What's In Store For Milosevic After His Mandate Ends

Using chess terminology, fifteen months before his mandate is due to expire (in July 2001), FR Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is ever more looking like a king who has reached the ultimate square on the chess board and is unable to change into any other piece.  The constitutions of Serbia and FR Yugoslavia do not permit him to backtrack - in Serbia he used up long ago the two mandates allowed to him by the Serbian Constitution, while on the federal level he will soon begin to use up the last year of his final presidential mandate.  Therefore, there is no way back for him, but his love of leadership and the conviction among the Socialists that their president has "nine lives," topped by the Hague indictments, simply do not allow "the king" Milosevic to vacate the chessboard with relative ease.  Nor is it simple for him to find a political move which would resemble "a stalemate position" in any way.  He is in a position that Ph.D. Predrag Simovic recently described as that of "an undesirable, but unavoidable partner" for the international community.

According to theory, Slobodan Milosevic could, for instance, become Federal Prime Minister.  This position offers even more power than his present position of President of Yugoslavia, which is constitutionally fairly weak, and is one of the reasons why Milosevic had to take a lot of personal power with him when he abandoned the position of President of Serbia in order to take up his present position of President of Yugoslavia.  Thus it occurred that by contrast with Zoran Lilic, Milosevic's predecessor in the position of Yugoslav President, who mostly sent telegrams from his office, Milosevic only came to receive telegrams in the selfsame office.  Especially on occasions when, in his well rehearsed manner, it was necessary to transmute failures into victories.  However, his transfer to the position of Federal Prime Minister is not possible without the consent of Montenegro, or at least without dramatic political changes in that Republic.  That is why this possibility does not appear very realistic at the present.  At the same time, Milosevic in the position of Federal Prime Minister would mean the surest guarantee that this country would never be accepted into the international community.

ALL THE POWER TO THEM:  Suspicious that Milosevic is forging something were expressed last week by Ph.D. Stevan Lilic, Vice-President of Coalition DAN, regarding a poll that was conducted in the Council of the Republics of the Federal Parliament on the occasion of the Proposal for the Election of Members of Parliament.  Lilic, who is also a professor of administrative law, expressed suspicions that the proposed law could constitute a parliamentary makeup which could block the operations of the federal government, which could be used as a reason for adopting a new Serbian Constitution.  "When a new Serbian Constitution is adopted, Slobodan Milosevic's parking meter will go back to the starting point on each new mandate," Ph.D. Steval Lilic noted.

Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic went even further in his predictions at last week's press conference in Podgorica.  He claimed that it appears that Slobodan Milosevic is wishing for an independent Serbia in order to be able to hold onto his position of President.  Again in chess language terms, he accused Milosevic of wanting to break up all the pieces and to begin the chess game from scratch on an admittedly narrowed chessboard - one that excludes Montenegro.  "In order to stay at the top of the Yugoslav leadership, Milosevic has only two options.  To overthrow the legal and legitimate government in Montenegro and to appoint those loyal to him in its place, after which he would change the FRY Constitution and would ensure a presidential mandate for himself; or, he could go back to the position of President of a newly independent Serbia," Djukanovic noted.  On the same occasion, the Montenegrin President noted that Milosevic is nervously preparing the ground for the second option, because the first option is evidently outside his reach.  "If the Serbian people accept this, all the power to them.  Under such conditions we will be ready for the closest and best possible relations with Seriba," stated Djukanovic at the end of his press conference.

Many people in the Montenegrin President's camp are expressing similar opinions these days that before his mandate is up, Milosevic will try to play out some new game.  In this they are frequently quoting an article by Ph.D. Vladan Kutlesic, Vice-President of Federal Government, which he wrote in the fall of last year for the state newspaper, Politika daily, that all those who think that the separation of Montenegro from the FRY would automatically imply an end to Yugoslavia are greatly mistaken.  Later, Milosevic himself invoked a state from Timok to Drina at the recent SPS Congress and indirectly suggested that he has a new draft for new borders which would run, this time, longitudinally.
President of the Democratic Party, Zoran Djindjic claimed recently in a newspaper interview that Milosevic's objective is to remain president for life, probably of some new country.  According to Djindjic, such a new country would probably exclude Montenegro, or the better part of that Republic.  "That is why I think that he will create a crisis which will at first appear like his intention to bring back Montenegro under rule, whereas in fact the consequence of this will be to drive Montenegro away," Djindjic stated.

