Vuk Under Fire

Is Vuk Draskovic being chased by a high-speed train?  After the assassination attempt against Vuk Draskovic in Budva on June 15, on the Montenegrin seaside, it appears that there is not doubt about the fact that thrust of the regime's campaign is directed against the Serbian Renewal Movement.  Such an assumption is supported by an unbroken string of incidents that began on October 3 of last year when a dump truck suddenly veered from its lane on the Lazarevac Highway and hit the passenger car carrying SPO Leader Vuk Draskovic, injuring him and instantly killing the high SPO official Veselin Boskovic, along with three other SPO officials.

Following this incident, Draskovic vowed at the funeral of his colleagues and before all SPO supporters that the victims will be revenged and that the murderers will be brought to justice.  A Serbian Renewal Movement team of experts began its own investigation, parallel with the one conducted by the authorities, and in spite of persistent pressure were unable to force the authorities into disclosing the identity of individual under whose name the dump truck used in committing the quadruple homicide is registered.  The excise and duty official who ceased the dump truck at a border checkpoint and who handed it over to the Yugoslav State Security Service, ended up dying in a mysterious traffic accident.  The entire investigation was initially carried out by the District Court of Lazarevac as a careless road accident, and later, on the basis of another related lawsuit was cynically "closed" by the public prosecutor.  Simultaneously, a former member of the State Security Service who found employment with the Belgrade Municipal Construction Directorate (headed by the late Veselin Boskovic) after being fired from government service, was arrested and imprisoned in a highly irregular court procedure.  Since then his wife has been battling the authorities unsuccessfully for the release of her husband.

SHUTTING DOWN, STARVING OFF:  Belgrade's popular television station, Studio B, which was controlled by the SPO, aggressively reported on the Lazarevac Highway incident and was fined on multiple occasions on the basis of testimony given by a police general who was at the scene of the crime in Lazarevac shortly after the multiple homicide.  Studio B equipment located in Belgrade and Mladenovac was appropriated by the authorities, with one security guard having suffered injuries to the skull from the butt of a handgun.  Studio B programs were systematically scrambled by the authorities.  The SPO held Municipal Government of Belgrade was "starved" for months - the three percent municipal sales tax Belgrade was blocked by the Serbian Government, the price of municipal services has been frozen by that same government with the result that a city with a population of over two million has been lapsing into a state of instability.

Revolted by all these developments, members of the Serbian Renewal Movement issued a call on two occasions in May, once at the SPO annual meeting on Ravna Gora and later at a meeting in Belgrade, for a general rebellion.  In May, the police entered the offices of Studio B Television and under police protection the Serbian Government instituted its own management over Studio B, while the former management of that television station was left out on the street.  As a gesture of protest, the former Studio B management tried "transmitting" their news programs from the balcony of the Belgrade Municipal Government building.  The nightly meetings in the Center of Belgrade began because of this, but the police brutally dispersed demonstrators on two occasions with protests losing breath within a week's time.  At that point Draskovic urgently flew to Moscow with Zoran Djindjic, President of the Democratic Party, and Vojislav Kostunica, President of the Democratic Party of Serbia, in order to try to get the mediation of the Russian Government in influencing Slobodan Milosevic's regime to offer minimal conditions for a fair election, and perhaps also in order to take a breather until the situation clear up.

HUNTINGS SEASON ON DRASKOVIC OPENED:  Upon Draskovic's return from Moscow, the Serbian Police arrested the entire security team of the President of the Serbian Renewal Movement at the International Airport in Surcin.  The entire team was immediately sent to prison for expired hand gun licenses.  The Roman daily Republika concluded that the arrest and imprisonment of Draskovic's entire team of body guards indicates that "Milosevic declared the hunting season on Draskovic to be open."  Be that as it may, Draskovic once again withdrew to the safety of Montenegro.

