Beginnings of Real Dialogue

Had America not been attacked by its own jet liners, navigated by terrorists, the majority of editors of weekly magazines in Yugoslavia would have had a hard time deciding what to put on their front pages this week - the image of Yugoslav basketball players celebrating a new gold medal at the European Championships or that of Yugoslav and Montenegrin presidents Vojislav Kostunica and Milo Djukanovic, with dour faces discussing the fate of the federal state.  Given the fact that talks between Belgrade and Podgorica in recent years have taken place fewer times than our basketball players have managed to bring home gold, the hypothetical problem over this week's front pages would have been no small matter.

FLEXIBLE PLATFORMS:  Shortly before the meeting between Kostunica and Djukanovic in Podgorica, the Yugoslav Supreme Defense Council met, with many trying to get a photo of General Nebojsa Pavkovic and Serbian President Milan Milutinovic together at that meeting.  There has been talk for some time now that General Pavkovic might want to retire following this meeting.  Some even claim that something of this sort was planned for this Tuesday (even though it wasn't), but it is unlikely that anyone in the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) would have decided to release the Chief of the Supreme Headquarters of the Yugoslav Army at a time when Kamikaze pilots are targeting the Pentagon.  As far as Milutinovic is concerned, this is his first visit to Montenegro since the time that local leaders announced that they will forward anyone to the Hague who appears on Carla del Ponte's indictment list and who dares to set foot on Montenegrin soil.  The meeting of the Yugoslav Supreme Defense Council finally ended without any spectacular decisions being adopted and with an announcement that state borders are a matter that requires even greater attention now than it has received so far.  The issues of transformation of the Yugoslav Army and of joining the Partnership for Peace will be discussed once it is definitely decided what our official state borders are and what our state will be called.

Hence the real and the biggest news from Podgorica is that Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, in actual fact, finally met and intimated to each other in a civilized way something that both of them already knew for some time - that relations between Serbia and Montenegro are not good and that they need to improve along democratic lines, that is to say through dialogue.  At the Villa Gorica, Montenegrin President Djukanovic reiterated his support for the disintegration of the federal state and the creation of two independent states, while Yugoslav President Kostunica once again defended the federal state from the very people who took part in its creation (Milo Djukanovic played an active role in the creation of today's Yugoslavia, alongside Momir Bulatovic, Montenegrin President at the time, and Slobodan Milosevic who was at the helm of that new state for over a decade), and insisted on supporting a federation even if its ties amount to no more than shoestrings, in what is called a federation with minimal functions.  Therefore, real talks are yet to follow, and as to how serious they will be depends above all on reactions by those people who thus far usually told the public that such initiatives are "idle business and the putting off of something that needs to be faced eventually."  Advisors to Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic claimed this time also that the holding of a meeting of the Yugoslav Supreme Defense Council (for the third time since Vojislav Kostunica became President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) is "a mere charade", and that the federal state has had little significance for the government in Podgorica for some time now.  For starters, a new tone in Podgorica can be surmised with potential negotiators on the Montenegrin side pointing out that all future talks must include the President of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Vojislav Kostunica, something that they were not willing to accept thus far.  Also notable are claims by both sides that their respective platforms on the reorganization of the federal state should not be considered "to be etched in stone."

PRAGMATIC BAIT:  Even though no one in Montenegro is in any apparent hurry to make a move with regard to the federal state, there appears to be a readiness in Podgorica for the laying of foundations for a more direct political engagement.  Since the Montenegrin elections held in April of this year, everyone negotiated with everyone else probably on every issue, and probably calculated all the possible combinations which could come about.  The two leading political groups - Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Predrag Bulatovic's Socialist People's Party (SNP) - have mostly exhausted and reduced to a minimum the myriad of options for further tactical maneuvers, and have probably realized in the meantime that their resources in terms of the electorate have also become virtually exhausted.  Both political groups are also fairly aware of how much they can profit from the disagreements apparent in the Democratic Opposition of Serbia and how much they can rub this sore spot in Serbian politics.  The international community's attitude has also become crystallized with regard to Yugoslav-Montenegrin relations: a democratic Montenegro within a democratic Yugoslavia.  This apparent attitude in the international community can be seen also in the greatly reduced frequency of visits made by the President of Montenegro abroad these days, by comparison with his prior sojourns to many of the world's capitals.  The AFP Agency announced that in his visit to Belgrade, the French President Jacques Chirac will also speak with Milo Djukanovic and will relate to him his and the European position with regard to the need for the survival of the federation with minimal functions.

For starters, Milo Djukanovic is readying himself for a DPS party congress in which his party plans to throw out all support for Yugoslavia from its party program, only to replace it with support for a sovereign and independent Montenegro.  At first glance, such a position appears to put an end to any possibility for dialogue on the fate of the federal state, even before any such dialogue has begun.  As an exceptionally pragmatic politician, Milo Djukanovic is not casting a single bait, but is throwing a veritable slew of fishhooks, and waiting to see what the "bite response" is, above all on the part of his rival political party, Montenegro's Socialist People's Party.  Ultimately, this entire debate cannot be postponed beyond March of next year, when the referendum on the state-legal status of Montenegro is scheduled to be held.  Until that time, it is possible that tensions will increase in Serbia, along with an unwillingness to wait that long for deciding on such a weighty issue.  This would give Djukanovic an excuse to react.  Of course, there is also another option.  Namely, remaining part of the federal state could be justified in terms of the need for Montenegro to finally stabilize from within in order to speed up and facilitate its becoming part of regional and European integration.

One day prior to the meeting of Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica and Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic in Podgorica, a meeting of the presidents of the football associations of Serbia and Montenegro, presidents Dejan Savicevic and Nebojsa Lekovic, was held in which they agreed on everything very quickly and easily, especially on the question of new appointments in the football organizations.  Those who support the survival of the federal state see a positive sign in this.  The supporters of an independent Montenegro claim that what is at issue here is a deal being made inside a bankrupt association.