Insignia Crisis

Diplomats in the UN Security Council ended their play on words and letters over the new name of the UN peace force in Croatia on March 31. The official full title now is: United Nations Confidence Restoration Operation in Croatia. That was recorded in resolution 981 on extending the mandate which might not have been adopted if Zagreb had not expressly demanded the addition of the words "in Croatia". Probably as a concession to Knin which has been saying the new name is not acceptable, the abbreviation is just UNCRO without the IC at the end. Some noted that the CRO is the international abbreviation for Croatia and Zagreb can be fully content.

"There is no more UNPROFOR mandate, no more UNPA zones and the word Yugoslavia is not mentioned in the new resolution," said Croatian foreign minister Mate Granic and added that it is the most important document the Security Council ever adopted in Croatia's favor.

Krajina (RSK) foreign minister Milan Babic agrees with Granic: "This UN operation has the political intention of treating the Serbs in Krajina as part of the independent state of Croatia".

Zagreb and Knin also feel that the UNCRO mandate abolishes the Vance plan. Croatian deputy parliament speaker Vladimir Seks told Zagreb "daily Vecernji List that resolution 981 "stresses and establishes that this a UN mandate in Croatia, which politically abolishes that part of the Vance plan that Knin and Belgrade relied on."

RSK parliament speaker Branko Lezajic agrees that the Vance plan is dead: "The plan is annulled and the peace process is back where it was before the plan."

Belgrade also agrees with Zagreb and Knin. Radmilo Bogdanovic, deputy parliament chamber spker and chairman of the committee for relations with Serbs outside Serbia, said resolution 981 should be viewed as the implementation "of the third stage of the Vance plan". He said it is a starting point for final political talks "everything else is just packaged consolation for Croatia". He also rejected Security Council calls for mutual recognition of the former Yugoslav republics.

How do you interpret that statement? As rhetorical support for the RSK to prevent them from sliding towards Pale, pressure from the hard-line nationalists wing in the SPS on Milosevic or his assessment that he doesn't have to be a peacemaker at any cost to gain more concessions from the international community?

Mention of 981 as the third stage of the Vance plan which stresses the territorial integrity of Croatia is believed to be the painless way for the FRY to get out of its obligations towards Knin.

Official representatives of Knin and Zagreb don't exclude the possibility of more talks with both sides expecting hard bargaining. In that context, point scoring has begun on the ground. Just before 981 was adopted, Croatia banned RSK trucks from using the highway )over RSK signs on the road) and lifted the ban once it was adopted. In return, the RSK suspended permission for UN patrols in western Slavonia. Also, while Croatian police blocked UN peacekeepers who still have the old UNPROFOR insignia and don't let them pass until they replace them with UNCRO insignia, the commander of Serb forces in Slavonia said they couldn't accept the new insignia.

The peacekeepers can be expected to continue their work regardless of any steps by Knin and Zagreb. Both sides know that they can't face off without a third party. That situation can only be upset by the situation in Bosnia if a military solution there proves feasible. Namely, while monitoring the Moslem offensive in Bosnia, both Croatia and the RSK have got their troops in place; Croatia's are in the hinterland of Knin and the RSK has its troops around the Bihac pocket.