Blackmailing Sarajevo

"We achieved as much as our maturity as a nation allowed," Rajko Kasagic the incoming Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) Prime Minister said about the Dayton agreement and added: "We got the most that we could because we weren't united when we needed it most and we're not united now."

Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic held a meeting in Belgrade with virtually the entire RS leadership: President Radovan Karadzic vice-presidents Nikola Koljevic and Biljana Plavsic, parliament Speaker Momcilo Krajisnik, outgoing Prime Minister Dusan Kozic, Kasagic, home and foreign affairs ministers Toma Kovac and Aleksa Buha and general Zdravko Tolimir. They all agreed to "implement the agreement as a whole and all the obligations it includes". That was signed by Karadzic for the RS.

The importance of that meeting is that none of the people present, not even Krajisnik, repeated earlier statements, denying Milosevic's authority to sign the agreement. In that context Kasagic's statement on maturity and unity gains weight. Since the RS leaders absolutely equalized the people to themselves they didn't seem to be at the level that "the historic moment" demanded of them. Kasagic has to form a government and he'll probably choose ministers for their maturity. The more so since Karadzic agrees with him that the "Serbs need statehood wisdom now more than ever before".

Kasagic was a compromise solution between Banja Luka and Pale after the Serb military defeat in the Bosnian Krajina: he is from Banja Luka and both Karadzic and Krajisnik trust him. When the choice was made the most important thing was to dampen the anger of parliament members from the area who condemned Pale with open support from Belgrade. It was important to win time, keep the situation where it was and wait for what would happen and that is why Kasagic hasn't appointed ministers yet.

Now that the Dayton agreement links the lifting of the sanctions against the FRY to the charges against Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic in the International war crimes tribunal in The Hague things are different. Attitudes on the fate of those two are also a vote on the political future of the RS political elite they represented. In other words, should we stand by them and risk political oblivion or leave them to their fate.

There are arguments for both options. While Banja Luka celebrated the Dayton agreement, Serbs from Serb-held areas of Sarajevo demonstrated against parts of the agreement.

"We won't accept giving Vogosca to the Muslim authorities the more so since the Serb people bled every day to save their homes," Vogosca mayor Rajko Koprivica said. "I prefer dying in Ilidza than in a refugee camp," a Bosnian Serb Army (BSA) officer said.

Karadzic welcomed those outbursts of anger (if he didn't order them himself). First he told Pale TV on November 24 that Moslem-Croat Federation police won't come into Serb parts of Sarajevo for at least five years and added that the Sarajevo Serbs will have their own authorities. He also said: "We are convinced, and we told President Milosevic, that Sarajevo can be discussed before, and in Paris." Then he went a step further. He told the BBC on November 26 that negotiations on Sarajevo would reopen "on a division or international protection" of Serb areas over a period of at least five years. He said he would go to Paris for the signing of the peace agreement and when asked if he knew he could be arrested he said: "That would be stupid because I am the only man who can sign peace in Paris". That same day he told WTN that he isn't afraid of arrest in the RS because "many western troops would fall" in the attempt. Finally, Karadzic said NATO won't be able to come in until his parliament approves it.

There are assessments that the Pale Empire is striking back. Specifically, doubts were cast on Milosevic's credibility won in Dayton. Karadzic is believed not to care so much about Sarajevo under Serb control as much as he wants to use the city to save his own skin. There are no disagreement on that point with General Mladic and that is shown by a telegram Mladic sent to the demonstrating Serbs in Grbavica which promised the BSA would not leave Sarajevo.

The whole idea seems to boil down to blackmailing the Serbian President and the US. In simple terms they're saying: If you want the Dayton agreement to survive leave us in our positions and find a way to obstruct the Hague tribunal and we'll forget about Sarajevo.

Biljana Plavsic confirmed that they are counting on that option. She told NTV Studio B that Karadzic, on behalf of the RS delegation, initialed the Dayton agreement after Milosevic promised to protect the Sarajevo Serbs and build "a new Serb Sarajevo somewhere near Vojkovici and Lukavica". Karadzic signed the Dayton agreement only after Milosevic and FRY President Zoran Lilic agreed to those terms, she said.

A possible deal is in the air and all relevant political factors in the RS have to take it into account. If Milosevic backs Karadzic and company for the sake of the agreement politicians will want to be on their side. If the agreement has changed the rules of the game in the RS then it's politically wise to "fight for the RS through political means".

It's hard to judge which option will win. Karadzic still has control over a loyal and powerful police force which could solve the problems in Serb Sarajevo and eastern Bosnia. Its role as the last line of defence was stressed by Krajisnik in his claims that the police will be the last to withdraw from Sarajevo.

On the other hand, Milorad Dodik, head of a group of independent parliament members hostile to Pale, and Bosnian Krajina deputies are demanding that the Pale leaders face parliament and take a stand on the agreement at the same time sending congratulatory messages to Milosevic. Dodik also disputed the legitimacy of the RS authorities in implementing the agreement and called for elections.

There are many reasons why radical solutions, such as the toppling of Karadzic, don't suit Belgrade at the moment; if for no other reason then because Belgrade claims the war in Bosnia has ended successfully. Informed sources expect Kasagic to form a national salvation government in agreement with Belgrade's protégés in Banja Luka and Pale. That is important for the start of the implementation of the agreement. when that happens things will seem different.