WHICH BALL TO CATCH:  Whatever his plans are, counting the months to the end of his mandate, Milosevic is facing a position which is considerably worse than the one from July 1997, when he took possession of Tito's residence and of the late Martial 's bullet-proof Mercedes Benz limousine, and took position at the head of the FRY.  At that time Miliosevic was still harboring hopes that he would manage to win over Djukanovic, and through him the whole of Montenegro, in his intention of changing the Federal Constitution (especially articles 97 and 98) and in forcing the legislature into accepting direct election of the President of the FRY by voters, instead of in parliament.  In the summer of 1997, thanks to an opposition which never got used to his machinations, Milosevic managed to get back on his feet quite firmly after the three-month long protests and the acknowledgment of the local elections in Serbia.  At that time, it appeared that he is still powerful enough to be able to appoint his people to various positions, to fire them or to reinstate them.  Today he is forced into worrying intensely about his own position.  In the past he managed to rule over both Serbia and Montenegro as the President of Serbia.  When he took the position of President of the FRY, his power over Montenegro suddenly disappeared.  In the summer of 1997, the entire international community was wishing to see him at the head of the FRY as the signatory and the guarantor of the Dayton Agreement.  In a sense the Dayton Agreement represented a reserve position for him in the event that he and his party lost the elections.  In the meantime - and this is the greatest change that took place - the international community is wishing to see him in the Hague.

Slobodan Antonic, sociologist and Assistant at the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad, describes Milosevic's present position as that of a juggler who is juggling with an ever increasing number of balls and is having increasing difficulty in controlling all of them.  According to Antonic, stabilization of the government is only possible through constitutional changes, and these are very difficult to carry through at the present time.  When in 1992 the so-called Zabljak Constitution was being drafted, Milosevic sat in the chair of the President of Serbia, which offered the greatest power in the state;  relations with Montenegro were excellent, the Socialists were winning the elections with ease and the opposition parties were willing partners.  All of that is the past now.  Today Milosevic is not likely to win fair and democratic elections on any level, and his only ally is Seselj.  Slobodan Antonic thinks that in this situation, Milosevic's only remaining option is to attempt to change the Serbian Constitution.  Something like that could be a chance for the opposition to try to impose a solution to a peaceful transition.  Given the psychological makeup of the current President of FR Yugoslavia, given his present family situation and the Hague indictment, it is more than unrealistic to expect that he will call an election, that he will lose that election and will remove himself peacefully from the political scene.

Antonic otherwise believes that the chances of Serbia going though a peaceful and normal transition are smaller than 40 percent.  That is why Milosevic and his people must be offered some type of deal and a way out in order for them to leave power peacefully.  Experience indicates that a peaceful and democratic transition is always based on an agreement between ruling classes regarding a peaceful handing over of power - in other words, a violent change of the regime can never be a guarantee for democracy.  Before he left power, Pinochet got a protected status of a senator in Chile, which permitted for the change of power to take place fairly painlessly.  In Poland, even before the Berlin Wall came down, change came in elections for one of the houses of the Polish parliament at the time.  The communists (i.e. the PURP) retained temporary control over the other house of parliament, until they handed over power.

"Avoidance of civil war presumes a deal being made with the regime and that is why the idea put forth recently by Dragoslav Avramovic appears to me fairly constructive.  But in order to accept any kind of deal, Milosevic must first become aware of the fact that he must accept something of the sort.  However, it does not appear to me that Milosevic feels at the present time that the regime is in any kind of profound crisis.  Judging by all accounts, he appears to be watching the Radio Television of Serbia state news  methodically and believes everything he hears there.  Why, in any case, should he believe that the time has come for him to withdraw from power?  He is certainly not likely to do so just because the opposition is issuing statements on a daily basis," Slobodan Antonic states.

TANGO FOR TWO:  The possibility that Milosevic might once again brink back the parking meter to the starting position and might secure for himself another presidential mandate through a change in one of the constitutions is mostly a matter of theoretical speculation, according to Ph.D. Vladimir Goati of Belgrade's Institute of Social Science. According to Ph.D. Goati, the chances of some fictional election taking place in which Montenegro does not wish to participate, in order to elect some fictional parliament which would in turn vote in constitutional changes on God knows what basis, are unrealistic at best.  Ph. Goati also adds that something of the sort would look like "a tango for one", because official Podgorica is evidently unwilling to take part in such a "dance."  A mandate which is one in such a way would boil down to "sticking masking tape over masking tape," and such patching rarely hold for too long.  It is far more logical for Slobodan Milosevic to remain President of the SPS after his mandate as FRY President expires, with that party probably retaining the status of the single most powerful party in Serbia.  As the party chief, Milosevic would retain considerable power in pulling the strings behind the scene, which could last indefinitely.

