St Peter's Emissary

Mr. Vance ia an experienced diplomat, but somewhat unlucky, which might present a problem. He was the head of American diplomacy during the mandate of President Carter. At that time the States were involved in a "skirmish" with huge and then powerful Iran, which at the beginning of the Islamic Revolution somewhat resembled the Yugoslavia of today, although it was not falling apart. It was also the end of a tyrannical regime, replaced by an even more ruthless, fanatic and hopelessly obsolete one. The State Secretary Vance and National Security Counselor Zbignev Bzezinski presented to President Carter two different plans for saving Iran from fundamentalism. According to one analysis from that period, both plans were good, but the wavering Carter was not consistent in accepting any of them and the Ayatollahs won. Similar wavering exists today in connection with the Yugo-crisis, only this time not solely by the States but of the whole world as well. It was believed that this country is sufficiently fashioned on the European model, just like Shah's Iran. But like Iran, Yugoslavia was forcibly and prematurely shaped according to the Western pattern, with the help of the Western money, corruption and police terror. The national fundamentalism is triumphant now, instigated less by the revolt against the communist ideological dictatorship than by the hatred towards the Western individualism. The West is taking long to recover from this shocking paradox. The Democracy is having a hard time realizing that it did not defeat the communism, and finds it even more difficult to resign itself to the emphatic rejection of what is considered to be progressive. In the view of this, Yugoslavia is the best, i.e. the perfect horrifying example. Perez de Cuellar's emissary was the last to witness that and more thoroughly than his predecessors. Namely, Mr. Vance went to Vukovar, shortly after the Army took it. I believe all his impressions from the previous talks with his hosts have faded away, perhaps his entire outlook has changed. His task was to estimate the conditions for the arrival of the UN troops and I guess he concluded that no one is ever to be sent to this inferno. It is well known for how long and for what price the Vukovar battle was waged. Is it possible that the world is so unimaginative as not to be able to conceive what this town looked like, before it was broadcasted? Who has the right to abhor the crimes and dead civilians and to check their nationality? Is it the Army, which was conquering it, which was for months showering its houses and streets with grenades? (General Kadijevic /Federal Ministry of Defence/ in the state of complete moral paralysis, congratulates his officers on the victory. It is not clear why he does not bomb Zagreb right away and thus save all the Serbs, since there are many of them there.) Judging from this, the Army is ready to wage this war till the end, until seizing the Banski dvori (Tudjman's presidential residence), not for a second doubting its conviction that it has finally found its raison d'etre. It would once again embark on defeating the Axis Powers. This ambition could be frustrated only by Slobodan Milosevic, whose plans are more modest and do not include conquering Zagreb and defeating Tudjman. The only thing he wants are his new borders, which he considers to be fair. This belief of his is being backed by "the duke" Seselj (the leader of the right wing Serbian extremists - the chetnics). He probably thinks he has reached his aim. The war would soon stop interesting him if only his passion for destruction was not stronger than his desire to create and construct. From time to time Milosevic tries to make something good, but it always turns out that there are unsurmountable obstacles on the way. He wanted to hastily overthrow the Federal Government and the "stubborn" Prime Minister Markovic, and appoint the new one which would fit the image of his new state. But it went wrong for him. The world public opinion reacted strongly and other Yugoslav republics would not give their consent. The EC refuted its threat concerning the recall of the ambassadors, but one should not rely on that too much. In any case, he must have realized that it will be some time before his incomplete Yugoslavia is inaugurated. He is mounting the pressure on Bosnia and Macedonia, whereas the Army is keeping a firm grip on the disobedient Montenegro. Obviously, he will have to go on waging his dirty little war and will not live to see all his enemies consent to whatever he is offering. Milosevic is simply a man who is climbing the escalator going the other way. The Yugoslav crisis, Serbia and Milosevic himself have become a crucial problem for the European Community. Europe has to make its presence felt by stopping the war quest of Serbia and the Army. The European diplomacy has, hastily but with honest and serious intentions, tried to find a solution. It has failed. For now, it seems improbable that anyone would in the near future sit down to negotiate with the domestic cannibals disguised as politicians and statesmen. The time has now come for the sanctions to be implemented and for the military intervention to be prepared. The arrival of the Blue Helmets depends on Mr. Vance's report. But, this would not be a military intervention, and, besides, they can only come when it is already too late. There is no question as to whom the European and the world public consider to be the aggressor in this war. But the fact that Germany is decidedly pro-Croatian is greatly facilitating the position of Serbia and the Army, since the others shudder at the German power and appetite, and they are trying to keep the balance. Milosevic surely must know that he is safe for as long as the war goes on. The world has the way to punish him, ignore his conquests and put Serbia in the same position Albania was in for decades. As soon as the war is over, all his present visitors and world emissaries will keep away from him as if he were a leper. Somebody of Vance's reputation would normally refuse even a letter from him. But the war can go on indefinitely. Serbia has become a state with no future, and it is kept alive thanks to the fact that its youth is killing and being killed. The Vukovar victory and the scenes of death and destruction did not improve the image of Serbia and the Army, although it should not be difficult to prove the atrocities of the Croatian side. The world, however, knows only too well who the aggressor is and that same public is able to bring pressure to bear on their governments to take the necessary steps, if only out of humanitarian regard. The chances of the military intervention are increasing, although it is not as yet clear who exactly will be behind it. The option of the direct clash with the Army is probably being discussed for some time. Another form of intervention - recognition and armament of Slovenia and Croatia - is likely to follow soon. This option is much cheeper and much safer for the West, but it would probably result in new domestic conflicts and more casualties. The most famous statement of Dobrica Cosic (the Serbian best selling nationalist writer) - that the Serbs lose in peace and win in war - served as a main incentive and justification of this war. Apart from being wrong, it is an idea of evil, hatred and revenge. But, at least when this war and the aspirations of the present Serbian power holders are concerned, we should conclude that Serbia will not have real peace until it loses the war. Most wars are better to be won, but Serbia is waging this one against itself and its future.