The "Blues" Against the "Reds"

"Sending the UN peace keeping forces could contribute to the war ending efforts in that republic and thus create the conditions for the peaceful solution of the Yugoslav crisis", said a few days ago Borisav Jovic, the member of the so-called Yugoslav Presidency and the President of the Socialists. How did the foreign troops, which were in August considered to be "incompatible with the country's independence" (Vladislav Jovanovic, the Serbian Foreign Affairs Minister), have suddenly become "the decisive factor which would produce favourable results in the Hague." The process was gradual. August, as we all remember, was a month when the European trio used to visit Yugoslavia frequently and later put forward a suggestion for the peaceful solution of the Yugoslav crisis, which included sending the foreign observers to Slovenia and Croatia. Milosevic and his colleagues did not want to hear anything about sending the foreign observers to the Croatian battlefields. On the contrary, the arrogance, which is the landmark of Milosevic's regime, has reached its climax.

Dr Branko Kostic (the Vice-President of the Federal Presidency) at that time spoke in Herceg-Novi (a coastal town in Montenegro): "We could try and see whether we could use the authority of the European Community to make the Croatian leadership respect the offers of the EC which it had accepted on numerous occasions. If we see that there are no realistic grounds that it could be achieved, then we shall have no alternative but to call upon the Army to break the paramilitary formations in Croatia by force..."

According to Vojislav Seselj (the leader of the Sebian Radical Party), "the so-called European peace initiative is coming at the time when the ustashi (the Croatian forces) are faced with heavy casualties in the battlefields". The cease- fire which is under the supervision of the impartial observers of the European Community was approved by the Democratic Party in August. Then, all of a sudden, in September the arrival of foreign observers to Croatia was given consent to. Henri Weynands, the envoy of the EC chairman, has observed that in Belgrade "the protagonists in the conflict keep changing their mind. They now want the observers to come and consider the presence of impartial observers in the war zone necessary". The official Serbia and its exponents in the Yugoslav Presidency do not admit a change of heart. The altered attitude was, as usual, attributed to a misunderstanding: they, in effect, were not in favour of the foreign troops (which the European trio did not ask for), whereas the unarmed foreign observers are welcome. The war in Croatia was escalating before the very eyes of foreign observers. The front was expanding, the news of incredible cruelty were coming in. The army was sinking lower and lower into the quick sand of its on disorientation and incompetence in Vukovar and Dubrovnik.

The widespread resistance of mobilization was gathering momentum in Serbia and Montenegro, despite the drastic measures applied, the calls for denunciation and the various threats to the "traitors", which included the death penalty as well. The true extent of war casualties is kept quiet about, but it is by now obvious that the death toll is extortionate. The helicopters are daily bringing in the wounded to the Military Hospital, leaving them to the overworked doctors and to their fate. The refugees are flooding in. The Serbian military bloc does not allow a defeat. The "Politika" war commentator says in the issue dating from October 10: "Even without the use of its armour-mechanized units, the Army has reached the vital industrial centres in Croatia and practically divided up the Republic in three parts..."

It attributes the now evident catastrophe of Vukovar to "the peculiarities of city conflicts." The four-member Presidency has failed to convince the world that it is legitimate, Branko Kostic was on two occasions disgraced when Lord Carrington prevented him from speaking. Added to the diplomatic and military defeat (not a single successful incident was recorded), there comes a final blow, the "treason" of Montenegro which accepted the Hague agreement which Serbia indignantly refused to sign, stating that it is the question of preserving the honour of the Serbian nation. On top of this "the freemason Carrington" a few days ago retorted that "the recognition of the independence of Croatia and Slovenia has now become inevitable". Since the Serbian military bloc has begun losing ground, something should hastily be thought up - the more dramatic, the better. Milosevic has a taste for spectacle. And what could be more spectacular then his appeal to the foreign troops? An appeal may not be an appropriate term here. The United Nations were practically ordered to send the peace keeping troops to Croatia and the Croatians to accept the conditions dictated by the so-called Presidency, since "Yugoslavia will be forced to proclaim the state of war, call for the general mobilization and crush the illegal Croatian military formations" (an interview with Branko Kostic, newspaper "Vecernje Novosti", dated November 12).

The official Belgrade once again refused to admit the change of attitude concerning the sending of the peace-keeping forces. "There can be no talk of the turnabout in the official stands", claims Branko Kostic. "We have stated from the very beginning that we will consider any involvement of the foreign troops without our consent to be an act of aggression".

