The Emperor's New Dream

Peace has been signed, a new year has commenced and all seems as though people will, en masse, answer the summons of the helmsman-peacemaker and get down to rowing, not asking for directions, whether the boat has been untied, even if it is in water at all, nor whether any such boat and oars exist there at all.

Namely, Milosevic has accurately recognized the post-war disposition, fatigue from devastation and destruction, even of analyzing responsibility and blame, and a will to believe in something positive. If we are prepared to forget, he would wish we'd start with him, selectively. To stop mentioning how he had pushed, incited, called out and lead us into the war, and start talking how nicely he had signed peace; to remember only how he had freed us from the sanctions, and not how he had provoked them, and above all else, he would like to be forgotten as president. In that sense he would like to show how the opposition has only continued making noises, provoking chaos, how it has refused to respect elders and is resisting historical progress, which was once referred to as "filling up one's bag with stones".

It is in people's nature to do something, even when it seems completely illogical. People cleaned streets in Sarajevo and fixed up their houses whenever the bombs ceased showering upon them, and therefore have not stopped working in Serbia either where work seems no less uncertain. All depends on the will of Slobodan Milosevic which has no obstacles on its path. Eight years of his reign in Serbia represent the history of the unleashing of that will by systematically eliminating all institutional obstacles. All of his policies, including the war, lead to that goal.

On top of that he has retained his sense of form, so that, looking at it from far away, we have everything here as in a normal state, except that all authority and responsibility has been squeezed out of state institutions, so that from the government downwards the whole structure resembles Slobodan Milosevic's massive personal secretariat. In that sense, the general example to be admired by all others is how he had modeled the position of president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

I believe that Milosevic's dream as a ruler would be completely fulfilled if he could formally release himself of all functions and, as a private citizen, pull all the strings, deciding on war and peace, replacing ministers and generals and receiving foreign heads of state. He doesn't like to put in an appearance, as if daylight annoys him; none of his personal pleasures or weaknesses are known, and it is not apparent that he needs authority for anything apart from fulfilling himself with the feeling of power. It doesn't seem as though he is specially interested in a better place in history, which it is anyways too late to worry about now. A man whose name was chanted all over Serbia, now seems to wish that everybody forget him so that only he could know who's the boss.

The problem has ceased to be his war policy and conflict with the rest of the world. He pulled out of war not by his own will and not out of any knowledge or belief, since those weren't the reasons he had started off with. He withdrew before a higher power, after heavy losses and misfortune for which he failed to show the least bit of regret and compassion. Politicians usually willingly appear on scenes of misfortune where their conduct shows distress, but this leader does not ask of his people to like him but to accept him as fate. Besides, the support of his reign with time became small, a criminal-conspirator circle of people in front of whom it is forbidden to show the least, even non-existent weakness.

That he is forced into withdrawing from Croatia and Bosnia, and into improving his relations with the world, still cannot be any guarantee for the internal consolidation of his country. Where is Milosevic headed can be detected by the way he had forced the opposition out of parliament, directly after agreeing on peace. He will not be able to wage war anymore, but his concept of ruling remains the biggest obstacle since such a government endangers any kind of state consolidation. There were no special reasons to put some internal relations in order even during the war, but he has obviously opted for leaving the largest number of the most crucial problems open. So, do we need a leader if everything is just fine and if things are settled in accordance with the law and through reliable institutions? Therefore, if the importance and magnitude of a leader are measured by the magnitude of his problems, then Milosevic is a giant. Here even the borders of the country could become an issue, since the relations between Serbia and Montenegro, as well as the status of Kosovo are provisionally defined, more through force than by law, which means that they demand constant arbitration from the top. Money was already completely ruined once and can easily be made so again, if the need arises. What remains of the state then? Where to start off organizing and arranging circumstances if borders and money are unstable, and Milosevic's personal interest demands that they remain so? Everything that would be done in that direction would have to be in spite of and against his will. His police is under the obligation to nip any attempt of establishing law and order in the bud. On top of that, he is not a person who would willingly impose a formal dictatorship, even if he wouldn't have to worry about reactions from the outside world at all. Dictatorship is automatism which agrees with lazy rulers and he, most probably, loves to work and to establish, maintain and nurture his power on a daily basis. Besides, dictatorships are transparent. It is known who does what and who is responsible for what, which would be regarded as almost equally unacceptable by the local gangster elite as a truly legal state.

As far as Milosevic personally is concerned, no real changes should be expected here in any directions. A small amount of hope remains that the Americans and others can still motivate him with money to, despite everything, introduce and go by certain regulations, but mostly those that deal with trade and business. And as that business mostly remains in the family at large, I am afraid that it will not drastically influence the quality of our lives.

What could happen to make the opposition, possibly, achieve something in the new year? First, we will have elections only if Milosevic expects victory. Second, the opposition would have to step out united, which means that they first have to achieve a minimal consensus, and for such a task we would need someone like Richard Holbrooke, who would have to go from Draskovic to Djindjic and Seselj for months and explain to them the rules of behavior. If such a thing could come about, then elections wouldn't be held, or they would all of a sudden become invalid, as the victory of the opposition in Zagreb became invalid. Even if the opposition were to conquer parliament while managing not to kill each other off in the process, Milosevic could still tease us with his presidential authorizations. And if it comes to the worst, there's the police.

All in all, there are no reasons why this year should be less wishy-washy than the last, only somewhat more boring. Which doesn't mean that we should not grab, bicker and scream on every occasion and for every reason. Simply, it is healthier that way, and besides, it is not known what triggers off what and what its purpose is in the last instance. After all, he who gets really fed up with Milosevic, who can't stand this lawlessness anymore, can always turn to America, across the Drina.