Election Geometry

After drawing and re-drawing Serb borders all over the Balkans, they have now turned to drawing the borders of electoral districts. On April 30 the federal government called for changes in the existing electoral law for Federal Parliament. Under the proposal, Serbia would be divided into 27 and Montenegro into 12 electoral districts. Allegedly the government wants to secure stronger ties between federal parliament members (who spent all of 14 days in debates last year) and the electorate and "contribute to promote the proportional election system", although it's clear that the proposal shuts out small parties. Serbia has a total of 174 registered political parties and Montenegro has 38 but some of them have ceased to exist since they were registered, some never existed, others are still being set up. When you take everything into account there are about 10 parties operating.

Under the Federal Government proposal, each of the 27 electoral districts in Serbia would elect three to six MPs (a total of 108) while Montenegro's districts would elect one to seven MPs (totaling 30) in accord with the constitutional principle that one MP represents 65,000 voters. Under the existing law Serbia has nine districts electing 10-20 MPs and Montenegro is one district. That law was adopted in October 1992 under pressure from a rebelling population after a round table discussion between the authorities and opposition. The working group formed at that round table opted for a proportional system.

The 1990 census shows that Serbs accounted for 62% of the population of the FRY, Montenegrins 5%, Albanians 16%. Everyone has forgotten that a Socialist spokesman said then the largest ethnic Albanian parties should be invited to the round table, that Federal Prime Minister Radoje Kontic said the suggestion was constructive. The issue was postponed for the next session and nothing happened. When the existing law was drafted the people who worked on it knew smaller electoral districts had the advantage of the electorate getting to know who they are voting for but chose bigger districts as being more in line with the proportional system.

The opposition insisted on Serbia being either one district or being divided into eight and the Socialists insisted on 30. Serbian Prime Minister at the time Radoman Bozovic suddenly called a meeting of parliament group chiefs and offered the solution of nine districts. The opposition threat of boycotting elections still had some weight then and the opposition agreed to nine districts on condition that the other conditions are specified clearly (mainly regulations on the media). Some concessions were abandoned later.

After the live TV coverage of parliament sessions was abolished and all the big and most local media were put under government control for the benefit of the Socialists (SPS) and the Yugoslav United Left (JUL), the changes in election geometry is the next in a series of revisionist steps.

The Montenegrin opposition voted against the increase in the number of election districts with some opposition MPs saying this is a return to 1992 when the opposition refused to stand in elections. The Montenegrin parliament's inter-party working group for the next elections is due to meet to voice objections and suggestions on the new law.

Opposition parties in Serbia reacted negatively; the Serbian Civic Alliance (GSS) called the whole thing a scandal and DSS leader Vojislav Kostunica said this is "an expression of the insecurity of the current authorities".

Kostunica feels that "the best response to the willful and violent act of the Serbian and Montenegrin Communists should be a united opposition election list" and added that the SPS was pushing the entire opposition into a coalition.

DSS deputy leader Zoran Sami said the changes in the election law could bring the Socialists an absolute majority (see article Stealing the Majority). He recalled that just over a year ago a draft law on local self-rule which was supposed to introduce a single district majority system was withdrawn when the Radicals and two democratic parties said they would stand in elections together.

Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj said the draft law was a heavy blow to the opposition. In a statement to Beta, Seselj accused the Socialists of constantly trying to get back the majority system "which is Milosevic's obsession" since 1992. He said he isn't counting on a coalition with "Draskovic and the SPO" and indicated that Draskovic and Djindjic will quarrel soon and leave space for the SRS to cooperate with the two democratic parties. SRS members attended a recent DSS saint's day celebration.

The SPO reacted confidently to the draft law, obviously relying on assessments by SPO MP Milan Bozic that the proposal allows the Socialists to take votes from everyone. He said the ruling party in Montenegro might even win all the seats in parliament.

The SPO, DS, GSS coalition could now become more attractive to small center block parties. The coalition wants Kostunica to join them, but they're in no hurry to embrace Seselj who is desperate enough to offer the Socialists his services in attacking Governor Avramovic and the Draskovic-Djindjic coalition.

On the other hand, rumors of a union of the entire opposition to topple the regime are still with us.

The new election geometry is actually endangering Kostunica and Seselj the most.

The ethnic Hungarians in the Subotica and Zrenjanin election district and the ethnic Albanians, if they don't boycott the elections, in the Mitorvica, Pec and Vranje election districts could get their quota but the Moslems might not in the Uzice, Kraljevo and Mitrovica districts.

The new draft could make the opposition lose the elections but it could also grow stronger if it gets bigger. JUL obviously has no place as an independent and it will have to stand with the SPS. That means the money spent on air time fighting the Right was wasted. If the SPS does take JUL along it risks losing some voters and maneuvering space. The Communist wings keep repeating that The Left Must Win.

A clash of ideologies (Left and Right) is being construed in this chaotic and confused society even though no one can explain what that means in Serbia today. The belief that links with China, Korea and Mongolia will win back votes lost while the war was being waged are a fantasy.

The question now is what the SPS coalition partner New Democracy (ND) will do if the Socialists don't write it off as too expensive. If it dares, it could market its coalition potential again but JUL intolerance for the ND will make the current ruling coalition difficult.

By reducing the election districts in Serbia, the Socialists have given themselves an advantage since they have an apparatus working in small towns, controlling the economy. They have so much of it they can share with JUL which seems to be going for a third of the seats in parliament and that could mean the authorities are introducing the kind of confusion the opposition has suffered for the past six years into its ranks.

The opposition is saying that SPS and JUL are using blackmail to recruit new members but how that will work at elections no one knows. Opinion polls indicate a possible large voter abstention but who that will affect most is hard to predict. The SPS could make up for that possible damage by resurrecting some of their phantom parties to win votes away from the opposition. But it isn't realistic to expect the larger opposition groups to be forced to move most of their operations to the rest of the country to start strengthening their local boards and attracting more members which seems expensive and impractical to the party leaders. At first glance, the new district borders were drawn by an expert statistician based on the 1993 elections and could raise the score of the SPS. Central Belgrade may have been left to the opposition but the outer rim of the city is Socialist. Sabac and Valjevo have been linked as have Zrenjanin, Senta and Ada, Pec and Prizren, Vranje and parts of Kosovo, Toplica with Kosovska Mitrovica, Leskovac and Pirot.

The Socialists, who could have been frightened by something, are drawing the new districts to secure a victory in federal elections which the opposition simply can't win. If the opposition beats the SPS in Serbia it would have a hard time finding a coalition partner in Montenegro and if it did find a coalition partner in the Chamber of Citizens, the SPS which controls the Serbian parliament could block them in the Chamber of Republics. Unlike other analysts, I believe the seeming clash between the authorities in Serbia and Montenegro is just a pretense. The operation to move the authorities to top federal levels can begin.

Given the current balance of forces, that seems like sights are being set for next year's republican elections and since nothing is happening until then lots of things are being done maybe so no one will get the idea that the authorities can be ousted in elections.