Reconstruction, Followed by Elections

After the "advisors war ", by the middle of last week a turnabout was made towards a "communiqué war". On Thursday, Aug. 16, the government of Serbia in its announcement requested an urgent and uncompromising clarification of the case connected with the assassination of the former state security employee Momir Gavrilovic: "If any evidence exists or indications of a link between the government and crime, the government demands that decisive action should immediately be taken. If they don't exist, we ask that liability is determined for those who had harshly slandered the representatives of the current government. Slander and lies cannot be political means...".  

The following day, on Friday Aug 17, 2001, the presidency of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) answers that "epistle" by pulling their representatives out of the government of Serbia: deputy prime minister Aleksandar Pravdic, health minister Obren Joksimovic. DSS pulls out all of the deputies and assistant ministers as well, giving the following reason - the government's incapability to fight against organized crime adding with a tiny self-critical note that the ministers' pull out is also a sign of discontent towards itself.

Remaining strongly convinced that organized crime and corruption are the greatest enemies of democratic changes in our country and the greatest hindrance for its inclusion into the international community of organized legal states on an equal basis, the DSS presidency warns that: "No organized crime chain has been severed nor have their leaders been punished, and not one of the numerous murders which shook the public has been resolved. That is why a justified question is raised, does organized crime enjoy protection and support from certain parts of the government, or is the government of Serbia incapable of dealing with it."

HOLY COW: In answer, the presidency of the Democratic Party (DS) expressed conditions for the future operation of DOS on Aug. 18: "clarification of all accusations aimed at the government of Serbia and the government's name has to be cleared". That and other conditions, as was said, are the result of the stands of the majority of DOS members, especially those who are a part of that government, since those parties don't want to be put on the "pillar of shame". "If those conditions are met, we are prepared to negotiate", subsequently stated Serbian prime minister Djindjic, adding that no one is a "holy cow", that anyone can be replaced, and that the important problems in DOS will be dealt with at the meeting of the presidency of that coalition. He later said that he wouldn't give up Mihajlovic and Batic, upon which the DSS parliamentary party chief Dejan Mihajlov remarked that it appears that "holy cows" do exist in the government after all.

The government, the Democratic Party, the Demo Christian Party, the Social Democratic Union and part of the media channeled the public's attention towards deficiencies in the operations of the president of Yugoslavia's cabinet, talking about the creation of parallel centers of power. On the other hand, DSS immediately retorted by "clarifying the role" of Beba Popovic in the Serbian government.

A hunt ensued on who had privately met the late Gavrilovic in Belgrade and where, who had spoken of police reforms and where. A rumor was then launched (Canak, Nedeljni Telegraf) that Kostunica or someone from the army had been preparing a coup d'etat.

A week after it had received the notes on the conversation which the late Gavrilovic had led in the cabinet of the FRY president in which, as Kostunica says, "some names known to us all" were also mentioned, and a full three weeks after the murder which changed DOS, the police came out with facts from some 150 interrogations which prepared the field for new speculations, doubts, insinuations and confusion. Gavrilovic is connected with a number of people from the underworld and his engagement in eastern Slavonija is especially highlighted as well as his friendship with Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan.

Amongst Gavrilovic's contacts, a few people who work for Stanko Subotica Cane are also mentioned, a man with whom the Serbian government has been unpleasantly linked in the unresolved "tobacco affair". Namely, it was mentioned that prior to the murder, Gavrilovic had contacted Branko Curcic, a former head of the special police units for Vojvodina, who is working for Subotic as a bodyguard, and Vuk Stanisic, the son of Jovica Stanisic, who is employed as a pilot for the aforementioned Cane Subotic.

Gavrilovic's fate reminds us of the fact that state officials who drove around in the plane of the aforementioned gentleman were, at the very least, exposed to the greatest security risk, as well as a sin of irresponsibility towards their own standing. Actually, the thus far investigation seems to explain why such a racket was raised. Kostunica is relying on an unreliable witness which is a dangerous sign of the cabinet's carelessness, its weak security culture, as well as incompetence. If we are to add Vuk Obradovic's claim that the cabinet of the FRY president is bugged and that the contents of the discussion are being spread throughout the local pubs, then all of the services and all those in charge should be in an uproar, yet nothing is heard.

In the police report on the thus far investigation, beside all those "descriptions of the victim", the assassin is only presented as an unclear figure who disappears at a run. Mihajlovic dismisses DSS's accusations of an explosion of crime and repeats that 60.56 percent of the murders are resolved, which is above average even in the richer countries. DSS members retort that Mihajlovic's diagnosis is in sharp contrast to the one his associates give of a general crime rate increase. A statistical average isn't what is troubling the police, but what was mumbled through clenched teeth might be - that Gavrilovic "had pointed out alleged connections of certain individuals from the public security department with organized crime", that he was "worried because a number of former colleagues had seen him". There is no sign that the investigation has given special significance to that aspect. The larger problem also remains - is such a horrible image of the former member of the service an exception in the files. Under that mask, a gaping wound emerges.

A LOT OF STORIES ON INTEGRITY: On the other side, the Serbian government, all in all, made a mistake of defending itself to such an extent and in such a manner in that case when it exploded in their face. The government requested an investigation for the public, but its punch line was in the repetition: "Show the evidence!"

The Serbian government entered into that duel with DSS by excessively talking about integrity, obviously inhibited due to the Subotic case, practically beginning for confidence and being overly upset because of the doubts. However, the public is intuitively inclined to doubt those who are powerful. Anyway, on such high levels, innocence constantly needs to be proven, while innocence is assumed in court.

