Big Brother is Watching You

"To all those individuals who still continue to be at liberty, I will repeat: the net is tightening," NATO General Secretary George Robertson announced several hours after the SFOR made an arrest in Pale on April 3 of the former high official of the Bosnian Serbs, Momcilo Krajisnik, and took him in his pajamas and all - not even knowing that he is under indictment - in the direction of the prison in the Hague.

The significance of Krajisnik's arrest should be looked for in statements like this.  Even though as President of the Parliament of Republika Srpska he did not command any operations in Bosnia, he has been accused of everything that is at the disposal of the Hague Tribunal: genocide, crimes against humanity, serious breaches of the Geneva Convention, including murder, cleansing and complicity in genocide, deportation and inhuman behavior.  If he were sentenced, he would spend the rest of his life behind bars.
"KNOWN SITUATION":  The indictment of Krajisnik is identical with the one being held against Karadzic, even though Karadzic was President and therefore the head of executive authority, and simply because of that held a position in the chain of command over military operations, which represents a legitimate basis for an indictment. 

rajisnik's political responsibility is not being questions, but it would be difficult to claim that political responsibility is a category in law on the basis of which a proper trial could be carried out, with full reliance on actual evidence.  According to Yugoslav specialists in military law, this is not likely to inhibit a trial in the Hague.  It is said that this Tribunal had long ceased to base its work on concrete evidence and had introduced the practice of the so called "known situation" that includes political decisions and newspaper clippings.
WHY HIM:  Why did the choice fall on Krajisnik?  One reason is that it is considerably more difficult to get at the main culprits in the war crimes committed in Bosnia, i.e. Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic.  Open indictments were raised against them in the Hague five years ago, while the indictment against Krajisnik was raised in a hurry, in February of this year and in secret.  Mladic has been living in Belgrade for some time already and is not accessible to NATO soldiers there.  There is considerable mystery surrounding Karadzic's whereabouts.

Mirko Savoric, Vice-President of Republika Srpska, stated for the Reuters agency on April 1 that he did not see Karadzic for three years and that he thinks that "a very, very small number of people" know where he is.  He also added that "information exists" suggesting that Karadzic is in neighboring Yugoslavia.  Reliable VREME sources also claim that Karadzic has not been in Bosnia for some time already.

Thus far international forces in B&H and western politicians indicated that it is very difficult to arrest Karadzic because his security is top notch and a western soldier might get killed in the attempt to make the arrest.  It is true that by contrast with Krajisnik, Karadzic has very significant security personnel around him.  There was an ongoing polemic in Republika Srpska whether his body-guards are paid from the republican budget.  However, military experts indicate that security, however serious it might be, could never present a serious barrier to American marines or the British SAS, if they were to really decide to arrest him.  One explanation we got sounds like this: "they merely spray them with gas, send them into deep sleep, take Karadzic, and that's an end to that."

While General Mladic is not being mentioned in recent statements made in the west, Kardzic is being called out by the Head Prosecutor of the Hague Tribuna, Karla del Ponte.  During her recent visit to Slovenia she promised that Karadzic will be arrested, and stated that Krajisnik and Karadzic ought to be tried together.  Richard Holbrooke, American Ambassador to the UN, called on Karadzic to hand himself over.

WHO'S NEXT:  Who else should feel unsafe and uncomfortable?

The Defense Ministry of Republika Srpska issued an announcement that the Defense Minister Manojlo Milovanovic will not go on his planned visit to Burxelles and will not leave the country for a certain time "out of security reasons."  Dragan Cavic, an official of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), stated that no one who was MP while Krajisnik was President of the Parliament of Republika Srpska has reason to feel safe.

It is interesting that immediately following Krajisnik's arrest, rumors began to circulate around Republika Srpska that it is quite possible that a secret indictment has been raised against Biljana Plavsic, despite her former cooperative behavior toward the West.  Krajisnik himself probably thought that he is safe from the Hague because he took part in the Dayton Agreement, even though the Agreement itself was signed by Slobodan Milosevic on behalf of all Serbs.

Various offices of the Yugoslav President reacted passionately to Krajisnik's arrest, despite the fact that Milosevic never really got along that well with Krajisnik.  The Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned "a cowardly arrest" and "a senseless and shameful act by the SFOR which is headed by NATO" and it represents "a direct attack on the Dayton-Paris Agreement."  The Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned "behavior of occupiers" while the JUL Directorate used the expression "occupational authorities."  The Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned "genocide being conducted over the Serbian people," while JUL used the expression "hunting expeditions against the Serbs."  The JUL Directorate threatened to "alarm all freedom loving organizations in this world."

It is not very likely that the fate of Krajisnik himself caused such bitterness.  In response to the question why is it that Krajisnik was arrested just now, Moscow's Izvestia daily wrote that this is the beginning of the operation against Milosevic, because Krajisnik certainly has information which can prove Milosevic's guilt, and he has no reason to conceal that information in the Hague.  However, those who know Krajisnik, believe that it is highly unlikely that he will cooperate with the Tribunal, regardless of what his personal opinion of Milosevic might be.  The Yugoslav President himself is well outside the reach of the NATO forces entrusted with his arrest.

