Dangerous Connections

The murder of the former member of the State Security Service, Mr. Gavrilovic on the day he paid a visit to the cabinet of Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica can be said to be "a little more than a crime."  It was sheer indecency, perhaps even political provocation.  But the ensuing response on the part of President Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia was nothing if not disproportional.  Taking this criminal act as evidence that crime and corruption in the country have completely gone out of control, as a result of which the Democratic Party of Serbia decided to withdraw all its representatives in the government, is a good example of tactlessness.

Perhaps this is no great sin, but in politics, and especially on the Yugoslav political scene in the past decade, this tendency toward disproportionate reactions and fierce responses frequently produced many unwanted ramifications and invariably carried a high price.  In the past the ideal which was nurtured was one of simplification whereby every mistake was punished identically.  A curt death sentence.  As we know, in many cases this ideal was realized fully.

President Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia appears to be continuing this proud tradition, which is peculiar for at least two reasons.  First, because the people of Serbia have understood this mode of behavior for what it is and have learned their lesson - they are not likely to be swayed any time soon by someone who merely wants to destroy, while not offering any hope of being able to do any better than the people they want to destroy.  Second, the president of the Democratic Party of Serbia and of Yugoslav is hardly a man given to brash behavior and would certainly not have attained his present measure of popularity had he acted unreasonably, had he made threats, had insulted his opponents while pursuing interests which are beyond national interests.  For a politician like him with his political past, the departure of the Democratic Party of Serbia from the government appears a very radical step.

Crime and corruption number among the greatest evils plaguing present day Serbia, but on a scale of drawbacks, compared to other countries, this drawback would probably occupy the same place as many others.  It would be somewhere in the category of drawbacks associated with poverty which often attends dishonesty.  To say that the present government is guilty for everything, that it corrupted a people which is otherwise full of virtue, or that it did not manage to make any change in the positive direction with regard to crime and corruption, will hardly sound convincing to anyone.  In other countries going through reforms, governments are not too successful in curbing or even concealing crime, let alone regulating it legislatively.  Serbia is hardly an exception in this sense.

At no moment have I doubted that there are people close to the present government who are engaged in various shady deals and close to dirty money, but if it is true that the majority of such people are the unwanted inheritance of the previous regime, then President Kostunica's hands also are hardly clean in this regard, given that he took such an inordinate amount of time in getting rid of the former Chief of the State Security Service, a man who is now under a Hague indictment.  For the State Security Service must have had a control tower from which crime and corruption could be regulated, or at the very least overseen and from which the greatest majority of illegal activities could be monitored.

Personally I would not wager everything on things Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, but many ministers seem to me to be upright, honest people, beyond all reasonable doubt, and I would be prone to say that this government as a whole knows what it is doing and essentially agrees over the direction it has taken.  The people can grumble over many things, but the government is not unpopular, or at the very least not to the extent that the majority of the electorate would welcome its downfall.  In any case, the Democratic Party of Serbia hardly has anything better to offer.  If this political party were to decide to vote against the government together with the Socialist Party of Serbia, the Serbian Radical Party and the Alliance of Socialists of Yugoslavia, I believe that the majority of the Serbian people would hardly welcome such a show.

Of course, division of power is the main issue here.  It is well known that President Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia expanded very rapidly and has very few of its own in places where actual decisions are made.  It is worth noting, however, that this is hardly a problem unique to this political party and that every politician and every political party in a similar position invariably forces this issue.  This means that Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic should not be allowed to say that the survival of his government is a matter of greater national interest, that political stability is necessary at this time because of reforms and relations with the rest of the world, and that the Democratic Party of Serbia should sacrifice itself in the name of the common good.

Djindjic and his government are certainly in a better position, with the Democratic Party of Serbia putting itself in the position of blame should the present parliamentary crisis continue.  But whatever Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica loses does not stand to go to Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic.  That is why Prime Minister Djindjic would be well advised to desist from blackmailing his political opponents, if he were even to withhold from forcing the Democratic Party of Serbia into the open, from forcing a debate on the reconstruction of the government to show that the basis for the entire crisis is precisely this.  It would stand in his stead more if he himself were to offer a reconstruction of the Serbian government, thereby whetting some of the Democratic Party of Serbia's appetites.

Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic and all others who are purportedly interested in reforms and modernization in this country must realize that their purported objectives cannot be achieved without the support, and especially not against the will of those people in Serbia who are represented by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and his Democratic Party of Serbia.  Such major steps, if only for the fact that they are very positive and enlightening, cannot be taken quickly, except in cases where some degree of force is applied.  If we already ventured into some form of democracy, then we hardly have a choice in patiently working on convincing the conservative majority of the necessity of reform.  Democracy is latency.  Fall of the government at the present time would certainly be bad news.  I think that it would come as a welcome excuse to international donors who promised aid.  It is true that the Democratic Party of Serbia, even if it were to become part of the official opposition, could not force a vote of not confidence to Djindjic's government.  However, both parties can evidently make life very difficult for each other, and it would hardly be the first time for our politicians to agree to commit collective suicide.  Hence it is hardly unusual that this thought is patently visible on their faces and that they are hardly managing to contain themselves.

Whoever takes part in this conflict as a mere spectator, waiting to feel the direct consequences of this conflict on their skin, has no reason to route passionately for one side or the other.  However, if sportive routing is your thing, don't let anyone ruin your pleasure.