The Magic of No. 13

The Montenegrin election campaign can be summed up in terms of, on the one hand, attempts to convince voters that Montenegro should once and for all give up on the illusion of reforming an idea which proved dysfunctional and to go back to what it once had; and on the other hand, Montenegrin voters are being persuaded that Yugoslavia must be kept intact.  These aspirations polarized the electorate into pro-Montenegrin and pro-Yugoslav camps, the latter camp being called the pro-Serbian camp with increasing frequency in recent weeks.

The pro-Montenegrin block is led by the coalition “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” which is made up of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the Liberal Alliance (LS), which is running independently.  Also part of this political block are the recently founded Liberal Democratic Party “Vote for Montenegro” (LDP) and the People’s Unity Party Novak Kilibarda.  On the other side are Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” which includes the Socialist People’s Party (SNP), the People’s Party (NS) and the Serbian People’s Party (SNS).  Other parties also campaigning for a unified Yugoslavia are the People’s Socialist Party – Momir Bulatovic (NSS), the Serbian Radical Party – Vojislav Seselj (SRS), the Yugoslav Left in Montenegro (JUL) and the coalition of the Communist and the Workers Party for Yugoslavia and for Power to the Working Class.

A separate election district has been designated for the Albanian population in the region of Montenegro where they make up the majority, with that district carrying 5 out of a total of 77 seats in the Montenegrin Parliament.  Of course, all other political parties have the right to run in this district.  In the last election, Djukanovic’s coalition won three out of those five mandates, owing to the fact that Albanian political parties do not enjoy the support of the Albanian population which prefers to vote for DPS, the liberals and SDP.  Beside the Democratic Alliance (DS) and the Democratic Union of Albanians (DS), there is also the Party of Democratic Prosperity – Osman Redza which was founded this year.  Each of these Albanian parties is running independently because they did not nmanage to find common language in making a coalition, by contrast with the Muslim political parties which managed to form the Bosnian-Muslim Democratic Coalition.

12 political parties and four coalitions submitted applications to run for seats in the Montenegrin parliament.  However, predictions suggest that the most frequent numbers which will be circled on the ballot slip are no. 1 – which was drawn by the Liberals, no. 8 – Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia,” no. 13 – “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” and no. 16 – the Peoples Socialist Party.  These political parties are considered the principle players in these elections, where a seat for Albanian parties or any of the other parties running in the election would be a complete surprise.

LIBERAL TACTICS:  Opinion polls conducted in recent months indicate that no significant changes have taken place in voter allegiance and that not much will change in the elections which are expected merely to transfer voter support from one party to another within the larger, constant political blocks.  According to the most recent poll conducted by Damar and CEDEM research agencies, Coalition “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” is ahead of Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia”  by about seven points, not including potential Albanian votes.  According to the same polls, the Liberals can expect around ten percent, while the People’s Socialist Party can expect a little under three percent voter support, which is sufficient for it to have a seat in parliament.  These parties are already perceived as post-election coalition partners for the coalition “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” and for coalition “Together for Yugoslavia.”

In a statement given for VREME, the political leader of the Liberals, Miodrag Zivkovic indicated that the only opponent for his the Liberals in this election is Coalition “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic”, because the battle for voter support will only be carried out within political blocks between parties belonging to each block.  “We offered DPS a coalition with the condition that it abandon its platform for redefining relations with Serbia, and turn toward supporting independence for Montenegro.  They showed us that they are not interested in a clean model for the state status of Montenegro.  That is why we will fight so that the DPS and SDP do not get absolute power, because we are convinced that if they win they will declare a moratorium on resolving the state status of Montenegro and will enter into negotiations with Serbia in order to merely prolong the agony.  In any case, opinion polls indicate that 38 percent of the population of Montenegro support Montenegrin independence, which is our political agenda, while a union of republics campaigned for by DPS is supported by only 19 percent of voters.  Our objective is to win more votes of those who support an independent Montenegro and after the elections to force DPS to call a referendum in which the status of Montenegro will be finally decided,” Zivkovic stated.  With this position the Liberals are campaigning aggressively, calling on voters not to give complete confidence to the coalition “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” because they will be duped completely.