At the beginning of June the Serbian Government exploited a peculiar strike by Belgrade's private bus owners demanding a price hike for their municipal busing services in order to take over control over Belgrade's Municipal Transit Authority (GSP), and with the use of the Yugoslav Army and Police buses, they managed to normalize the municipal transit situation in Belgrade.  What the means used to convince private bus owners that they should go back to work at the old price is not entirely clear.  After the Municipal Transit Authority, Belgrade's Hydro Company entered a state of crisis, with the Hydro workers protesting in front of Belgrade's Municipal Government by turning their hoses, which they otherwise use to clean the city streets with, on the government building itself.  This gesture signified preparations for the Serbian regime's take-over of Belgrade Hydro.  The opposition is voicing predictions that it is merely a matter of days before Belgrade is entirely taken over by Milosevic's regime.  After all these serious blows, the SPO is not offering any significant resistance and is turning its back on a sleuth of proposals by other opposition parties for increasing resistance.

After the Pozarevac affair of the untouchable friends of the Yugoslav President's son vs. members of the student Movement Otpor, it is clear that the regime is using the police in order to physically prohibit or simply to impede opposition protest meetings, or just to limit the physical movement of opposition supporters.  After the murder of the President of the Executive Council of Vojvodina, Bosko Perosevic, an attempt is made to link his murdered (otherwise his long time next-door-neighbor and elementary school fellow student) with Otpor, which is used as a pretext for beginning an intensive campaign against members of Otpor all across Serbia.  An announcement is issued about the adoption of an anti-terrorist law.  Given the fact that propaganda and police activities are not being directed against the wide spread problem of crime within Serbia which threatens both the state and its people, but are being directed against the opposition, it has become general opinion that this law serves as the regime's pretext for instituting open dictatorship.

CONFUSION:  In this situation the opposition fell apart and went back on its Agreement of January 10, which had as its objective to force the opposition to act jointly in order to win fair election terms.  The SPO, which acts like it has a chip on its shoulder, announced that the Agreement reached by the opposition on January tenth has been broken, cutting off all dialogue with other opposition parties.

There is increasing tension on all sides, mutual suspicions and behind-the-scene deal making.  As far as the hero of our story is concerned, he managed to revive political life on the streets of downtown Belgrade, having been in the front lines in the past (1991, 1992, etc.) and having been the victim of attempts to exploit his popular image among the people in initiating protests, with the idea of replacing him once momentum was acquired.  In provincial cities, towns and villages where people are now better informed than the citizens of Belgrade, since the takeover of all independent electronic media by the regime, the hottest question is what is happening in Belgrade.  Everyone is pointing their finger at SPO, which is now reacting more radically, than when they broke up with Djindjic.

While certain opposition movements are beginning to suspect the SPO, either privately or publicly, of trying to make a deal with the regime in its own interest, certain western media are reporting on the "suspect ties between Draskovic and Milosevic" and about the fact that he is holding onto power in Belgrade with the help of the Socialists.  This in fact is not true: he did form a minority government in Belgrade with the help of the Socialists when he kicked Djindjic out of Belgrade's Municipal Government, but now that same Government is holding onto power because of people's representatives who are members of political parties that used to make up the defunct opposition coalition Zajedno, working against the Radicals and the Socialists (the Radicals are more radical, while the Socialists are appropriating Studio B and other independent electronic media in Belgrade, and are taking over the Municipal Transit Authority of Belgrade).

In this was the SPO is taking punches from left, right and behind, without any adequate response and without giving any sign of what they will do.  The political partners of the Serbian Renewal Movement do not know why the SPO is not making any steps.

Reactions by the leadership of the SPO indicates that they were not satisfied with the turnout at the protest meetings in Belgrade.  Other opposition leaders are criticizing the SPO to a lesser or greater extent for not working seriously on "mobilizing" their supporters.  Responses by SPO officials to such criticism are frequently angry and sometimes directed "below the belt."  At the meeting in Belgrade in the middle of May, Draskovic appeared tired and fatigued, departing for the Montenegrin coastline and Budva immediately after.  While he was there, Studio B was closed down.  When he returned to Belgrade several days later, he explained his absence from Belgrade by pointing to his international activities and the fact that he had to go on vacation for health reasons.

