Opposition in Croatia

The President of Croatia had undergone a fascinating metamorphosis in only a year - from winner to loser. He wanted and had all the power - thus he has to carry all the responsibility. With the support of last year he could do anything. But Croatia has fallen out of love with its President. According to an opinion poll recorded last month, Tudjman is ranked eighth in popularity in Zagreb, and sixth in Istria and Dalmatia. But, according to the ratings in the war-torn Slavonia, he would not even be included in the first ten. The Croatian National Guard are saying that, when they come back, Tudjman will be the first to get the taste of their revenge. According to "Globus" opinion poll, Tudjman received the vote of confidence from 42,5% of the respondents in September which was reduced to only about 26% some ten days ago. It means that he lost the confidence of one in four voters in only two months. Vain as he is, he is probably taking it hard. This could be the reason he is seldom to be seen in public. He has retreated with his advisers and secretaries to the Tito's villa, far removed from reality. It has fancy drawing rooms, where one can feel like Tito, well protected shelters with thick walls, where the war cannot be felt. But the ones who had seen with him speak of his evident frailty and bad humour. He sits on the army-like steel bed, the way prisoners do. Tudjman is not being reproached for getting Croatia involved in the war since Croatia is seen primarily as a victim. But Tudjman is to blame for everything else. He is guilty for not sticking to his election promises. He is to blame for the fact that Croatia has been so unsuccessful and disgraced in this war. He is to blame for its totally disoriented defence. He is to blame for the political inconsistency which has produced a puzzlement as to what the political stand of Croatia and, consequently, of Tudjman, actually is. The true extent of his downfall is marked by the fact that the word TRAITOR was put down next to his name on the opinion poll ballots. Whatever the President had undertaken until now was seen as being detrimental to Croatia. As if it had been ordered directly from its enemies. Each parliament session suggests the possibility of Tudjman's defeat. After the first session of this kind the President spoke of an attempted coup of the ustashi-chetnic profile. During one of the latest sessions of this kind he was saved by the explosion in Banski dvori, the protagonists of which have not been found yet. Added to this, the security reasons called for a secret meeting, which was a good excuse for keeping the TV cameras out. The Croatian leader, namely, was concerned about the possibility of "bombardments" from his own men. He had shown that he holds his personal safety most dear. It should have become obvious to everyone by now that the President will not share the destiny of the Croatian people. Just before the latest session, the dispute with the radical right- wing extremist Paraga and his party was initiated. This party has for a long time been a threat to Tudjman with its organized war and political extremism. With the recent unsolved case of the murder of one of the front men in Paraga's party and the near outlawing of the party complete with the charge, the ruling party has demonstrated its skill in using the repression apparatus and has shown that it will not have any qualms over using it for its own purposes. Furthermore, the parliament session which dealt with the sensitive issues of defence and security was closed for public. Repression and secrecy - hardly a recommendation for democracy. Although the conflict with Paraga's party was primarily aimed at the international scene, in order to distance itself from the ustashi (the Croatian extremists), it would be important to remember that Paraga's party is the biggest opponent of Tudjman and that it is the most aggressive in the strange and unprincipled coalition of Tudjman's political opponents. Although the continuation of the war serves the purpose of Croatian extremists, the political observers give the priority to the Croatian National Party. Its political popularity is steadily rising. Its political motto is "Croatia Can Do Better", although the ones who are acquainted with its leader Slavka Dabcevic- Kucar claim that she is only the female version of Tudjman. They are, however, reminding us that she has once failed the test the Tudjman now has: the inability to coordinate her desires with her abilities and the overestimation of her own powers. The fiercest opposition to Tudjman is, however, to be found within his own party, and not only its right-wing section which is openly flirting with the extremists. He has the section which has entered the political arena with honest enthusiasm which does have a nationalist flavour, but which certainly does not belong to the chauvinist caldron. The corruption within the leadership, which is gaining prominence, he sees to be the betrayal of his own ideals. The divisions within the ruling party and its inner animosities have assumed such proportions that it is now collapsing in all directions and it seems that only the wish to stay in power is keeping it together. Although it is precisely being in power which is tearing it apart. The Croatian political scene is now looking for a new leader, even a new Tudjman, but it is difficult to find a suitable choice. The opinion polls indicate that Stjepan Mesic /the President of Yugoslav Presidency/, has secured a high position. Tudjman could not always hide his dislike of Tudjman's popularity. The relations have, admittedly, deteriorated to such an extent that they are now travelling to the Hague separately, each on board his own plane. Mesic has to be sent a plane with no fuel from Belgrade, so he has to wait for a few hours at an Austrian airport until the money has been collected for kerosine. The "corridor stories" suggest an imminent clash between the two leaders, although this is difficult to envisage considering his current behaviour. But, he was met with enthusiastic public approval on his visits to Dubrovnik and it was evident that the people are using this gesture to distance themselves from Tudjman and for searching for the new leader. Devastated by the war and faced with the sense of betrayal and abandonment, the people are now in need of support and leadership. During those journeys it could be heard that the leaders should be with their people. And Mesic did it in a relaxed, unpretentious and charming way, travelling and appearing in a sweater and a pair of jeans. It is a big question, however, whether Mesic will use this advantage, bearing in mind his loyal conduct. In any case, he held unusually fiery and sharp speeches. Some explain it with his fight for survival and the search for a position within the political arena. But it is possible that he did it all in collaboration with the President so that he could attract from the right all those who were swayed by the outburst of radicalism. There are at least four reasons which, despite all that has been said, make it difficult to foresee the downfall of Tudjman. Firstly, there is no one to replace him. That is the President's own achievement, since he has, resorting to the methods of President Tito, cleared away all his potential opponents. Secondly, Tudjman has established a power network which will, coupled with his cunning ways, help him in achieving his feverish desire to keep his place at the top. Thirdly, many fear that in the case of Tudjman's downfall, there is only worse to follow. The fear from Paraga, who, incidentally, he himself had created is now helping the president. Racan's party /SDP-the Party of Democratic Change/ which has recently changed its name into the Social-Democratic Party, whereby it has introduced a new bone of contention into the left- wing section, gives this as the sole reason for its staunch support of the president. This is apparently the main reason for entering into a coalition with the Croatian Democratic Union. And fourthly, every attempt at overthrowing Tudjman implies a fight for power, which could lead to the dangerous instability in Croatia. The only stabilizing factor in Croatia is represented by the respectable government of premier Franjo Greguric, the Government of Democratic Unity, which is made up of the representatives of all the parties within the parliament. But is seems that it is precisely this fact that some are finding hard to accept. It is causing the tensions to rise. The simplest, and possibly the most adequate explanation would be to say that it contains too many reasonable people, the fact which the exalted "young Croatian democrats" find unacceptable. The Croatian extremists are at odds with the fact that the government is not constantly advocating the "holy war". Tudjman was forced to form such a government... Although Greguric is not having it easy, he had shown that he is a difficult man to sway and he had, despite the noisemakers, kept his dignified stand. He had, on top of this, recently joined the transnational party. Although his party is only a hundred days old, its reconstruction is rumoured. Although the departure of Greguric and the dismissal of the Government of the Democratic Unity is much more possible than the departure of Tudjman, both are extremely uncertain.