allegedly, they've already been to Greece and Brazil. Logging flying time on simulators is not the only way to get the hours they need. They fly the Belgrade Tivat andPodgorica lines. There are some four flights daily on those routes increasing to around 10 in the summer.

Before the ban on Yugoslav airlines flying outside the country a single plane clocked more time a day than all the aircraft now do in a month.

The Federal Flight Inspectorate has granted flight permission to JAT's DC9s, Boeing 727s, 737s and to AVOIGENEX's two Boeing 727s and three 737s. JAT's three DC10s aren't flying because they're long range aircraft with large seat numbers. Only some of those planes are flying, some have been put in storage and the rest are being cannibalized for spare parts.

Quality control is still good because the needed equipment is available. Those services were sold to other carriers before the embargo.

The greatest problem is getting enough operating supplies such as oil. That is being solved through smuggling from neighboring countries at high cost. Kerosene is produced in Yugoslavia with most of it going to the military and a small part to civilian carriers. Flight fuel also comes from republic and federal reserves.

Another three years of this and Yugoslavia's airlines won't be safe. The stockpiles of spares and aircraft are slowly being depleted and are not being restocked.

Before the sanctions the Yugoslav airlines were drowning in debts. The state subsidized them because they helped the country's image and were irreplaceable. The future of the Yugoslav airfleet depends directly on the sanctions.

Three years from now the airlines will have to decide whether to risk it and fly or close up shop. We'll see what happens.