COLD SHADOW:  It could be concluded that members of this party were entering a state of psychosis in expectation of a heavier blow from the regime.  There are rumors that people are being followed, lines are being tapped and that there will be assassinations.  There is something ominous about the attitude "They shot Vuk; next time they will kill him!" which is very established among SPO supporters since the assassination attempt in Budva, and even since the dump truck incident on Lazarevac Highway in November of last year.  It could be that this party is inhibited because of this cold shadow of death looming over their leader.  Thus far there have been all too many unsolved murders.  Many of them have political overtones, with two ministers dead, one president of regional government dead, one high official of JUL and one conspirator and executor of the Eight Session of the Socialist Party of Serbia.  However, none of the successful assassinations directly indicated motives of the regime wanting to knock off someone in the opposition.  Ever since he entered the political scene, Draskovic constantly kept repeating that his live is being threatened, and he only went anywhere with his loyal bodyguards, who themselves were regularly swallowed by darkness in the past ten years.  On the last lap of his first pre-election campaign, Draskovic dramatically ripped open his heart before the crowds in Belgrade, shouting "Go ahead, shoot!!!"  It is a matter of conjecture how this statement by the President of the Serbian Renewal Movement was understood.  Draskovic is quoted for allegedly saying that even if he were to be killed and dead, there are people who would say that he is merely pretending.

After the assassination attempt against him in Budva, Draskovic complained that none of the opposition leaders, except for General Momcilo Perisic, actually contacted him to inquire into his state of health.  Commenting Draskovic's disappointment, Vojislav Kostunica, President of the Democratic Party of Serbia repeated his view that the assassination attempt against Draskovic is "a great tragedy," going on to say: "I fail to comprehend how someone can treat such a tragedy as a motive for gathering political support.  That is why I don't know whether Draskovic was correctly quoted."  Perhaps he was.  In as much as he appears complicated in his opposition maneuvers and in his interpretations of written agreements, Draskovic is still very consistent in some regards.  Draskovic's behavior on the political scene is full of grandiose, dramatic and compassionate gestures.  It could be that in a year of great personal and family tragedy (the murder of his brother in law on the Lazarevac Highway assassination attempt against Draskovic himself) this man expects and insists on such moral revenge.  The Montenegrins (Djukanovic and Maras) have the character trait of human dignity and proved themselves dignified in their personal gestures.  Police staff changes and announcements of resignation by the Montenegrin Chief of Police, Mr. Maras, indicate that the principle of public accountability is taking root in that Republic.  After the first indications that all the signs of this crime lead back to Belgrade's Dedinje, the Montenegrin authorities reacted with reservation and did the only thing they could under such circumstances and undertook an extensive investigation.

Draskovic stated that this incident did not send him into a state of shock, but merely put him on guard, given that he is "being persecuted like an animal for ten years already," with this being "a sixth attempt" on his life.  It will be highly unfortunate if the result of this situation ends breeding hatred among other opposition leaders.  This should not happened given that everyone on the political opposition scene commented on the assassination attempt against Draskovic as an incident with inherent long-term dangers.  There might be hidden anxiety behind such reactions, importing fear of greater tragedy to follow.  "Those untouchable state officials are adopting laws about disarming the people, and in turn they attack defenseless citizens like fish in an aquarium," stated Dragan Veselinov.  President of the Civil Alliance of Serbia, Goran Svilanovic stated in Pirot that after the series of murders in Yugoslavia, the Serbian and Montenegrin police must be required not only to resolve those murders, but also to prove unequivocally that they have no involvement in those murders.  The present situation is conducive to spreading fear in the population and could be exploited for canceling the elections or for instituting martial law.

There are dangerous implications in this.  If the regime is set on liquidating Darskovic, then their intentions are totalitarian and dangerous, and there is no room for speculating on the future of other opposition politicians.  Some of the opposition politicians did not manage to contain themselves in suspecting Draskovic of trying to enter into a temporary coalition with the regime, even though a review of the track record of all opposition politicians with regard to making deals with Milosevic would indicate that only Vojislav Kostunica has a clan record in this regard.