On the other hand, DPS has not been responding to attacks coming from the Liberals thus far, although they are depending on a post-election coalition with the Liberals, above all in order to get a two-thirds majority in parliament, thus ensuring passage of all acts debated in parliament.  DPS has not been on the attack in political conflicts within each block, calculating on the fact that this is not necessary and will merely create post-election barriers for creating coalitions.  Analysts claim that such a position suits the DPS in order to keep peace within its own ranks.  Around five percent of its members are kept happy, given that they are still not accepting easily the idea of separation between Montenegro and Serbia, and that this, as well as a possible rift within DPS itself, is the reason why they did not enter into coalition with the Liberals before the elections.  However, not even this helped much in keeping a few community leaders within the ranks of the DPS.  In Berane, for instance, community president Svetio Mitrovic, together with Smaja Sabotic, handed over power to political parties which constitute Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia.”  Mitrovic and Sabotic are otherwise members of the Chief Council of the DPS and did not counter the DPS election platform, but abandoned the DPS at a key moment, changing over to the opposition camp.  Sabotic is even taking part in campaign meetings organized by Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” where is regularly greeted with slogans “Smajo, Srbine.”  Several more members of the DPS changed sides because of the shift in policy within the DPS: they are members of community councils and several mayors (Bijelo Polje and Danilovgrad) which have now become opponents.  However, DPS did not take any steps toward disciplining them or removing them from the party.  They simply told their fellow members that they will not help them out in the campaign, but that they will not hinder they either, so that the longed for rift in the DPS, eagerly wished for in the opposition camp, simply did not happen.

CONFLICT BETWEEN THE BULATOVICS:  However, in the pro-Yugoslav block the conflict between the Bulatovic’s regarding who is the original fighter for Yugoslavia is not abating.  Momir Bulatovic and his associates are trying to convince voters, day in day out, that Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” is nothing but an interest group made up of false supporters of the idea of Yugoslavia.  The arrest of Slobodan Milosevic is a new element in this conflict in which Momir Bulatovic is trying to lobby the support of as many supporters of Slobodan Milosevic as possible, accusing the SNP and Predrag Bulatovic for the arrest of Slobodan Milosevic.  At a campaign meeting in Bijelo Polje, Momir Bulatovic chastised the federal ministers who originate in that city for having flocked around Milosevic until recently, to the point that they made it impossible to approach him, but that now “they are acting as if they never heard of him.”  The Law for Cooperating with the Hague “will be voted in by our friends-until-yesterday in the federal parliament, just as earlier they voted, with their heads lowered, on the law to release Albanian terrorists from Serbian prisons, as well as on the law to forgive all those who did not answer the call to defend this country,” Bulatovic stated.  In his statement for VREME he said that Milosevic cannot answer for any of the acts he is indicted for and that his party will fight aggressively against delivering Milosevic to the Hague.

The present leader of the SNP, Predrag Bulatovic, calmly accepted accusations leveled at him by his former party chief, above all because there was too much squabbling among other party members.  He quickly corrected some of his earlier statements and noted that SNP members in the federal parliament will not vote on the Law for Cooperating with the Hague if it opens up the possibility for delivering Milosevic to that tribunal.  According to the director of the polling organization CEDEM, Srdjan Dramanovic, the Milosevic case will only affect changes in voters support within each political block, which explains why Bulatovic’s NSS is spending more time in battling his former friends than his actual opponents in the Montenegrin government.

