Bulldozer Diplomacy

U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrook said on Wednesday morning that he had arranged the first face-to-face meeting between Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and the leader of Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, Ibrahim Rugova. The meeting is set for May 15, and it will go forward without any preconditions, so that a dialogue on resolving the Kosovo issue can get started, Holbrook added.

The U.S. envoy went on to say that a series of Serb-Albanian talks would follow the meeting. He explained that the talks would take place in Belgrade and Pristina on a weekly basis. He commended Milosevic's "readiness to take personal responsibility in the quest to find a solution to the problem". The solution, as Holbrook said, "must guarantee civil and human rights for everyone, and ensure progress and equality for all those who live in Kosovo". He said that all Kosovo's inhabitants are entitled to live in their homes peacefully, without fear of persecution".

During a brief press conference, Holbrook specified that "officials who are not from this region" would not attend talks between Milosevic and Rugova. His five-day mission reaffirmed his bulldozer-fashioned diplomacy and its ability to get things going. One must admit that the Kosovo peace talks looked dead and buried only a day before Holbrook’s arrival. It was apparent that Milosevic had developed a dislike for Robert Gelbard, Bill Clinton's special envoy in the former Yugoslavia. Milosevic blatantly refused to see Gelbard during his last visit to Belgrade, and the Contact group came up with a half-hearted threat to impose fresh sanctions against Serbia. The aggravated situation on the ground radicalized both sides of the conflict to the extent that peace talks looked further away than ever.

Holbrook, however, started his shuttle trips from Belgrade to Pristina and back. He even took a turn to the Albanian capital Tirana. He persuaded Milosevic and Rugova to meet face-to-face, and restored Gelbard's position with Milosevic. Asked to comment on Milosevic's personal dislike for Gelbard, a ranking U.S. official said the problem had been resolved successfully.

How did Holbrook achieve all this? Diplomatic sources close to the Vreme weekly say that he arrived once again with a stick that made Milosevic think twice. The stick included Bill Clinton's presidential decree on imposing fresh sanctions against Serbia, much tougher than those brought by the Contact Group. The document included a long list of officials who couldn't travel abroad in case Milosevic decided to be uncooperative and, more importantly, it specified that the lion's share of Yugoslavia's foreign-based property would be frozen if he remained adamant. "Milosevic was just about the only person who wasn't on the list", a source close to Vreme said. Last but not least, the Yugoslav president was told that the European Union would adopt the sanctions automatically and that all the organization's members, including "Serbia's friends" such as Greece, Italy and France, would have to comply with the measures. Having been given an offer he couldn't refuse, Milosevic agreed to talk to Rugova personally and thus end a comedy which has been going on in Pristina on a weekly basis.

Breaking Rugova down was somewhat more difficult. However, he too had no choice but to accept the given terms, bearing in mind that his party has split into two and that he’s lost much of his credibility among Kosovo's ethnic Albanians. In return, he was promised that the U.S. government would lend him strong support and put an end to financial and political support to the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) from foreign-based ethnic Albanians. Holbrook also told the Albanian government in Tirana what steps it should take to stop the contraband of weapons into Kosovo and regain control in the country's north. A hundred foreign instructors will arrive in Tirana soon to train Albanian military police in how to deal with the problem, and the Albanian government was also given substantial loans by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), probably to be as cooperative as required to resolve the Kosovo issue.

It remains to be seen whether Milosevic and Rugova will start a genuine relationship after Holbrook’s mediation, or keep pretending they live on different planets.  No one has any illusions that a breakthrough will be made on Friday, the first day of the talks. "Rugova said several times he would insist on Kosovo's independence in talks with Milosevic, and the Yugoslav president will certainly tell him that Kosovo is a part of Serbia", a ranking U.S. official told Vreme after Holbrook’s mission. "We have no guarantee that the situation on the ground will change. In fact, we expect a short-term aggravation as a result of reactions by those who feel that they can achieve their objective by force only. However, the crucial matter is Milosevic's promise to cooperate in the quest for a peaceful solution. It will also go down in history that the U.S. compelled Milosevic and Rugova to meet when no one else could", the U.S. diplomat said.

He said the U.S. would keep persuading Milosevic to accept former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzales as a mediator in the Kosovo conflict and allow a permanent CSCE mission in Yugoslavia.

It is quite obvious that apart from Holbrook and the U.S. administration, Milosevic too benefited from the mission. He probably averted a ban on all investments in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (a formal decision by the Contact Group is expected at its next session), he definitely averted fresh, tougher sanctions and he has become a factor of "peace and stability in the Balkans once again". In return, he has given nothing except his world that he wouldn't obstruct a dialogue on the Kosovo conflict. The fact that the "people's will" shown at a recent referendum no longer counts will bother no one, except those who still believe they can compete with Milosevic in nationalism. The Yugoslav president has already pushed Holbrook’s mediating role under the sofa; the state-controlled media have announced his upcoming talks with Rugova without mentioning either Holbrook or Gelbard. The state television also "skipped" coverage of their latest meeting with Milosevic, which started on Tuesday evening and finished the next morning.
However, Milosevic's joy will be short-lived. Kosovo will remain a stone hanging on Serbia's neck, and the price of Serbia's control in the province keeps growing (in human lives) on a daily basis. Rugova, on the other hand is between a rock and a hard place, between the UCK and the Belgrade government's bullying attitude. It's an all-or-nothing game; Rugova will either get out of the tight spot he is in, which would shut out all those questioning his credibility, or lose everything and step down as the symbolic head of Kosovo's unrecognized state.

One must be very cautious in assessing the short-term effects of Holbrook’s mission, but it is certain that a positive step has been made in the long run. Only a few days ago, Serbia and Kosovo looked like a train heading for an abyss, with its crew adding more coal to the fire rather than trying to stop it. Holbrook has pulled the safety break, but the train is still running at a perilous speed. Even if it is too late, Milosevic and Rugova should do their best to grind the train to a halt for they won't get another chance.