An Interestingly Composed Body

On Monday (Jan. 22), after the newly elected parliament of Serbia has been constituted, the president of the republic, Milan Milutinovic, following consultations with the heads of the delegates groups, has offered a mandate to Zoran Djindjic to compose the republic government. That was an expected decision taking into account the relation of power in the parliament – according to the Republic Election Commission´s (RIK) report, 64.08 percent of the voters cast their ballots for the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), and that coalition has thereby acquired 176 delegates mandates; 13.76 percent of the voters cast their ballots for the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), and it has 37 mandates; 8.59 percent voted for the Serbian Radical Party, which gave it 23 mandates; and 5.33 percent of the cast ballots went to the Serbian Unity Party, with 14 mandates. Therefore, the government has a safe parliamentary position and wide public support.

During the election procedure for speaker of parliament, the Socialist Party voted for Dragan Marsicanin, candidate of the Democratic Party of Serbia which was a sign of a peaceful beginning of parliamentary work, something that was also apparent on Tuesday (Jan. 23). The winners of the September and December elections  (and of the October revolution) are to formally become the government this week, which will deprive them of a significant excuse. The inauguration procedure of a government which is known in advance will be completed between Monday and Thursday, and of all the uncertainties, only one remains – let´s use Bodrian´s question: will the new government send off acceptable signs of credibility.

The ministers will, as has been announced, declare their income and will undergo a systematic medical check-up, and then turn to business, for which they have more or less prepared themselves (drew up draft laws, formed teams etc. during the pre-election period).

CLEANING UP: In essence, that government is preparing to commence upon a far-reaching and important reform task (privatization, division of the economic and administrative functions, transparency, predictability, opening up, competition, public control). However, what the members of that government had most often announced as their primary and most urgent task is “cleaning up” – uncovering malversations and theft, a commencement of a persistent and total battle against corruption and first, or so it seems, legal prosecution of the members of the former regime. It is rational to inquire whether that is a correct sequence of events, whether it truly is essential to join that revolutionary order of  “first to court and then to dinner”. A lot of arguments have been and still are being presented to the benefit of cleaning up first. Some kind of “persecution campaign” is emerging for which your reporter, despite the fact that he had also described the corruption and criminalization of the previous system, doesn´t have personal sympathies, since such campaigns remind him of a many-times seen “battle against crime”, of murkiness, of hiding deep problems behind a huge process, of a “victor´s feast” which very rarely comes to any good. After all, even Slobodan Milosevic came to power on a wave of shouts against the “lamb brigades” and look what happened afterwards.

LANDSLIDE: In that context it is beneficial to note that, taking into account the character of the change which is occurring, it is possible to expect that after the new Serbian government is constituted, as Vlada Goati, the political scientist would note, a process resembling a landslide will occur. A large part of the former government (“nomenclature”), opposed to any moves, rigid, cemented, will probably be soon removed and many of their privileges annulled and revised. But aren´t we already witnessing a dash for sinecures, benefits, positions and decorations on the other side. Aren´t we already witnessing, even on the most banal examples such as the case of unauthorized possession of weapons, an unprincipled “protection of the front-line soldiers”. Therefore, a part of that process is a classical “clash of élites”.

The second problem is that a risk exists that many of the former constellations of power, wealth and influence will survive, that, if things don´t quickly move ahead, those who enjoyed privileges thus far will change colors, consolidate themselves, regroup in order to protect their interests, influence and wealth, and will try to maintain the conditions in which they have amassed them.

As far as the public is concerned, it is “moderately revengeful”, or so it seems, therefore, less inclined towards it than the politicians, foreign factors and the media, who, by the nature of things, live from euphoria, dramatizations and exaltations.

According to a diagnosis given by Srecko Mihailovic, a public opinion researcher, what the citizens primarily demand from the new republic government is a better standard of living and quick economic recovery, followed by a battle against crime and corruption and a stabilization of political circumstances in the country. Mihailovic reminds us that all polls show that the citizens have politically matured, that they won´t tolerate mistakes of the new government and in case, after a reasonable period of time, it doesn´t justify their expectations, they will ask it to leave. Almost one third of the polled citizens are so impatient to be convinced of changes for which they had voted that it is absolutely certain they will soon become disillusioned since no government, not even this new one, can bring about changes in such a short period of time.

Danijel Pantic, general secretary of the European Movement in Serbia, otherwise holder of an MA law degree who studies the problems of transition, notes that a credible and stable, non-corrupt state is an important development factor. He believes this is the first year of transition in Serbia during which a better standard cannot be achieved, which 80 percent of our citizens aren´t even hoping for. The new republic government, according to his opinion, might risk to appear too slow since its members are composed of the top leaders of the parties which make up DOS, who will have to reach a consensus for each important issue (such as, for example, privatization). That has its good points because one thereby reaches a balanced solution, but the consequence is that the changes might not be apparent as quickly as would be desirable in our economic situation.

TRANSPARENCY: Of great importance for the citizens, stresses economist Predrag Jovanovic, associate of the Center for Economic Research of the Institute of Social Sciences, is how the new government will handle their money, therefore, all that is undertaken must be public, and a good dam must especially be erected against corruption which no system is immune to. Research which Transparency International has conducted shows that Yugoslavia finds itself amongst the most corrupt countries, following Nigeria; the level of corruption is the greatest in Yugoslavia, which competed with 90 countries in the world. This fact greatly reflects on the economic life of a country and presents a significant barrier against foreign investments. Therefore, to curb such occurrences, not only the government, but also courts, the district attorney´s office, as well as other social structures need to be engaged in this task. The new minister Bozidar Djeric, stressing that a battle against significant corruption is one of the priorities of the government, also for example notes that one of the mistaken practices which needs to be abandoned is to tolerate “low-tension corruption” and tax evasion, and to introduce persistence and principled behavior.

The European Movement in Serbia has launched a program for combating corruption, entitled “Strengthening Transparency of the Budget and Public Acquisitions in the Municipalities of Serbia”, the program will last for a year and is currently being implemented in three municipalities: Nis, Kikinda and Cukarica, and assistance for it is being provided by Transparency International, the most well-known international organization, specializing in combating corruption, with offices in 77 countries.

Naturally, dams against corruption are more easily built for “former” than “current” members – therefore, what will be important for the credibility of this government is whether, for example, the justice minister will overcome his own conflict of interest in the ICN Galenika case, or whether the deputy prime minister of the government Vuk Obradovic will distance himself from one of the founders of his party, Mr. Karic – instead of a declarative repetition of a resolution to see court battles through to their very end with the criminalized advocates of the former regime.

It would be great if the government would set as its priority consolidation of the judiciary and strengthening its autonomy and responsibility, and once that is achieved, the slow mills of justice would crush the criminal hierarchy more efficiently, and would subject the very government itself and its employees to more efficient control. One shouldn´t forget that the new government actually faces a task of combating two corruptions –the corruption of the former regime, in which the boundaries between state and private have been lost, between administrative and entrepreneurial functions, as well as a battle against the upcoming corruption which accompanies all transitions.

Made up of the heads of the parties and experts who are entering into an adventure of historic changes, those who have gathered experience in the ten-year-long opposition battle and those, of whom some two, others six, yet others eight years had gathered experience in government structures as well, this government is a body which is interestingly composed, which will stick together only if that government makes rapid steps toward fundamental moves, if it risks a lot and if it doesn´t lose itself in petty calculations. It is up to the public to keep that government in constant motion like a spinning top. Once a top stops moving – it falls. It would be a pity if that government were to topple even before it completes some vital national business.