The case was generalized too soon and became a weapon of political battles, whose powerful round will be held this week at the DOS presidency session. Obviously, there is no other way to stop the political dispute over this case, the only question is what the outcome will be. A member of the presidency of the Democratic Party of Serbia, Dusan Budisin was more precise after the announcement of DSS's presidency, that his party will request a debate primarily within DOS, and if it isn't satisfied with the results, it will also request a debate in the parliament of Serbia. The parliamentary speaker Marsicanin coolly repeated that after objections (Canak, Ceda Jovanovic) that DSS will actually enter into a coalition with the radicals and the socialists by launching a parliamentary debate. However, Marsicanin classified that as mere stupidity.

Naturally, the opposition is looking for its chance in that debate: the Serbian Party of Unity (SSJ) will vote in favor of toppling the government, the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) as well, the Serbian Reconstruction Movement (SPO) is requesting early elections and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) says it will vote against Djindjic, but won't vote for Kostunica. SPS's general secretary Zoran Andjelkovic assessed that "it would be hypocritical if DOS were to pretend that nothing had happened.

The prime minister of Serbia Zoran Djindjic heard the news of DSS's government pull out with surprise, but kept saying for two-three days that a readiness does exist to launch a debate on all controversial issues, at the DOS presidency as well as in the Serbian parliament. He reproached DSS for not having accepted the call of the government of Serbia to "uncompromisingly clarify the issues of organized crime and the role of each individual" within its limits. He reproached DSS for envisaging that the government would be toppled from the very beginning and for not accepting responsibility. In one RTS interview he said he had offered the deputy prime minister from DSS Aleksandar Pravdic to  control everything in connection with cigarettes, which he refused, just like he refused to take over Vuk Obradovic's empty seat in the anti-corruption commission. Djindjic left room for the possibility that the government could be toppled in parliament, and he also didn't exclude a possibility of new elections, depending on the development of the political situation in the country, but he warned that DOS's collapse could influence the fate of the federal state. He also noted that with DOS's collapse "the federal government would also no longer exist", that the "issue of the federal state would be overly dramatized, that the issue of resolving the problem in Kosovo and economic cooperation with the world, e.g. economic aid from outside would also be additionally complicated."

Such an extent of negative prognosis seemed defensive (such as, "the state will fall apart if Batic leaves"), even though a number of public figures, some individually, others in an orchestrated "echoes and reactions" manner, pointed towards huge potential general damage if things got out of hand in this case. A similar fear was also expressed on the "other side" (DSS's) by the federal finance minister Jovan Rankovic, and in a certain way by president Kostunica's advisor, Predrag Simic.

For a no confidence vote, at least 126 deputy votes are needed, and the same amount is needed for its unimpeded operation. At the parliamentary elections, DOS won a total of 176 votes, but from that party club, DSS was the first to pull out with 45 deputies, followed by New Serbia with eight deputies and the Movement for a Democratic Serbia with five deputies. The DOS parliamentary club, whose chief is Cedomir Jovanovic, now only has 118 deputies. That doesn't suffice to allow the government to rule. DSS's parliamentary club has 45 mandates, and with 37 deputies of the Socialist Party of Serbia, 23 of the Serbian Radical Party and 14 deputies of the Serbian Party of Unity, it comes to a total of 119, and with the votes of New Serbia, 127. No glue could keep them together even during the short period of voting against the government.

The vice president of the Movement for a Democratic Serbia (PDS) Slobodan Vuksanovic assessed that the best option is to resolve the political crisis within DOS, but, in case that proves to be impossible, "the only natural solution is a gentlemen's agreement on early elections".

That might mean that a decision on new elections could have a majority, but it remains questionable when it will become active. To head for elections immediately wouldn't be good, not only because the reform package hasn't been completed but also because at this moment it remains unclear in what state those elections could be held.

There is no easy solution to this riddle. Even if Djindjic could patch up some sort of majority with 126 votes, it will be a government without  significant public support and it won't be able to do a thing other than to run away from the demonstrators. A fairly significant member of the ruling coalition accused that government for its weakness in fighting against crime. That party's initiative is based on the overwhelming feeling of public opinion that this is Columbia. Not even the Holy Council can stop that debate now, and DSS will have to open its strongbox. Kostunica announces that there is no future without changes in the government.

Both sides, beside the battle for influence, also have interest to show that the government they had chosen is not corrupt. Anyway, its efficiency both in the country and abroad depends on that. It would have been better if they had launched an energetic internal investigation for the smallest doubt and used that occasion to introduce order into a dangerously neglected sphere... They have entered that sphere now, but they seem to be blinded by the zeal of a party battle. Some kind of productive government reconstruction could be a suitable solution at least for the next six months, during which one could expect a conclusion of the negotiations with the Montenegrins and for the new Yugoslav and Serbian constitutions to be passed.

This thing cannot be concluded with some kind of trade arrangement, and finally, the fate of Djindjic's government and even DOS itself isn't the most important issue here. The most important thing will be for all of them (every last one of them) who are educated, successful and honest people, to sit down and remember that maman used to tell them to watch who they associated with and conclude that it can also be applied now that they've become politicians. After that they should see whether they have obligated each other for something, and stick to their agreements. After that it will be clearer whether the ruling coalition is ready to sever an inherited, ill situation which has started to attack them, too. Prior to the parliamentary debate, the ruling coalition must show that it is capable of being stronger than its own weaknesses and to face a showdown with state enemy Number One. Finally, this is the real moment for it, because the sharks are yet to come with privatization.