Neither War nor Peace

In the thirties young Graham Greene described the Balkans as "the region of endless possibilities." It can always be worse in the Balkans that it already is; we've known that even without Graham Greene, but from our own painful experience.

Relying on his diplomatic tongue, the eloquent Bosnian Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic, once again found himself in the position to try to convince the Parliament of the Bosnian Serbs that it would be good to accept the Vance-Owen plan. A clever maneuver of the Bosnian Muslim leader, Alija Izetbegovic, who signed the maps, has left Karadzic all alone in the clearing; thus, the world's attention has been riveted to the Serb side, and, naturally, to the Serbian President, Slobodan Milosevic, whom everybody holds accountable for what is happening in Bosnia. It seems that someone has come to the situation's aid: combat flights over Eastern Bosnia have practically forced the patrolling of U.N. fighters which is due to start at 2 PM on Monday (the U.S., Holland, France and Great Britain have committed 70 aircraft); there were 13 no-fly zone violations which are attributed to the Serb side from 1st to 5th April only. The rumors talk about the "Air Force of the Drina Corps of the Army of the Serb Republic in Bosnia," which is apparently different from the Banja Luka Air Force of General Ninkovic. If this is true, then the continuation of escalation towards more serious military intervention in Bosnia is in the hands of Someone in the field. As of Monday, we are bound to learn what Someone actually has in mind.

The Parliament in Pale has already shown what could have been presumed: Karadzic has a problem with his own extremists. The historic 26th session of the Parliament of the Serb Republic in Bosnia, held in Bileca, seems to have been "badly prepared" (as the communist lingo would have it for the session which votes contrary to what was suggested): Karadzic's diplomatic skill did not meet with understanding, so that he was left to find comfort in the fact that he had turned out to be a "moderate politician" (it has already been said that anything is possible in the Balkans).

But, some preparations were made: the club of the Serbian Democratic Party MP's held its traditional closed meeting a day before the Parliament session. Karadzic and his team tried to explain it to the MP's that it would be good to accept those maps which are not disputable; this would provide for further bargaining but also for the lifting of sanctions against "Mother Serbia", which is by far more critical. The lifting of the sanctions was promised as a desperate (if not the last, as it had been hinted) gesture of good will and concession to Milosevic. It is not at all hard to imagine what the lifting of sanctions would mean for Slobodan Milosevic (who keeps promising that the "unjust sanctions will be lifted as soon as the truth about Serbia is out"): it would mean an invaluable victory, creating of fresh and more spacious room for future moves and for a long lasting "empire". 26th session of the Bosnian Serb Parliament in Bileca and Radovan Karadzic, the renown diplomat, had a key to such a major breakthrough. Karadzic did do his best in Bileca, but he still failed to convince the MP's (as it could be heard in the hallways afterwards) that they would not be duped once they have accepted the maps.

The meeting was broken up due to the general disposition, and the summons arrived from Belgrade that Karadzic and Momcilo Krajisnik (the Parliament Speaker) immediately set off for a round of consultations. The two allegedly met with Milosevic and Dobrica Cosic, the Yugoslav President, in Belgrade the very same night, when they were told that everything had been settled with Vitaly Churkin: the Bosnian Serbs will accept 70 per cent of the maps, the sanctions will be lifted, and Russia will take on the guarantees that the Serbs are not deceived. Another closed meeting of the Serbian Democratic Party's MP club was held on Friday, which Churkin attended as well, and the Parliament session started at noon. In his opening speech, Karadzic first laid the blame for all suffering and misfortune on the German lust for revenge (it comes free of charge, anyway) , and, then, declared the peace conference successful, as it proved that there is no cohabitation. In the end, he tried to persuade the MP's that the best course of action would be to accept and sign the maps, which he did somewhat inaptly and bashfully - as all reporters agreed. It later turned out that he had a sufficient reason for concern...

In a short part of the session, which was closed to the public, Churkin shed light on the choice between two options before the MP's: if the indisputable maps are accepted Russia will do all within her powers to continue to protect the Bosnian Serbs while the sanctions against the Federal Yugoslavia would be lifted in six weeks' time; if, however, the maps are not accepted, even more severe isolation is in store, and military intervention is not to be ruled out either. His speech was welcomed with stony silence: no one had a question for the Deputy Russian Foreign Minister which would to touch on the political project of vital importance for the Serbian cause. Vitaly Churkin, the man who had negotiated Yugoslavia's destiny with Milosevic and Cosic the night before, was flagrantly boycotted in Bileca.

