Bileca Decides Upon Belgrade's Destiny?

At the beginning of April 1992 most parties of the political centre gave Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic full right to decide upon Belgrade's destiny, which Slobodan Milosevic is also doing for the public, only nobody actually believes in it. The opposition has now given up Milosevic's policy, leaving him to all alone with Karadzic at his side to manage as he can and to fulfill, if he wants to, his promise made in Paris.

The Bosnian Serbs however, have used every opportunity to arbitrate the political issues of FR Yugoslavia. The Bosnian Serbs Parliament in Bileca demanded an apology from the Montenegrin Parliament, after one Montenegrin MP had appealed that the Vance-Owen plan be accepted. The Social Democratic Party of Reformist in Montenegro believes that the requests that Montenegro gives unreserved support to the policy proclaimed in Bileca - are immoral. The Parliament of Herzegovina in mid October last year had a character of Pan-Serbian mini-gathering. It gathered together the most important representatives of the war lobby and received extensive publicity on the Serbia's state TV. The then Minister in Serbian Government Mr. Cvijan hailed the Parliament, promising that the Cossacks would soon arrive to aid their orthodox brother.

Hardly has there been a policy which was conducted with less responsibility for the future, and being left to the will of local hetmans, in whose narrow mindedness one cannot find a trace of awareness about what can be endured, why and for how long. the others are now concerned about that, counting for how long we shall be able to endure. But, those realistic estimates are not being understood here, even though they indicate that the roof is tumbling down. According to some foreign assessments the Gross National Product has dropped by 25% in 1992, and the losses that the country is recording under the blockade is reaching up to 10 billion US dollars. last year the industrial production plunged by 22%, while the car industry and nonmetal production marked a 50% fall since 1991. The foreign trade, reaching 2,5 billion dollars in exports before the implementation of sanctions, is reduced by 46% compared to 1991. The hard currency reserves were estimated at 1.3 billion dollars in December, 1992, and the foreign debt of Serbia and Montenegro at 6 billion US dollars.

The agriculture and electric energy production are "still operating normally" despite occasional shortage and the constant increase of prices; these two sectors might also collapse over a longer time-period, this being signaled by the announced strike of the energetic workers in Serbia.

Mid April the Union (guess which) will start distributing flour, sugar and cooking oil from the commodity reserves to the citizens, 10 million kg until May 20, a kilo of flour for one month per capita. One third of 2.4 million strong work force is on "forced vacations", receiving 80% of their monthly pay.

There is none to explain to the citizens of Serbia whether Serbia can, speaking in figures, endure the loss of another 10 billion dollars, without going bankrupt if the war in Bosnia continues and if the latest threats with isolation become the reality with the entrance of ships in the territorial waters and with closing off the Danube. Can she endure this without destroying the future, losing her youth, ruining the property and wearing out people.

The pulse of the public opinion was not examined, but some opinion polls indicated that those who rooted Radovan Karadzic "not to sign" outnumbered those who did not; an old lady said "I would have died, if he had signed it", not being aware that this way someone younger will die.

The collective punishment is catching up with Serbia while she lacks a mechanism to defend itself against it. One the other hand "the pride" "the national interests" stand the way of facing the proportions of the catastrophe. A slow, methodical international "pedagogy" is affecting the society more than the regime, but the voice saying this cannot be heard. the destiny of the so-called third, pro-European Serbia is sealed, and the opposition of the political centre was written off after being defeated 5 times... Some analysts conclude that all this is headed for either the return of one-party or a military junta. Nevertheless, it is definite that a parliamentary crisis is underway.

Meanwhile, the political right is scoring political points, dreaming about the orthodox Russia from Corfew to Kamchatka and pushing into further catastrophe. None capable of saying whether Serbia, which is pressed so much can feed and clothe this population in poverty (one third), 700,000 current and probably another 300,000 refugees, who might arrive from unfortunate Bosnia. Given the catastrophe's proportions it is not actually clear is it that the ruling Serbian nationalist want, while intent on the maps persistently overlook those proportions. Was the depopulation of the area from the Drina river to Knin, along with the destruction of cities, monuments, the life's continuity and the state of war in every village, the objective of the "national interests"? The official propaganda is not calculating with such defeats. The Socialist Party of Serbia's (SPS) ideologist, academic Mihailo Markovic said two months ago that he believed that the war was actually won and that military intervention was remote. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic is now making it clear that he wants cease-fire along with political bargaining.

Once again, the war propaganda has over the past weeks been created by authors who cannot realize that there is more blood in that drama than in Shakespeare's works. Gojko Djogo, the President of the Associations of the Bosnian Serbs has recently stated that a great task was carried out in Bosnia, at small sacrifice.

At one point, it was not clear who was under whose protection, nor where the capital is, in Belgrade or in Bileca. The Bosnian war lobby is holding the Belgrade regime hostage; on the other hand, the radical groups are putting pressure on men refugees to return to the front in Bosnia.

President of the Republic of Serb Krajina Goran Hadzic and Foreign Affairs Minister Aleksa Buha are now proposing a Pan-Serbian assembly, so that they could bare their teeth at the world.

Some assume that the assembly might take place in May, although the Serbian Socialists, aware of the foreign political situation, are hedging on the invitation; the Democrats are also hedging, proposing the meeting of the parliamentary groups, while their leader Dragoljub Micunovic is claiming that his party was most helpful to the Serbian Democratic Party in Bosnia (SDS). Matija Beckovic, one of the DEPOS leaders says gloomily, "As the things are right now, it is most realistic that we shall all meet in heavens".

Eventually, it was understood that Vitaly Churkin and Bosnian Serbs leader Radovan Karadzic stated something and Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic announced a press conference where he would speak about the end of the civil war in Yugoslavia. So soon?