Some opposition politicians have turned on Draskovic's opponents (with a short excerpt from the long list of statements to this effect being - "the Summer Festival in Budva began with the short vaudeville 'Vuk, watch out for the bullets'" or "Vuk, they pierced your ear," etc., etc., all stated after the man had been shot) who are not worthy of mention here because lack of basic culture, coupled with cruel arrogance ultimately results in cool disdain.  Lord help the country in which someone of such caliber occupies the position of a minister.

RUSSIAN IRE:  The international coverage of the Draskovic assassination was significant both in the East and the West, with the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Igor Ivanov, being among the first to issue an official condemnation, suggesting that this "act of terrorism is bringing into danger the process of democracy in Yugoslavia."  In the letter directed to Vuk Draskovic, Ivanovic expressed his "deep concern" and desire that "the government will take all necessary measures in order to punish the guilty."  The Italian la Republica daily of Rome reported that the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs expressed anger because of the assassination attempt against Draskovic.  Igor Ivanov met with Draskovic on April 5, and on May 29 Draskovic was accepted by the second man in Russian diplomacy, Aleksandar Avdejev, which points to the desire of the Russian authorities for staying in close contact with the Serbian opposition.

What is the SPO going to do?  Will it continue to dodge bullets in order to avoid crucial losses?  Will this dodging encourage the regime?  Will the SPO go on the counter offensive?  Will it manage to put a halt to the regime's campaign or will it cause a more violent response on the part of the regime?  SPO Spokesman Ivan Kovacevic stated that his Party's Presidium met on June 18 in Budva, in Montenegro, and "adopted decisions in response to the dramatic situation" in Serbia, but did not reveal any details.  It would only be natural to expect that the latest incident will result in cohesion in the entire opposition, in more efficient dialogue, which is still not forthcoming.  In the absence of the SPO, opposition parties are squabbling in the same way as they did when the SPO was fully engaged in their dialogues.

Certain statements issued recently point to the fact that SPO could hand over everything to the Socialists without a fight, even to let them take over the entire Municipal Government of Belgrade, and to permit brute dictatorship in Serbia.  It is hard to understand such a tactic, because in politics whatever is won is never given over as a present, while anything that is given as a present, as a rule, is never returned.  A possible answer might lie in the fact that municipal services are very costly and the Serbian Goverment already ran up a five billion dollar deficit in the first five months of year 2000.  If any comparisons were made, let us say, in the operating costs of Belgrade's Municipal Transit Authority and the operating costs of the Yugoslav Railway, it would be clear that it is not entirely in the interests of the Socialists to continue their campaign to take over all the municipal governments in Serbia.

CRUCIAL INVESTIGATION: It could be possible that the announcements issued by the SPO yesterday are merely a red herring, merely an answer to the friends of the SPO who, like its enemies, like to interpret everything in terms used by the Corriera della Serra daily.  According to this reporter, there are widespread rumors that Draskovic got very rich, that he is very corrupt and is susceptible to blackmail.  This daily expressed the opinion that the political implications of this assassination "are fairly limited in a society in which politics ceded primacy to business, to criminal clans linked with the government, to personal pride, to the sinister logic of a regime which is firing up the climate of conspiracy."  This is an effective, succinct description of our atmosphere of chaos.  Still, in the case of the Leader of the Serbian Renewal Movement, a pattern is all too clear in this chaos where he is concerned, from November 3 of 1999 to June 15 of year 2000.  It still seems that the stakes here are not money, but actual lives.  Perhaps this whirlpool can only be halted by a thorough investigation which is attended by tense expectation.  If what at this point appears fairly probable is proven without doubt, namely that "certain circles" have their fingers mixed into the latest assassination attempt against Vuk Draskovic, the Leader of the Serbian Renewal Movement, it can only be assumed that such information will merely make the position of the regime more difficult and that no red herrings or clamoring on their part can cover up something of this kind.  While the regime has been keeping silent and maliciously smiling, tensions began to simmer in Belgrade on the third day following the assassination attempt when the Montenegrin authorities had still not released the names of the suspects.  Having made available all his police resources and having turned his back on facile political conclusions, Djukanovic proved down there in Montenegro that he has very good political intuition.  The question is whether this investigation can be covered up, in the sense that its outcome could end up costing someone.