Covic's Party

Towards the end of the interview which the former mayor MA Nebojsa Covic had given to VREME at the beginning of February, he answered the question of whether his dismissal from the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) also signified the end of his political career with: "I'm still in the game, with the crowd rooting me on, with chances of yet winning a number of games".

Prior to and following this interview, Covic was otherwise presented with a number of offers to exchange the recently lost Socialist Party's dress for a new one, so that his words of "I'm still in the game" were at first mostly interpreted as a hint of a possible change of team colors. The story was shortly launched from Belgrade's political kitchens that the former mayor was allocated the role of founder of a totally new party of a social-democratic orientation. However, this story (depending on the kitchen from which it was launched) had different versions, but along with Nebojsa Covic's name, the most often mentioned co-founders of the new party were the former prime minister Milan Panic, the once youngest Yugoslav Army (JNA) general Vuk Obradovic, Constitutional Court judge Slobodan Vucetic, sociologist Dr. Dusan Janjic... Some versions of this story claimed that the project of constituting a new party had the blessing (and maybe more than that) of Bogoljub Karic himself. Last week Covic personally spoke out again, and in an interview given to Television Trstenik, practically "legalized" rumors on the constitution of a new party. "When I create a new, not to say my own, party which shall, or so I hope, attract wise and moderate heads who shall place Serbia and the Serbs as their primary task, that new party shall be a party of the center, of the social-democratic orientation which shall be accepted by all structures," said (according to the quote published by Vecernje Novosti daily) Nebojsa Covic for TV Trstenik.

Most of those who are connected to the project of launching a social-democratic party, according to the political grapevine, are not prepared to say more at this moment than what the former Belgrade mayor had stated on that subject. It was initially planned for the new party to appear at a later date, yet people who shall most probably hold the top positions amongst the social-democrats assess that the socialists could call elections for the republican assembly and new president of Serbia a lot sooner than is expected, possibly even in September of this year. The new party intends to stand on those elections with an already fairly developed party infrastructure, and with its own presidential candidate.

What VREME has managed to find out about this new party (whose name still hasn't been definitely determined) primarily relates to the party's political positioning. Its founders plan to settle "somewhat left of the center", between SPS and the coalition Zajedno. More precisely, somewhat closer to the coalition Zajedno. Party architects start off with the fact that this vacant political space is not that small and narrow. They call upon all relevant research which confirms that the left of center position here is incomparably more popular than the right of center one, as well as upon the fact that terrain, judging by all facts, is "wider for maneuvers" than in many former socialist societies. Apparently, the people from the coalition Zajedno had previously also had the same idea in mind when they were convincing the former bank governor Dragoslav Avramovic to stand at the head of the list and when they intended to name this coalition the "Workers-Farmers-Democratic" coalition.

According to the words of one of the new party founders, the need for forming a new moderate party with the ambition to present a democratic bridge for a peaceful transition of power from SPS into the hands of those who would be capable of undertaking the serious tasks of economic and political reforms, has existed for a long time. The list of reasons to "finally" commence those activities is longish. "Primarily, we should not forget that Milosevic, with his anti-bureaucratic revolution, had used up an incredible amount of energy for changes and directed the catharsis towards nationalistic grounds instead of towards changes," as one of the future "social-democrats" explains for VREME.

VREME's collocutor further stresses that the appearance of Milan Panic on the political scene of Serbia had for the first time shown that a rather large number of local political bodies are looking for a third, more moderate version However, until now, Milosevic had always managed to impose the "one on one" game to prevent two serious political rivals from joining up against him. The local elections in Serbia and following that, according to the assessment of our collocutor, the "brave performance" of the coalition Zajedno and the students, have totally changed the political atmosphere in Serbia.

On one hand, we have a regime which is collapsing yet is still desperately fighting to defend all that can be defended, and on the other the coalition Zajedno whose appetites are rising and which can be narrowed down to three parties and three leaders (with possible conflicts over leadership amongst them). In the meantime, the political protests have induced a social rebellion which is growing, uncertainties over the outcome have been heightened, many fear that even the danger of a civil war has not been completely exhausted.