"Personally, I'm against the policy of to threats made by the regime with threats that the opposition could make.  That certainly is not a good strategy for peaceful changes.  A great number of people who are part of the regime did not take part in the divvying up of the loot and that is why an effort must be made to avoid those wide-ranging threats against all those in the government and those associated with it.  Greater wisdom is necessary, the language of threats must be dropped and the bidding in the game should be brought to a rational level.  We could learn a few things from the experience of the South African Republic, where a committee for peace was formed as a kind of bypass.  Someone already mentioned that the regime needs to be offered 'silk stairs' for leaving power.  Certainly, silk stairs are always a far better solution than the traditional 'silken thread' given by the Ottomans as an order to commit suicide or to be beheaded," states Ph.D. Vladimir Goati for VREME.

The man who originated the idea of the "silk stairs" is Ph.D. Dragoslav Avramovic, former Governor of the Yugoslav National Bank.  He is presently on a trip through Europe and the USA where he will most likely attempt to interest certain politicians in such a "project."  In letters which he sent to different places in the world prior to going on his trip, Ph.D. Avramovic mentioned that there might also be work for psychologists with regard to the way Milosevic's leaving power is to be approached.  Comments to his ideas coming from the worlds capitals' mostly reflect anger, with a good part of the opposition here claiming that all that is fairly naïve and simply cannot be taken into consideration.  One Greek weekly magazine recently mentioned three different possibilities for Miosevic to leave power, which supposedly presume cooperation between Greece and Russia.  Here and there papers publish news of the "Montenegrin attempt" at trying to convince the Hague leadership from excluding from their indictments politicians who are believed to have general support from the people, because their arrest could result in riots.  By putting the FRY President on the Hague Tribunal list of indictments, the international community has denied itself any sort of influence over Belgrade, which now appears to be a problem.  Since they still did not invent the "lex specialis" in the Hague, all that remains are mere guesses at whether certain deals are possible in secret lagoons.  For instance, several years ago, Biljana Plavsic, who was President of Republika Srpska at the time, claimed in an interview with a Japanese magazine that Madeleine Albright had offered to go to Pale and to attempt to convince Radovan Karadzic that he should disappear somewhere from Republika Srpska.  In return for this, supposedly the American offered him a peaceful life, far away from the Hague.  According to Biljana Plavsic, Karadzic refused such an offer.   According to Madeleine Albright, no such offer had ever been made.  At the end of 1998, in a Washington Post interview, Milosevic stated that "Karadzic had a deal with Holbrooke that he will withdraw from public life," which he later made good on.

According to Sociologist Slobodan Antonic, the western approach to our political crisis considerably reduces the possibilities for a peaceful transition.  There is considerable mannerism and bureaucratic stodginess in it.  "Authoritarian regimes leave the scene either when moderates in the political elite make pacts with the opposition in which they are guaranteed protection in the transition of power, or when the members of the political elite decide on a coup d'etat.  With the western approach, in which all members of the ruling elite are being grouped on one side under various indictments, simply removes all possibility that any of them could ever separate from Milosevic, even physically.  The fact that many of them who are close to power are unable to leave the country certainly does not support a peaceful transition.  Along with all those black lists and developed mechanisms of internal control, it is very difficult to expect that people will appear in the political elite who will be ready to make a sufficient brake within the power structures themselves, which would simplify the process of closing a deal with the regime," states Slbodan Antonic.

The FRY President himself only once spoke about his future plans in a December interview given to the Washington Post.  When asked whether his mandate expires in year 2001, he answered: "Yes, I have been elected in 1997 and my mandate expires in 2001."  Then the journalists asked for further explanation of the fact that the President of Yugoslavia can only hold one mandate in a lifetime, to which Milosevic answered: "Yes, that is so according to the Constitution."  When the journalists observed that Milosevic is still a young man and when he asked whether he intends to change the Constitution in order to make another mandate available to himself, the FRY President stated even more specifically at the time: "I have no intention of doing so."

The fact that Miosevic once said that he will never allow the international community to get involved in Kosovo and the President's response that "Of course, that is our internal problem" point to the fact that the reading and interpretation of Milosevic's answers and observations sometimes requires unique skill and pure juggling.  And a certain amount of reservation.  It is highly unlikely that once his mandate is up, he will be seen walking his grandson Marko through the amusement park Bambiland in Pozarevac which has been built by his son, Marko Milosevic.