The Presidency, however, has simply "evaluated that now is the time to appeal to the United Nations with the suggestion to send in the peace-keeping troops to Croatia (Borisav Jovic). He gave an explanation. After a prolonged harangue against Croatia, the so-called Federal Presidency said in the letter to the Security Council president the request for sending the peace-keeping forces with the fact that only Croatia is violating the 12th cease-fire and because it wants to prevent "the further escalation of the conflict, the new casualties and the unscrupulous violation of the basic human rights as well as extensive material damage". Borisav Jovic talks about the "ruthless propaganda" against the federal Army, which is protecting the Serbian population from genocide and adds that the blue helmets would present "a big step forward in the suspension of the European sanctions against Yugoslavia". Academician Mihajlo Markovic said at the press conference of the leadership of the Socialist Party of Serbia, a few days before the letter was sent to the Security Council, explaining that the international peace-keeping force would be an excellent solution because in that case the various enemies of Serbia could no longer claim that it has claims on the Croatian territory.

The so-called Presidency is offering to return the Army units from Croatia in return for the foreign troops. In mid-October they had the following stand (in the letter to Van den Broek): "The Federal Presidency considers the retreat of the Army from the Serb-populated regions in Croatia to be absolutely inadmissible, since in that case they would be facing extermination. Thus the Yugoslav Presidency considers that the entire military force should stay where it is, until the political solution of the Yugoslav crisis is reached..." In that period, Kostic said to the AP agency that the solution could be found by introducing the "green belt zone" on the front line in Croatia, or rather the buffer-zone of the international peace-keeping forces".

Asked to explain that such a controversial attitude, Kostic said to the domestic journalists that he, actually, meant that the Army units present the only solution for the condition of the Serbs in Croatia until the political solution is reached, and "only upon reaching such an agreement could the green belt zone be introduced". A month later (November 11) Branko Kostic, who is still the Vice- President of the Yugoslav Presidency, wants it the other way around: "The Presidency considers the presence of the United Nations peace- keeping forces to be necessary in that region for the protection of the very lives of the Serbian population from the Croatian military formations..."

And, as he had written to the Security Council, "this would create the necessary conditions for the federal Presidency to, in the capacity of the Supreme Commander of the Yugoslav Armed Forces, pass a decision on the suspension of the Army involvement in the prevention of the inter-national conflicts on the Croatian territory". It is indicative that the Army accepted straight away the request for sending in the international peace-keeping forces. And while major- general Marko Negovanovic emphatically maintained that "the main task of all those who want to live in Yugoslavia and of those who want to separate from it peacefully should be to reject any notion of the involvement of the foreign armed forces".

Major- generals Nikola Uzelac and Andrija Raseta approved of the letter to the Security Council the day it was sent. "I think it should be done as soon as possible", said Uzelac. Raseta observed that the Army leadership would accept the sending of the United Nations peace-keeping troops to the affected regions in Croatia. According to AFP, Raseta added that the Army has come to accept the foreign troops now, since "the conditions in the field have altered". The two generals, however, differ in the estimated number of soldiers needed. According to Uzelac "a number greatly exceeding the two thousand figure is needed".

According to Raseta, "the two brigades of around three to five thousand blue helmets would be enough". Milosevic and Kostic have one more task to solve: to explain that their request for the peace-keeping troops is in no way similar to the Croatian request. And they are right - it really is not the same. When Mr. Mesic (the President of the Federal Presidency) called for the emergency session of the Security Council in mid-September concerning the sending of the UN forces to Croatia, which he supported with the fact that there has been "a military coup in Yugoslavia" and that "the Republic of Serbia has evident aggressive intentions, he has announced its desire to forcibly redraw the borders and annex certain parts of the neighbouring republics".

And, of course, he demanded that the foreign troops be placed on the border between Serbia and Croatia. Tudjman repeated that request immediately after the letter to the Security Council. The President of Croatia has also asked for the help of the Sixth American Fleet, "since no crisis can be solved or war ended without the intervention of the American armed forces. There are two million Croatians living in the United States and the American president should have their interests at heart". In short, the Croatian idea was for the foreign troops to come and shield Croatia from the aggression". They were probably relying on Act 42 of the UN Charter whereby the Security Council is "allowed to activate any air, sea or land forces necessary to keep or establish international peace and order". This was resorted to in the case of the Gulf war.

The Presidency is clearly asking for the blue helmets to be placed "on the line dividing the warring parties, but it would also welcome their presence around the entire territory where the Serbian population make an ethnic majority in Croatia" (Branko Kostic). The incomplete Presidency is, in effect, asking for a peace-keeping operation in Croatia, or rather the lining up of the peace-keeping forces on the border between the warring sides. The difference is not insignificant. According to the definition of the "International law" by Andrassy, the peace-keeping operations imply "such UN measures which include the use of the armed forces, not as a forcible measure directed against a violator, but for keeping the peace by preventing the armed conflict, or by bringing peace, but in such a manner that no armed forces are activated against one side or another".