On the political field on which "Covic's Social-Democratic party" (draft name) intends to start the game, many have tried to do something until now, yet all previous attempts had mostly resounded upon rather deaf ears. Some of the social-democratic options had been "imputed" by SPS itself, while attempting to control the entire left political field. The new social-democrats see themselves as mostly resembling those who are in power in Poland, which means as transformed and reformed, and not as newly-disguised communists. Anyway, those who have been "newly disguised" usually last a few months, while those who are reformed have set a trend in the entire post-communist world. They are forgiven for their former communist party membership and the Socialist International doors are open to them which these local "newly disguised" socialists can't even get their foot in.

The question - who shall make up the membership of the new party - is answered by VREME's collocutor with a thesis, at least 1.5 million of those who live in FRY were former communist party members. "Many of those people, after all that had occurred here, are finding it more difficult to say to their mirror image each morning - 'red gang" ". We shall be approached, as we have been these days, by many of those wavering SPS members. Until now, they had no place to go to. The coalition Zajedno is too far for them, they were neither received nor invited by anyone, and whenever they had hinted that they were fed up of SPS, were labeled as being 'hard-core communists' ".

A wish to join the new party has for now, apart from certain mostly former politicians and newest SPS "renegades", been expressed by many esteemed economists, directors of certain successful firms, academics... It seems as though there shall be room for both the former and the present Olympic medal bearers, and even certain NBA league stars are mentioned. Of those mentioned by the political grapevine Nebojsa Covic is a "definite". Milan Panic has been informed of the whole project but is not seen as a presidential candidate of this party in formation, as could be heard. Similar things could be said about Bogoljub Karic. Even though he is very close to the social-democratic option and idea, the Constitutional Court of Serbia's judge Slobodan Vucetic shall most probably not leave his present position in order to dedicate his time to politics.

Much of all this shall be a lot clearer when all the preparatory activities on the formation of this new party are completed these days. Otherwise, the social-democrats are planning to play for long-term and their ambition is to, already at the first upcoming elections, attain at least some ten percent of the electoral body. Their calculations for the presidential elections are a lot more "precise" and specific. They claim the socialist candidate (can't be Milosevic), has no chance of winning in the first round and due to this party's "lackluster and nondescript" candidate, even winning in the second round seems highly improbable. The possible coalition Zajedno candidate (who shall not be easy to find), would also find it difficult to win the elections during the first round. The future social-democrats see in that, purely mathematically, a chance for the left-center candidate. Especially if they were to come to some agreement with the coalition Zajedno on a joint candidate for the second round.

As far as coalition potentials of the new party go, according to the words of our collocutor, those "significant" are: "Full cooperation with all existing social-democratic groups in Serbia, Vojvodina and Kosovo. Close relations with Zajedno, correct ones with Kostunica. The New Democracy party yet needs to be qualified and that not due to its program, but owing to what this party has done, or failed to do in the recent period."

That would mostly be all that can be said on that subject at this moment, a few weeks prior to its official promotion - how those who are designing the new social-democratic party see themselves and others from their environment. Naturally, the far more difficult part of the task yet awaits them, along with the questions - how shall the new party look in the eyes of the others. The social-democrats shall have to prove that they are not a "court" but rather a real opposition party, that they are not recycled products of the already notorious political practice but a modern political movement, that they are the real ones rather than "newly disguised", i.e. to persuade others in a convincing manner that they are not merely a group of political "leftovers", but fabric which can be made into a new and very decent suit. On their side is the rather vacant political field. Against them is the power of tradition personified primarily in the short duration of all liberal projects in these parts. The new party's capabilities to survive shall to a large measure depend on the capabilities of their top officials to endure all the new and old secret files which the regime shall try to use against them, in case they assess that they are confronted with a serious rival. The fact that certain municipal SPS organizations have openly supported Covic at the moment when he was kicked out of the party, and that many SPS MP groups have in the last few days been turning en masse into a group of dissatisfied citizens, leads us to the conclusion that secret files are shortly to be opened. Against some of the new party leaders one part of tradition - which states that in Serbia until now, hardly any of those who had politically fallen at a certain time had managed to rise again - shall most probably "work" against them. The Western political philosophy simply does not apply here which says that for "one man it is not important how many times he has fallen, but how many times he had managed to get back on his feet and to continue fighting". Judging by all accounts, Nebojsa Covic reckons that his recent fall is not regarded as a knockout but a knockdown which can be endured on one's feet. Along with that, he seems to be convinced that the umpire had counted the minutes unjustifiably and far too quickly.