Predrag Bulatovic has been reacting with reservation to accusations leveled at him by the NSS and is evidently surprised by the support which Momir Bulatovic is getting with each new day.  On the other hand, according to claims made by one leading member of the SNP, many members of that party do not see any reason for Momir Bulatovic to be on the loose after the arrest of Slobodan Milosevic, above all because as former Yugoslav Prime Minister he is concretely responsible for the steeling of funds from the federal budget, although this also refers to several SNP ministers who are in Zizic’s present federal government.  This could create significant problems for Zizc himself.  If this were not a problem, a call would have been sent to Belgrade long time ago for removing a dangerous political opponent of the SNP in Montenegro.  It is also questionable whether the Government of Montenegro would permit something of the sort, given that they Momir Bulatovic’s enjoys immunity as a member of the Montenegrin Parliament.  The same source added that various calculations are being made and that a large segment of the SNP membership is deeply dissatisfied with the coalition forged with the NS and SNS, above all because they will carry away too large a number of seats in parliament which they did not earn.  Because of all this, their squabbling which is not drowned out by increasingly loud announcements by Predrag Bulatovic that coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” will carry the election victory.  Other parties in this political block, aware of the fact that they are far away from a seat in parliament, are weighing which Bulatovic they should side with.  The Radicals are going with Predrag, while JUL is going with Momir.

ALBANIANS AND MUSLIMS:  The election campaign itself is unfolding far more calmly than previous election campaigns, but there is still no pardon for statements made against political opponents.  All previous parliamentary elections in Montenegro, even the ones in 1998, were won with the slogan “for Yugoslavia”, which is the same slogan banked on by the parties of the pro-Yugoslav block.  Now, like in the past ten years, they are speaking about a democratic federation which, as they say, must be kept intact, something that the entire world is supporting.  This is how Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” leadership is talking, where Ph.D. Bozidar Bojovic and Dragan Soc are adding that Serbian faith is being defended in Montenegro from the Dukljan Clan, where they are saying for Djukanovic’s coalition, the “Dukljan Coalition” wants to split asunder Serbs and Montenegrins and to bring discord into the Orthodox Faith.  Predrag Bulatovic adds that this is a battle against the dictatorship by one man who definitely must go on April 22.  At a meeting in a neighborhood of Podgorica by the name of Tolosi, Predrag Bulatovic stopped supporters from shouting slogans “Milo, You Turk” by saying that they should not refer to him in those terms because “he is definitely the past.”  Crime, drugs, privatization that looks more like theft are the key election issues of the Yugoslav threesome, with recent stress on sending a message to Albanians and Muslims that they should not meddle in brotherly relations between Serbs and Montenegrins.  Initially Dragan Soc denied the right of Albanians to decide on the status of Montenegro, after which he was supported in this by Bulatovic and Bojovic, which resulted in reactions not only by Albanians, but also by all other political parties in Montenegro.  Ph.D. Bozidar Bojovic, however, went even further in Plav with the statement that “the Serbian people are carrying a wound and have negative energy toward those who are dubbed guilty.  Gentlemen Muslims, you must unfortunately accept the fact that you will be dubbed guilty if you contribute to the separation between Montenegro and Serbia with your votes.”  Otherwise, the Yugoslav threesome claim that the majority of supporters at Djukanovic’s meetings is bussed in from Gusinje, Plava, Rozaj and Tuzla.

By contrast with them, Momir Bulatovic is not calling on the international community at all in keeping Yugoslavia together, and is sharpening his rhetoric against DOS with each new day.  Thus in Bijelo Polje he stated that he is happy because he worked with Milosevic, and that SNP and DOS forged a coalition not in order to defend or protect the FRY, but in order to remove from the political scene all those who represent symbols of the FRY and its defense.

