The Second Serbian-Croatian War

It is still not clear what Croatian President Franjo Tudjman wished to achieve with last week's violation of the year long ceasefire in Croatia. Several explanations spring to mind: securing the construction of a pontoon bridge in the Maslenica gorge through a military action, since the Serbian authorities in Krajina refused to withdraw their armed formations to a distance from which they would not pose a threat; a demonstration of firmness by the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) ahead of local elections in February, the strengthening of the Serbian radical-nationalist current; the undermining of negotiations in Geneva, the thwarting of a new mandate of the UN peacekeeping troops in a war of all against all which would ensue after their departure; or the enforcement of a solution by arms - and may the better man win.

Cyrus Vance's plan, which the warring sides accepted at the end of 1991, foresees among other things, demilitarization, local police with a pre-war national composition, the opening of communications, the return of refugees and the continuation of the Republic of Serbian Krajina as a United Nations Protected Area (UNPA) within the Republic of Croatia. The basic role of the UN troops deployed in the four zones with a majority Serbian population, i.e. in the areas of fiercest ethnic conflicts, is "to ensure that these areas remain demilitarized, and that all persons living in them be protected from fear of armed attacks." All controversial issues, such as the status of Krajina, would be resolved later through negotiations.

The war in Bosnia-Herzegovina has opened up new military-statehood options, so that a good deal of the plan has remained on paper only. Even though the Serbian side had numerous objections (primarily over the peacekeeping force's attempts at consistently carrying through the disarming of local police), Croatia's dissatisfaction with the tempo of the plan's implementation, the way Zagreb sees it, is more marked and serious. The fact that the refugees did not return home, serves as a strong generator of attacks on Tudjman, as the fact that no progress has been made in freeing communications. It is precisely these communications that are one of the most difficult problems facing the Croatian authorities: the railway link with Dalmatia and other parts of the country has been severed, while the road links are being carried out with great difficulty via ferries. All this has been reflected in Tudjman's statements made in the second half 1992, to the effect that if UNPROFOR did not fulfil Croatia's demands, it would not be given approval for an extended mandate.

Ahead of the Geneva talks, it looked as if an agreement between the Serbs and Croats would be achieved over the reconstruction of the bridge. Both sides gave firm guarantees that they would not obstruct the negotiations.

The Croatian army attack on Serbian police in Krajina started on January 22 at 7,05 a.m. in the direction of Maslenica along the Velebit ridge, and from Zadar towards Zemunik airport. Earlier statements by the Krajina authorities regarding the concentration of Croatian troops close to the dividing line were not taken seriously, all the more so, as an eventual offensive was expected in spring. Not long after the start of the attack, the Serbian forces confiscated heavy arms from the UNPROFOR depots, which soon found itself inundated with accusations. Military sources in Knin claim that French UNPROFOR soldiers left their positions in Zemunik without any previous warning, and that generally, they helped the Croatian side with their incorrect behavior. After the death of 22 policemen from Gracac on January 23 at the Mali Alen saddle, it seemed that the safety of the French in Krajina, was rather debatable. Namely, Croatian army sabotage units had ambushed the policemen well behind the line of combat, and, as underlined in Knin, they had passed two control points guarded by French soldiers. Gracac police brigade commander colonel Nikola Mihic said that the peacekeeping forces did not allow a unit which had tried to help its ambushed comrades, to pass through. In the meantime, a group of 20-odd peacekeeping soldiers, mostly French, were detained in the Benkovac hotel (Krajina officials say that they were not detained, but held "for their own safety.") Top UN officials who visited the soldiers said that they were in no danger, and were being treated correctly. However, as fighting progressed, and after the death of two French soldiers, the attitude to UNPROFOR changed.

In the first phase of the attack, Croatian units managed to capture the villages of Islam Grcki and Islam Latinski, Crno and Maslenica reaching Jesenice, thus capturing villages along the Adriatic Highway, and coming out on the western side of the Maslenica gorge. Serbian units were also pushed back at Novigrad where two Croatian gun-boats had sailed in. On the same day that the conflict broke out, Repuplic of Serbian Krajina President Goran Hadzic proclaimed a general mobilization and called for volunteers from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (among the first to come were Captain Dragan and Zeljko Raznjatovic Arkan), while the Republic of Serbian Krajina Foreign Ministry sent a note to the Yugoslav government reminding it that in the event of a threat to the population of Krajina, it was obliged to give military aid.