SOLD OUT AND BETRAYED:  And finally, how will Krajisnik's arrest influence the political scene in B&H?

The citizens of Republika Srpska did not get too excited over Krajisnik's fate.  In Bijeljina, for instance, the Radicals dealt out pamphlets and held press conferences, but did not cause much interest with their demand that the SDS boycott the election, because the international community wants to intimidate the citizens of Republika Srpska with this arrest and "to force them to renege on their convictions." High Representative of the International Community Wolfgang Petrich stated that "unfriendly actions and physical attacks were not forthcoming."  The SDS itself called on citizens to respond peacefully to the arrest, while Biljana Plavsic called on them to vote in the election.  The protests in Republika Srpska are mostly generated by the sense that the arrest is directed against Serbs, with demands being made for equal treatment for Croats and Bosnians.
The majority mostly agrees that the international community wanted to send a clear message to voters leading into the local elections on April 8, that the same thing could happen to them if they decide to vote for nationalist leaders.  And even though the office fo the High Representative of the International Community Wolfgang Petrich claims that the arrest is not related in any way with the election, George Robertson called on voters to turn their backs on the failed policies of ethnic hatred and to vote for the future.
There are suggestions that an arrest before the election could partially homogenize the electorate, and that 25 percent of undecided voters might give their support to the SDS.  However, since the High Representative must acknowledge the results of every election, few surprises can be expected.

Mr. No

Momcilo Krajisnik, age 55, was born in Zabrdje (now part of the Federation), near Sarajevo.  These days he is being described as "conservative and religious" by the western media, and if fact not only was he never a member of the Communist Party, but at the time when only grannies went to church in Bosnia, he was the president of a church community.  Those who know him only by his skill say that this quality helped him to become the director of one of the richest companies in the B&H, Energoivnest, where parts for Russian nuclear reactors were being manufactured.  In the eighties he went to jail for 9 months for attempting to hinder the building of Radovan Karadzic's house on Pale.  He exploited this for political reasons, stating that he had been persecuted because he was a Serb.

He was one of the founders of the Serbian Democratic Party and after the first multi-party elections in 1990, he became president of the House of the Republics in the B&H.  He submitted his resignation after calling a referendum on Bosnian independence, with all Serb MP's following his example in resigning.  From 1992 to 1995 he was president of the People's Parliament of Republika Srpska.  In 1996 he became a member of the three-member Presidium of B&H, together with the Muslim Alija Izetbegovic and the Croat Kresimir Zubak.

In the 1998 election to the B&H Presidum, he was defeated by the far more moderate Zivko Radisic.  After this he partially withdrew from political life, even though he still remained a member of the select leadership of the SDS.  He does not appear to have been well liked within his party either, especially because of his personal wealth.
Radovan Karadzic, President of the SDS and later President of Republika Srpska, saw a real Serb host in Krajisnik.  He believed him and accepted his opinions because he was tough, persistent and canny - all in all, he was a stronger personality than Karadzic himself.

In the West he has been called "Mr. No" because of his unwillingness to compromise during the war in B&H from 1992 to 1995.  Eyewitnesses remember his poker face while he negotiated for hours with Goutierez and Vance on Owen's Plan for Bosnia, without having spoke a word of English.  Then Karadzic would take him for a short walk around Bruxelles, told him what was talked about, only to return to the negotiations to say "no."

He had very bad relations with Slobodan Milosevic (even worse than with Biljana Plavsic) for more than one reason.  When Milosevic barely convinced Karadzic in Athens to sign the Vance-Owen Plan, Krajisnik managed to slip in a clause requiring that the Parliament of Republika Srpska must also vote on it.  Of course, Krajisnik managed to have the plan thrown out by the Parliament, making Milosevic look bad in all this, along with the Greek Prime Minister Konstantin Mitsotakis (both of them were present when the Parliament of Republika Srpska met).

Krajisnik and Milosevic also disagreed on the issue of Sarajevo.  For instance, in November of 1994 he said: "The perspective of Sarajevo is such that in the future it will be a unified Serb city, Serb in its entirety.  Muslims will have to seek their own capital outside of Sarajevo.  This is merely the natural flow of events."  Milosevic told him to give up idle talk on Sarajevo, and since Krajisnik did not listen, he gave him over to the Muslims in Dayton, stating that they deserve him.  That is why Krajisnik headed the action for all Serbs to leave Sarajevo once it had been handed over to the Muslims.

After three-week long negotiations on peace in Bosnia, on November 21, 1995, in Sarajevo the Presidents of Croatia, B&H and Serbia and international mediators signed the Peace Agreement for Bosnia.  Already by November 23, President of Parliament of Republika Srpska and a member of the three-member Presidium of the B&H, Momcilo Krajisnik stated that the Bosnian Serbs are unhappy.  Krajisnik showed up in Dayton because Karadzic had already been indicted for war crimes at that time.  But Milosevic always kept Krajisnik far away from any serious negotiations.  However, the relationship between Milosevic and Karadzic was made official by the signing of the Agreement on Special Parallel Relations Between the FRY and Republika Srpska.  At the time of his arrest, Karjisnik was the President of the Coordinating Body for Relations between Republika Srspka and the FRY.