WORLD AND THE ARMY:  A response from Coalition “Montenegrin Victory – Democratic Coalition Milo Djukanovic” was not long waiting to all the accusations leveled at it by Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia.”  The response came personally from Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic who criticized the two Bulatovic’s by stating that they can hardly be expected to keep together Yugoslavia when they did not manage to keep together a small opposition party.  Djukanovic criticized Predrag Bulatovic for having entered the federal elections with one candidate, but ended up getting a seat for a different candidate, but then arrested no one other than his top presidential candidate.  According to Djukanovic, Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” is not a coalition for Yugoslavia but against Montenegro, with Bulatovic, Soc and Bojovic being a threesome which merely wants to destroy Montenegro.  President Djukanovic especially sharpened his rhetoric on Montenegrin independence, and in recent days he is mentioning less and less union with Serbia.  In Rastoci, near Niksic, Djukanovic stated the following: “I am sure that on April 22 a huge number of people in Montenegro will circle the number thirteen in which there is something magical – on July 13, 1878, Montenegro was internationally recognized.  I will be particularly happy if our victory is so convincing that it will permit me to call a referendum immediately in Parliament after the election in order to decide on the status of Montenegro.  I will be happy if on July 13 we can once again say that we reinstated an independent and internationally recognized Montenegro once again.”

Djukanovic announced that Montenegro will have its own Army and that it is his wish that the youth of Montenegro never again have to leave Montenegro in order to fight someone else’s battles.  He stated that Montenegro will assume authority over its skies: “We will not permit anyone to decide which planes can land in Montenegro and which destination in the world can be flown to from an airport in Montenegro.”

In his campaign, Djukanovic definitely admitted the following: “As someone who strongly supported the idea of Yugoslavia together, I can stand before you without any regrets and say that this is a mere illusion, it is not realistic.  It is not realistic to expect a joint state between Montenegro and Serbia where Serbia is eighteen times larger.”

Svetozar Marovic, President of the Parliament of Montenegro, was even more eloquent, stating on several occasions at various round table discussion and campaign meetings that Montenegro is older than Yugoslavia, that it will exist after Yugoslavia, because Montenegro can exist without Yugoslavia, but Yugoslavia cannot exist without Montenegro.

The Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” constantly keeps calling on the position of the international community which asserts that it will not permit new borders to be made in the Balkans.  By contrast with the last election, Djukanovic’s opponents no longer have logistical support from Belgrade, with eventual military intervention from Belgrade having been totally eliminated.  However, federal ministers from the ranks of the SNP are offering logistical support, such as Secretary of the Federal Minister of Defense Milovan Coguric, who reacted to Djukanovic’s statement about Montenegro having its own army with the following words: “It is a heinous lie to tell the Montenegrin people that it is threatened from Serbia and by Serbs.  We are not afraid of Serbia, but without Serbia.  Together our two republics can fight for democracy and putting a stop to disintegration in the Balkans.  Apart, Montenegro is threatened by renewed separation – the Albanian Academy of Science, for instance, drew a map of Albania which includes Budva and Niksic, with its northern border extending into Vasojevic.  On the other hand, it is very false and ill spirited on Djukanovic’s part to try to convince voters that things will remain the same between Montenegro and Serbia after they separate.  New international relations will be inevitable between Montenegro and Serbia.  Our students will not be able to study in Belgrade like other students from Serbia, but will have the status of students from Namibia and Morocco; we will not be able to get health care in Serbia, the way we did thus far, and everything will be harder and more difficult for us.”

There are also increasing accusations that the Montenegrin Government is getting ready to steel the elections.  In this, the key argument is the Montenegrin Police order for 50,000 application forms for I.D.’s and 10,000 passports.  Will these I.D.’s be issues to non-existent voters, thus ensuring victory for Djukanovic’s faction.  The answer to this is that such fraud is absolutely impossible because every political party has a list of voters, with additions and changes in the lists being under the control of all political parties, including the issuing of new I.D.’s whose serial numbers have been submitted to the OSCE, which can easily control who has the new I.D.’s.  the Coalition “Together for Yugoslavia” submitted a complaint with regard to voters’ lists, claiming that 7000 voters were entered twice, that a large number of voters are no longer living, etc., while the removal of irregularities in voters’ lists has been agreed upon by the coalitions, by Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic and OSCE representatives. 

Removing irregularities from the election process is crucial in order to avoid the possibility of violence following the elections – that is to say, if the election result is close.