All information arriving from the battlefields spoke of difficult and dramatic battles. A general alarm was sounded in Knin, Obrovac and Benkovac which came under Croatian artillery fire on several occasions. The Serbian side says that 150 of its men have been killed, and that since the start of the attack 830 civilians have died. The Krajina authorities seek humanitarian aid for around 12,000 refugees in the Kninska Krajina proper, which points to the fact that Serbian villages have been torched and destroyed.

Goran Hadzic told a press conference in Belgrade on January 28 that Serbian forces had launched a strong counter-attack and had managed to recover 80% of the territory. It has been confirmed that Croatian forces have been pushed back from the villages of Skabrnja and Kasic. In battles for the village of Kasic, Arkan's "Tigers" played an important role. In an exclusive statement for TV Banja Luka (January 27) Raznjatovic said that "the battle was being fought for the Orthodox faith," and that on that very day, St. Sava's feast day, a bomb had hit the house where he was staying with his Tigers, but that "St. Sava had saved them." Raznjatovic said this was proof that the "Serbs were in the right" and that in the end, "the truth would win." He crossed himself in front of the cameras and promised that "Novigrad would fall in a few days," because, as he put it, "Serbia deserves its sea." However, according to information which has arrived before this issue goes to the press, battles are spreading to Drnis and the Peruca dam. On January 29 around noon it was confirmed that Croatian forces had captured the dam which was partially damaged and that water had started spilling out over the top, so that there was danger of its breaking and of a great ecological catastrophe. The authorities in Knin claim that the Peruca dam was captured after the withdrawal of the Krajina police at the demand of the peacekeeping forces, and that two journalists working for "Channel S" from Pale (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Ognjen Tadic and Milovan Pejovic were taken prisoner. The same source says that a new offensive is underway - from Maslenica to Peruca, and that strong Croatian units backed by tanks are trying to capture Obrovac and Benkovac which are being pounded by strong artillery fire.

As far as the Croatian side is concerned, and notwithstanding all international consequences which will follow after its armed forces' attack, all political parties, with the exception of the Social-Democratic Union (SDU) led by Branko Horvat, have taken the side of the government. The possibility of sanctions is not being taken seriously, since, as Tudjman says, "it is not aggression. Croatia is using its troops in its territory." It is believed that Serbian policy and its military units, especially those outside Serbia are so hated, that there will be little media fuss and that a fait accompli will be accepted.

Regardless of suppositions by the Croatian authorities in Zagreb that "Velebit Storm," as the Croatian media have dubbed the action, will end in a lot of diplomatic smoke and without concrete consequences. What has brought relations between Croatia and the United Nations to their lowest point, is not the UN's great love of Serbia, but fears that Yugoslavia might be walking headlong again into an open war with unforeseeable consequences. For the time being, apart from combative statements by generals, and the placing of the Yugoslav Army in a state of high combat readiness, Western diplomatic circles are praising Yugoslavia's "restraint." It is well known that such "restraint" has its limits, all the more so as rightists such as Vojislav Seselj (Serbian Radical Party leader) are accusing the Yugoslav leadership of treason, especially President Dobrica Cosic, and imputing that he made a deal with Tudjman. Yugoslavia is limiting itself to humanitarian aid, diplomatic pressures and, so to speak, to disciplining the Republic of Serbian Krajina leadership.

How long this policy will hold, depends above all, on Croatia's further military involvement in Krajina. It is hard to believe that a further escalation would not be to the advantage of the Serbian nationalist hawks, and that Yugoslavia, regardless of its restraint, would not intervene. Who knows, perhaps this is the card being played by the authorities in Zagreb. The spreading of the conflict to Drnis and its vicinity, including the Peruca dam, in spite of the UN's strongly-worded statements to Croatia, all seem to confirm such a possibility.

Finally, it all boils down to Tudjman's motives in approving the action in Zadar's hinterland. He gained unanimous public support. He demonstrated determination in returning lost territory, by hook or by crook. And, he has started on one of the most difficult problems left by the war - the joining up of practically separated parts of the state. Perhaps the action really was of a limited character, but because of the upcoming elections, it had to be carried out in style. Perhaps it was thought that the inhabitants of Krajina would be forced to accept a fait accompli because of their rating on the world political scene. Withdrawal at this moment, after the straining of relations with the international community, would be a defeat at home which it would be hard to justify. All in all, Tudjman's only true mainstay are Serbian hawks. If they take things into their hands, a total Balkan war is inevitable. In that case, the Maslenica bridge will be a very small problem.