Churkin also had an opportunity to attend the afternoon session of the Parliament, when the MP's gave their support to the stands, which the delegation of the Bosnian Serbs adopted at the peace conference in New York, and, unanimously refused the maps. On his departure from Bileca, Churkin told the journalists that the MP's could have been slightly more "constructive." The Parliament session went on all until the final document came - out of the blue: the draft resolution on continuing the peace negotiations, which said that the Bosnian Serbs accept 70 per cent of the maps. Moreover, there was an item in the resolution, which requested that all three sides put their war criminals on trial, the first time for the Bosnian Serbs to acknowledge its war criminals. Booing, whistles and commotion could be heard even before the reading of the resolution was over. Then, the MP's took turns at the speaker's platform, flying into a rage.

The Parliament session was adjourned late in the evening, only to be continued behind closed doors on Saturday. After only an hour, a new resolution was offered. The maps were flatly rejected in the resolution, in which there was no mention of war crimes. The resolution was unanimously adopted.

At first Karadzic was unable to provide a convincing interpretation of what had taken place: at a press conference, he spoke about the "interests of the Serbian people", "pressure", etc. A little later, with a typically diplomatic swiftness, he went on to talk about that "all they wanted was to help the international community pull out of this."

One would say that the refusal of the Parliament in Bileca got Karadzic (who signed the Geneva papers) along with Milosevic (who had forced him to, at least, for the sake of the international community). One would say, on condition that a more serious game was not at stake, that it all about a fraud within a fraud. Who can possibly benefit from a further escalation of the crisis, patrolling of the armed fighter planes over Bosnia, or a tighter blockade of Serbia? Perhaps, Karadzic's extremists will, those who know that there is no war without the help from Serbia, and that there is no help from Serbia under sanctions. The escalation of the war and tightening of sanctions seem to suit someone, who is using the ideological blindness of the extremist Serbs lost in their Serbian universe. Whom could the sealed off and cut off Serbia, somewhat like Albania of Enver Hoxha, suit? Such an outcome of the current crisis, which is someone's goal obviously, provides an ideal way for the international community to pull out of the Balkans. Is someone offering such an outcome?

A scandal of international proportions took place at the airport in Sarajevo on Thursday afternoon. At its check-point the inspection team of the Bosnian Serb Army - following an earlier information according to some sources (they went straight for it)- intercepted 44 crates of 12.7mm and 7.9mm ammunition. The boxes were found in a false bottom of a container with flour, on one of humanitarian trucks, headed from the Sarajevo airport to Butmir. On seeing this, UNPROFOR members thought of searching the loading zone of the airport, only to find some 8,000 bullets in addition to 24 bags of explosive (the total of up to 30,000 bullets). It was a disgrace: the reaction by the Serbs was described as "very emotional" (U.N.) or as "extremely furious"(BBC). Karadzic told Reuters that "they had known from the very beginning that certain individuals of UNPROFOR were cooperating with the Muslims," but that the "Command was not aware of it." "We have not used this for propaganda purposes, so that the incidents in the field are avoided," Karadzic said, adding that "the international community is responsible for the outbreak and the end of the war in Bosnia." Subsequently, the U.N. sources reluctantly admitted that there had been case when the weapons were found (hand grenades in potato bags, for example) in humanitarian convoys around Sarajevo, and said that individual initiatives, bribery and greed, in general, accounted for this. The Commander of the Bosnian Serb Army, General Ratko Mladic, was much sharper, while General Lars Erik Waldgroen, the new UNPROFOR Commander in former Yugoslavia, promised a "thorough" investigation.

The United Nations did not need this smuggling affair: the High Commissioner for Refugees has found itself, hopefully, blameless involved in a compromising story. The French soldiers in Bosnia (who provided protection to the convoy) have become a subject to verbal attacks of the Serbian propaganda. It is not difficult to imagine how the propaganda will exploit this scandal. Even more thorough checks of humanitarian convoys need not be mentioned.

The series of the Bosnian scandals (including the blockade of the UNPROFOR Commander in Bosnia, General Philippe Morillon and 150 Canadian soldiers on their way to Srebrenica) only further complicates the matters: threats of the Third World War have become more common than before, etc... But, everything boils down to it that everyone is making their share of noise while waiting for the 25th of April, the referendum day in Russia.

It is not quite clear at the moment whether Karadzic and Milosevic are each other's hostages or associates in a complex scheme. Karadzic cannot do without Milosevic, whereas Milosevic can without Karadzic - but that might turn out to be costly: the extremists of the Serb Republic in Bosnia are already openly accusing Serbia of indifference if not of treason. Therefore, Karadzic will be waiting for April 25 before either coming to terms with his own extremists - or getting rid of them.