Stealing the Majority

by Zoran Sami( The author is DSS deputy leader and professor of mathematics at Belgrade University.)

Let's try to explain what's behind the new federal election law which the government adopted in late April. The draft law is just one of a number of efforts by the SPS and DPS to cover the disasters of their policies, which would undoubtedly affect elections, with an election victory by placing all other parties in an unequal position. Don't forget that, apart from the election law, all the other conditions for elections, primarily the state of the media, are much worse today than before the elections in 1990, '92 or '93.

Why are the ruling parties proposing this law? The answer is simple: the election system guarantees the SPS in Serbia and DPS in Montenegro a majority of parliament seats with some 30% of the vote for each party in its republic and could even get a two thirds majority in parliament. This isn't just an empty claim and this example illustrates it: look at the four lists below marked A, B, C, D in three typical election districts which elect four MPs each. The number of MPs to elect is realistic because, under the new law, Serbian districts will elect an average four MPs.

Type 1 Type 2 Type 3

list vote in percents number of mandates

A 31 2

B 34 2

C 15 0

D 11 0

A 37 2

B 26 1

C 18 1

D 9 0

A 54 3

B 15 0

C 17 1

D 8 0

Let A be the SPS, and B, C, and D be the opposition or some partial coalition. In type 1 and 2 districts the SPS draws 2-2 with the opposition but in districts type 3 it wins 3-1. Since Serbia can have at least five type 3 districts (and the SPS certainly won't miss out in suiting its needs) the conclusion is clear the SPS-opposition match ends with a 59-49 score or better for the SPS.

But to allay suspicions that the examples are to rigid, let's say we use authentic results from the 1993 elections in parts of the Kragujevac, Belgrade and Leskovac districts.

A parallel example with an identical conclusion in favor of the DPS can be drawn up for Montenegro. Add to that the fact that the results remain the same even if ethnic Albanians turn out since national minority parties do not oppose the ruling party even if they don't support it. So the ruling parties will win a majority and won't need to form a coalition with any other party.

The question now is how the opposition can respond to the challenge. It has to respond since acceptance of an absolute SPS, DPS majority means collective political suicide. Unlike democratic countries where a strong opposition in parliament is an important element in controlling the authorities, here having 49% of seats in parliament is the same as having no seats at all. An example of that is the Serbian parliament where 121 opposition MPs mean nothing.

The answer isn't forming new coalitions even if they are acceptable in political terms. If you join lists B and D you gain nothing against the SPS:

Type 1 Type 2 Type 3

list vote in percents number of mandates

A 31 2

B+D 45 2

C 15 0

A 37 2

B+D 35 1

C 18 1

A 54 3

B+D 23 1

C 17 0

Note that the proposed election system is proportional in name only and that it's effects come close to the single district majority election system. That means the only effective coalition is by a number of opposition parties that can win more votes than the SPS in the largest number of districts. That means a technical coalition primarily by the four largest opposition parties in parliament.

If parties B,C and D form a coalition they could achieve the following results

Type 1 Type 2 Type 3

list vote in percents number of mandates

A 31 1

B+C+D 60 3

A 37 2

B+C+D 53 2

A 54 2

B+C+D 40 2

In that way the technical coalition would beat the SPS 57-51 at least.

A technical coalition is not a political coalition which means it can include parties with various ideologies. It has only one goal: winning an absolute majority in parliament and starting immediate democratic changes in society which includes a new law on the media and a new, more fair election law to pave the way for regular elections. Then parties will be able to stand alone in elections and parliament will finally reflect the will of the electorate.

The conclusion that imposes itself is that the ruling parties, by proposing this law, are showing they want to rule alone.