The UN Charter does provide neither for the peace-keeping operations, nor for the peace-keeping forces, although it was applied in the case of a Korean war. On Tuesday the British TV network ITV has presented its new peace plan with which Lord Carrington is to come to Belgrade, the essence of which is that the Serbian regions in Croatia will be placed under the protection of the international peacekeeping forces. The Army will retreat from Croatia and the Serbs in Croatia will hold a referendum under the international protection, whereby they will decide whether they want to separate from Croatia. There was a meeting between Lord Carrington and Milosevic on Wednesday. The Milosevic's cabinet says that the talks have produced a conclusion that freedom and security of the Serbian people in two krajinas should be secured by the presence of the UN forces. That same day lord Carrington spoke with Tudjman as well, after which he said to the Croatian television that "the peace-keeping troops could enter the Croatian territory as a guarantee for the security of the Serbian population".

Tudjman, however, conditioned the arrival of the blue helmets to the retreat of the Army troops from Croatia. The Security Council has until this Friday not expressed its views concerning the involvement of the peace-keeping troops. Lord Carrington has said after talk with the Yugoslav politicians that the United Nations have not reached a decision yet, but that he is personally of the opinion that it would be better to send the World Organization forces, and that in the opposite case, they may have to appeal to the EC or the Western European Union (which Serbia would find much less acceptable). In any case, the security Council will first have to measure out the following problems: Yugoslavia is involved in an internal conflict without the elements of foreign intervention, which is contrary to the practice of the peace-keeping operations even if the warring sides consent to the arrival of foreign troops, which is the first and foremost condition which provides for the debate on the peace- keeping troops - Croatia is not the internationally recognized agent, so there are legal difficulties concerning the acceptance of its appeal.

The request was sent by the so-called Federal Presidency, which is considered illegitimate by all of the international institutions and organizations, even by the ones which do recognize the Yugoslav government as the legitimate representative of Yugoslavia. On the other hand, it is paramount that the hostilities in Yugoslavia be stopped as soon as possible and, since there is a minimum of agreement between the sides in the dispute concerning the arrival of the blue helmets, it would be very risky to miss this chance. Even the different notions concerning the position of the troops (on the border, or on the front) should present no problem. Tudjman, Milosevic and his faithful servants (Seselj agrees with the idea of the blue helmets if they take the Karlobag, Karlovac, Ogulin, Virovitica border) can go on making random calculations and deceiving their public. However, the sending of the blue helmets would in no case mean the international recognition of Croatia within its existing borders (if the blue helmets were to be positioned along the recognized border separating Serbia and Croatia), neither the recognition of the extended version of Serbia (in case the blue helmets were to go to the front). In this respect, Mesic's statement that the lining up of troops along the front line would mean the splitting up of the Croatian territory is totally untrue. The peace- keeping forces do not preclude the political solutions.

The UN is primarily concerned with the protection of international peace, or rather with putting an end to hostilities. Neither would the composition of the peace-keeping forces which would be sent to Yugoslavia present an insurmountable problem. The United Nations have no reason to force the infamous European fascists on Belgrade. The peace-keeping forces are always formed on the ad hoc basis, following the negotiations of the UN General Secretary with the countries which are prepared to send their contingents. The practice until now has been to send the list of such countries with the question: "do you agree"? The peace-keeping forces are always made up of soldiers from various countries, mainly the neutral and the non-aligned ones. This time they will be faced with a practical problem. In the previous cases we were dealing with the contingents of around a few thousand lightly armed men, who only fire in defence. Concerning the nature of the Yugoslav conflict, the dilemma presents itself of whether this would be enough. The crazed warriors on both side have until now shown no regard for the European observers, not even concerning the Red Cross or the international medical team. It is true that the peace-keeping forces would not come without the cease-fire agreement, but it is well known how the parties in these parts respect them. Since the countries sending their forces would have a lot of problem explaining to their public why their compatriots are dying for some Yugoslavia, it is possible that the need will arise for the more numerous and the better armed troops with greater authority. Since all of the previous Yugoslav efforts have only contributed to further conflict, the opening of a new possibility of stopping the conflict should be greeted with enthusiasm. It is better for the UN troops to come than for the domestic exterminating violence to persist, even if the most agile war protagonists were to later take all the credit.